Imagining Catastrophe: The Key to Unlocking Climate Resilience

This series is a must-listen for anyone interested in finance, climate change, and risk management. We begin the third episode of this riveting series on a sombre note.

My guest is Sandy Trust, a distinguished UK actuary who sits on the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries council. Sandy leads the research paper collaborations with Earth System scientists on climate change and sustainability topics and is past Chair of the IFOA’s Sustainability Board. He advises a range of industry and policy climate initiatives on climate risk and net zero approaches.

I’m thrilled to share the latest episode of our podcast, where we dive deep into the intricate world of risk management in the context of climate change. This episode is packed with insights that will not only broaden your understanding but also spark your curiosity about the complexities we face. Here’s a sneak peek at the

??Key Takeaways from the Episode??

1. Psychological Barriers and Communication Challenges:

Understanding the Risks: Many people struggle to grasp the magnitude of climate change risks due to misinformation and disinformation.

Role of Imagination: Envisioning potential scenarios, even the far-fetched ones, is crucial for effective risk management. Think of it as preparing for the worst to safeguard the future.

2. The Importance of a Holistic View:

Systemic Nature of Risks: Just like the global financial crisis, climate change risks are interconnected. Breaking them down into isolated components can lead to significant oversights.

Learning from History: Queen Elizabeth II asked why no one foresaw the financial crisis. It was a failure of imagination and systemic risk appreciation. We can’t afford to make the same mistake with climate change.

3. Science and Risk Management:

Different Approaches: Scientists are cautious and wait for confidence in their findings, while risk managers discuss unlikely but impactful risks. This difference can lead to misunderstandings about the severity of climate risks.

Communicating Effectively: To inform better decision-making, it’s vital to bridge the gap between scientific assessments and risk management.

4. Climate Sensitivity and Policy Implications:

Understanding Sensitivity: How sensitive is our planet to greenhouse gas emissions? This is crucial for predicting future temperature increases and associated risks.

Sobering Statistics: The IPCC estimates an 18% chance that climate sensitivity could exceed 4.5 degrees Celsius. This uncertainty challenges policymakers to consider the full range of potential risks.

5. The Need for Proactive Risk Management:

Adopting a Proactive Mindset: Prioritizing worst-case scenarios in policy-making can help us better prepare for the potential consequences of climate change. It’s time to confront these challenges head-on, using imagination and comprehensive risk assessments to safeguard our future.

Why You Should Listen:

This episode is a must-listen if you’re passionate about understanding the complexities of climate change and the importance of effective risk management. We delve into the psychological, systemic, and scientific aspects of this global issue, offering a holistic perspective that’s both enlightening and actionable.

??Want to Delve Deeper?

Here are some of the specific research reports (with links) that Sandy refers to:

2022 - Tipping points with Sir David King (CCAG) – climate change is a risk mgt problem, tipping points change everything

2023 - Emperor’s New Scenarios with Tim Lenton (Exeter) – climate change scenario analysis is understating risk, we need to work backwards from ruin

2024 - Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail with Tim Lenton (Exeter) – warming is accelerating, and the climate may be much more sensitive than we think to GHGs

Listen here to Imagining Catastrophe: The Key to Unlocking Climate Resilience

You can also go directly to Spotify and Apple and download the entire series.

The 5Cs Podcast, book and communities are about shining a light on a better path. Think of it as a global village of business people giving Planet Earth a hand up. You can find Charlene Norman here on LinkedIn and here. For more thoughts from the 5Cs Podcast, subscribe on Substack.