I'm not sure we are handling this well...

I am troubled by a great deal of what I am seeing at the minute, and here is why.

I work in an industry that cares for vulnerable elderly people. Right at the sharp end of the impact of Covid-19. We have to take measures to isolate and protect. We also take the measures to ensure maximum hygiene at all times. However, there may come a time when some of the people we care for may need the help of the NHS. I really hope not, but that is a real concern.

We are still at a relatively early stage of infection in the UK and Ireland, and can learn from the other nations caught short by the virus.

The government laid out a strategy to manage the course of the illness through the UK. What I liked about the strategy was that it was led by the Chief Scientific officer and the Chief Medical Officer. Check their bios, by the way, they are better qualified than anyone on social media. The strategy dealt with some quite complex ideas, and the CSO actually stated (very quietly) that some people needed to get ill to create the herd immunity. This idea has since been abandoned, publically. Presumably much too difficult to handle. This strategy was to accept that there will be a high number (but unknowable number) of cases, its the distribution of infections they want to tackle. Namely, spread this out.

The strategy is different from other countries, this doesn't make it wrong, doesn't make it right. These are complex times and there is not necessarily a right answer. However it is was based on one overriding principle - that when the NHS is called upon it will not be swamped. And, it surely will be called upon greatly no matter how many people work from home. The approach was low key - keep going as usual, wash your hands, keep social distancing but do not cancel everything. Most who get ill, will barely notice and there will be the care for those who need it when they need it. That means the chances of saving the vulnerable is better. Seems a decent strategy.

Within 48 hours this has been thrown out the window. Thrown out the window by people who are not the Chief Scientic Officer, but who run companies, organise events, run football clubs or sporting occasions. The government has been forced to react and now with strategy A chucked in the bin, strategy B appears to be to get ahead of the stampede of the rest of country taking preventative action.

It has all been well meaning. I mean, the government strategy was utterly counter-intuitive. Everybody wants to stop their (overwhelmingly strong and healthy) employees from getting ill. Football clubs dont want their players to get ill. Young fit men, note, are the best at dealing with this virus. Sporting organising bodies don't like how they would be percieved if they encourage mass gatherings at a time of national crises. I have seen the Bath half marathon being lambasted by experts who are not the chief medical officer. LinkedIn is full of "stay strong, we can get through this (online) together" homilies. Optics of siege.

So, what's the effect? Well - it certainly adds to the panic. Can you believe even M&S is out of loo roll these days? That chap who sells you coffee outside your office will be bust in a month. Stabucks wont. No complaints about the lack of small local cafes if you work from home for a few weeks, please. Hospitality industries will be crippled. I fear for restaurant owners as people go in self imposed isolations. Life will be very difficult for people in industries that we cannot expect. Amazon will be fine though. After this the big boys will still be there, but the SMEs will struggle like hell. That was most certainly not in the Govt strategy.

What about the health impacts?

The strategy of lots of us (but probably not as many as worst case) getting this over a longer period of time, but keeping a flat infection profile is dead. It is of course impossible to predict what will happen, and despite years popping in and out of Kings Building at the university of Edinburgh I can simply not claim to be a scientist. However I know enough to listen to actual experts.

However - here is my fear.

In a few weeks people will probably get bored of the isolation game. Infections will appear to have plateaued, it will look like all has worked. People may still work from home, but meet 10 people for coffee and go out in the evenings. Social distancing will be forgotten, the virus will have a nice bow wave of contact to ride on, and we see a massive surge. The real experts advised against going too soon, that's why they kept it moderate. When you start off by shouting, what do you do when you need to shout? The well intentioned, but ignoring government advice actions, then have an adverse impact.

Infections then spike in the way they did in an unsuspecting China and Italy.

The intentions of all these organisations, official bodies and devolved governments are admirable but they are at odds with the government strategy. Possibly it was a strategy that was too difficult for people to grasp, went against natural reactions of people to withdraw. The media certainly haven't helped by describing this as the "deadly coronavrius" (btw for the vulnerable population for this, most things are pretty deadly).

My fear is that the very thing we want to avoid is created by people who thought they knew better.

I look in the press and even on this platform and I see how fearful for themselves people are. So many are in a state of dread about this and with the media intensity and the fear stoked, people who have nothing to worry about, will only suffer in a minor way start to hit A&E.

The NHS then gets overwhelmed with the spike and with the rational, but needless reaction of a terrified and selfich population.

That makes it really difficult for the people who will need the NHS. The old, the sick and the already vulnerable.

This is not a "carry on as usual" message - this is a "follow the advice of the real experts" message. Don't doubt the data they use. Don't question their politics. Don't follow the social media safety officer experts. This is not the time for the self indulgent everyone has a valid opinion 21st century social media bollocks.

Wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands. Keep a distance and try not to touch your face.