Imagining a World with No Computers

Imagine there's no computers. It isn't hard to do.

With apologies to John Lennon, it really isn't that hard to do. At least computers you can't use with one hand.

Talk of the death of the "traditional computer" has been around for a while, and is still premature, though sales have been in steady decline for years, notwithstanding a significant upgrade cycle over the past few. And it's a fair (though I'd argue rhetorical) counter that smartphones are really just the latest incarnation of computers, whose size has steadily declined since the days when one could fill a room.

Back then some pretty smart people who believed in computers actually didn't believe there was much of a market for them. People like IBM President Thomas Watson, whose famous words on the subject were: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

Sure, that was 1943. But someday, Watson may be right, in an unexpected way.

Nobody could have predicted the extent to which computers ate the world. Just as surprising? How the really exciting work shifted in the last decade to a parallel universe: mobile telephony. And that it was a niche computer player, Apple, which drove the computing paradigm to change lanes and then accelerate.

The smartphone was not a linear, organic development in the development of the computer. It was a genuine paradigm shift — not only totally different, but demonstrably better than the old normal. It happened not because of the relentless drive to miniaturize computers, but to cram them into a device which, all on its own, became a must-have.

The smartphone was a better mobile phone, of course, and even replaced a surprisingly non-trivial number of other things which eBay last year estimated would otherwise cost about $11,000.

But the real action isn't knocking out cameras, GPS devices and flashlights. The main event is taking down the PC. When it happens we might call it (sorry) a TKO — a technical knockout.

Something along these lines must already be happening since PC makers are feeling the heat. Just yesterday, Intel, half of of the "WinTel" dynamic duo with Microsoft that dominated the 80s and 90s, lowered its Q1 earnings forecast, citing "weaker than expected demand for business desktop PCs and lower than expected inventory levels across the PC supply chain." Shares in the company declined sharply in a decidedly up market. Three days ago Intel shares rallied on a report by Venturebeat's Mark Sullivan that the company would supply Apple with a modem chip for iPhones.

Do the math.

I'm making a number of big leaps here, though not as many as this guy, who three years ago predicted that by 2022 "tablets computers will be archaic and obsolete" and that "Desktops and laptops … will soon be nothing more than dusty cupboard-dwelling relics and museum exhibits."

I'm not that wide-eyed an optimist. I know we don't necessarily gravitate towards what's possible. Internet telephony has been possible for two decades, and we still buy minutes from wireless companies.

And there are pain barriers for hard-core smartphone use. The biggest one everyone shares — there is nothing like a full-sized keyboard. That's why someone, eventually, is going to succeed with what so far have been a bunch of very wonky stabs at turning your smartphone into a desktop replacement. Maybe even this one, which serendipitously landed in my inbox the other day, and makes a quixotic Green appeal to boot.

But already one of the major smartphone innovations — the multi-touch screen — has become our interface of choice. That's why hybrids like the Surface Pro and the high-end Chromebook Pixel have brought this feature to traditional machines. It's infectious. After I reviewed the original Pixel I kept habitually (and fruitlessly) tapping the screen of my own laptop for days.

The tipping point, when using a laptop is a chore reserved for special cases, will arrive quietly. It will not be a revolution. But the evolution has surely begun. We clearly are not using computers less, just using PCs less, and in a very Darwinian way.

I haven't scientifically quantified my smartphone vs. laptop use, but the vast majority of my networking and emailing and web surfing is mobile. About half of the time I write on my iPhone. I tend to use my computer only when the task is not mobile-friendly or because of arbitrary work requirements. Somewhere along the way I stopped using a tablet at all.

In other words, I only resort to a traditional computer when I have to. This wasn't a decision, or a challenge. It's natural selection, and it's irreversible.

What's your smartphone use these days vis-a-vis regular computers? Are you naturally ramping it up? Resorting to a laptop or tablet for a bigger screen or a decent keyboard? Are those the only big pain barriers for you?