I'm worried about the Metaverse

You might have heard about Facebook rebranding itself as Meta – and with FB/Meta and an increasing number of old and new tech players jumping on the metaverse train. I'm worried about?WHO WE ARE GOING TO BE fifty years from now, because, essentially, the metaverse is about us being within the computer rather than us accessing the computer, about us being immersed in virtual worlds at all times.

First up, two things:

1) What is the metaverse?– Google essentially defines it as?"a virtual-reality space in which users can interact with a computer-generated environment and other users."?Simple enough, right? Sounds pretty harmless, too. We've had a semblance of this thing around for years, with?The Sims?(first released way back when in 2000), and?Second Life?(started out in 2003).

2) Facebook/Meta?– ?Here's part of Zuckerberg's recent presentation about his metaverse vision?about their platform called "Horizon" – it'll give you a great sense of what's definitively to come.

Based on humanity's social media journey, we know that it works, we know that people flock to it, and we know how much of the bad comes with the good provided by these platforms.?What?the metaverse does is supercharging what's already being done.

Today we know how social media transformed from playful environments to platforms run by organizations of nation-sized proportions and wealth with the clear aim to keep the user ON that same platform for as long as possible.?We know, and we have been warned.?Many have seen "The Social Dilemma" on Netflix and heard from whistle blower?Frances Haugen. Heck, last year during the Swiss Re Tech Days I got to?interview Harper Reed, CTO for Barack Obama's 2012 re-election campaign. He shared how they used social media for good – but he also said that, four years later, that same knowledge was weaponized. Whether it's the?Cambridge Analytica?scandal, or Russian hacker/bots, or the spread of falsehoods and conspiracies, the addictive qualities fostered by algorithms,?today we know just how problematic social media is.

I'm not disputing any of the good – but we have learned that a) companies don't deliver the half of what they should with regard to privacy and good governance and that b) the massively addictive power of these platforms keeps working ever better as algorithms are tweaked and features are added to keep users hooked.?So simply imagine the social media world of today – the metaverse doesn't just double the effects of today, it'll multiply those effects in the extreme.?Here's more about the?addictive power of social media?(dopamine and all).

What Zuckerberg shows you (see link above – or just Google it) looks playful, game-like – and something you can use in private, with friends, for work, and, of course, for commerce. Endless virtual shopping opportunities. You live in a crappy studio apartment? No worries, in the metaverse you can have your mansion. Why buy a large TV screen for your real-world place? You can simply activate a screen in your virtual home. Want to live in the mountains? By a lake? Any views are instantly possible (no doubt there will?vistas that cost a little extra). All you need is a computer, an account and some VR goggles.??I know, this still sounds playful. But the more attractive the environment, the more people will stay in there?– and if it offers them anything they want?– watch your Netflix, meet your friends, do your shopping – lots of people WILL lose themselves in there. This absolutely is going to happen – because for platform providers it simply means?more immersive = more addictive = more financial growth.

I've talked about the addiction challenge. I've not even mentioned the data/privacy challenge. Zuckerberg talks about privacy and choice, of course – does anyone, based on past experience, buy any of that??Data's the gold and the fuel their algorithms thrive and improve upon.?Zuck also talks about interoperability – the idea that whatever happens on FB's metaverse can be used and shared across platforms with others … Well, a) I don't expect that to happen – platforms will continue to compete and not share for the common good and b) imagine if it actually were to happen – it would simply mean that all the data you've handed to one platform would be available to all platform providers. Either way, none of it passes the smell test.?

Futurist Gerd Leonhard?has the same concerns and, with regard to data privacy, puts it very nicely:?"The more we connect, the more we need to protect."?Here's a 40min session he did on the topic:

Personally, I'm less concerned with us being more and more transparent. In fact, I'm somewhat resigned to it. I think the cat's out of the bag. We've learned that anything we put out there, is stored somewhere and used by someone. I think that, on the data/privacy front, all we can do is work with the law and regulators to curb and guide as much as possible. Yes, whatever can be protected, must be protected. But again, that's not my main concern.

My number one concern is the question posed at the beginning:?WHO WE ARE GOING TO BE fifty years from now.?You might have heard of?Ready Player One?– an excellent novel, made into an effective film by Spielberg in 2018. In that story, the metaverse is called Oasis, but that's about the only difference to Zuckerberg's Horizon vision. The novel gives you the world of 2045 – a time when, because of global warming and economic stagnation, people around the world increasingly live almost exclusively in the virtual world where things are fun and exciting - as opposed to their real lives that are filled with messy realities.

It's all about the addictive power of social media. If you follow a few basic hygiene/discipline steps (such as making it a conscious point to completely turn off and walk away from electronic devices; turning off notifications; not following recommendations; filtering, etc.), you'll be just fine, whether it is today's social media, or tomorrow's metaverse. BUT, we (our brains) have shown just how willingly we jump into those rabbit holes and how joyously we spiral ever further.?The addictive power is by design – and it is going to continue to evolve and improve.?The metaverse is social media on steroids.?

From an economics point of view, the metaverse worlds will be a boon, no doubt about it. Valuations will continue to go through the roof and commerce will flourish in those virtual worlds. But I see immense danger in the metaverse for humanity. Some will be able to handle it, just as today. But many won't. Living in the virtual world will increase, will become so immersive that people will stay in there for good.?I feel like Cassandra – but it genuinely feel that this will be cataclysmic for humanity and what it means to be human.

If I had a say I would rule out metaverses unless what sorely needs fixing in current social media worlds is fixed. Proper guardrails – to safeguard against addition and privacy/data violation.?It would mean curbing big player powers – and that's thus something that's very unlikely to happen. GDPR is a nice thought – but social media is global – this would need a global agency with vast overseeing powers, with teeth. Again, I don't see that happening.?I fully understand Zuckerberg's vision – it gets him more of everything he's done before – as said, it'll be social media on steroids and that means it'll be profits on steroids.

My vision remains one that is entirely opposite.?One that isn't about virtual reality and us being entirely immersed in technology – but instead one where we live in the real world and where technology has become entirely invisible. I can see a future where tech is everywhere, but unseen, where augmented reality allows us to live our lives in the real world. A place where, because of technology, we're freer, more knowledgeable, more connected, and more protected. That is also a possible future.?In that tech-powered world, we'd live in the real world, we'd keep smelling real flowers, we'd keep holding real hands, we'd keep seeing real smiles and we'd keep receiving real hugs.

Sigh. Like I said, the world of metaverses is inevitable.?This isn't even a slippery slope – this is a well-soaped Himalayan rollercoaster slide.?It'll work. People will hop on it. It'll be fun, it'll be exciting – it'll even feel real … and heck, who needs real life when real life is so human – aka so messy. For a while, as individuals, we will retain choice. For a while, we will be able to choose to immerse ourselves in a metaverse, or not. But over time I can see that products and services will only be accessible via the metaverse … over time, we may very well all be in there, whether we want to or not. When that happens, what remains are still the aforementioned basic steps (that far too few will employ on a daily basis).

As pretty a picture as Zuckerberg shows us with his well-oiled vision presentation, it gives me the creeps and deeply worries me.??