I'm off the fence! Have I got life after the vote right or am I too optimistic?

It is now less than a day before we go to the polls to vote on whether we stay in or leave the EU and I have been fascinated by the debate. What has amazed me is the lack of realistic positive reasons why each side should secure your vote for their preferred outcome, and the complete lack of explanation about some of the likely scenarios. So I feel motivated to give you my view of the world which comes from listening to the debate, independent experts (Like HSBC’s head of Economics) and my own instincts.

 If we vote to stay:

 Big business will breathe a sigh of relief and get back to business, small business will have a mixed viewpoint (most of us who run smaller firms are around middle age and would like us to take control back from Brussels) some will feel pretty flat, which cannot help their immediate business decisions. The economy is likely to remain pretty much unchanged and David Cameron and most of the government will breathe a sigh of relief, as will the EU Organisation.

• All the factors of immigration, precious resources – pressure on schools to The NHS and our civil servants gold plating EU rules will continue and we will continue to be just a “Member State”.
• The Euro Zone will continue to face economic challenges; socialist working practice strife in France, to yet another Greek bailout. The wrong Euro value for the Southern Countries’ currency will cause the EU to move evermore towards a federal position where the northern countries will have to write off southern countries’ ‘impossible to pay’ debt. (But this is mostly their problem not ours.)
• Once there is a near ‘United States of Europe’ where the poorer countries are brought into economic line, where taxes are harmonised and where all countries have to live within their means, then things will change. Europe will have to become more efficient, will have to reform to deal with many areas of unrest and obvious efficiency and accountability improvements, which will need some treaty changes. Bizarrely, that probably mean another referendum in the UK on treaty acceptance.
• The UK as a non-Euro, non-Schengen, less open, but more prosperous country will do just fine and if our politicians have any sense they will say “that was close and Brussels it’s because you are in desperate need of sensible reform that we nearly left the club – look how hard we worked to stay, now give us what was agreed and also we want some extra changes and control to appease our very divided nation.” And if Brussels has any sense they will acquiesce.
• If the politicians don’t get their act together on many important domestic issues which are affected by continued mass EU immigration, then over time many may wish they voted for the UK to leave. As long as the politicians want to be voted back in, they will really have to work harder to solve the existing stresses and make sure our membership of the EU works. As a business owner, I’ll probably be fine as long as we keep adapting.

 If we vote to leave:

 After the initial government shock that they failed to convince the population to remain (in spite of firing off every possible doom laden threat) they will face the challenge of deciding whether to make the threats come true or to accept that they have to be as positive about our chances as they can. They will need to get to grips with dealing with stunned EU Bureaucrats and begin conversations with all those global countries with emerging economies, to broker direct trading arrangements for when we leave. We may see U-turning such that vote remain-ers will wonder why on earth they were persuaded to ‘Vote In’ by the same people who become positive about our chances outside the EU.

• The unintended consequence of wanting to secure new EU immigration controls will probably have an inverse immediate impact of mass Eastern European migration to the UK whilst EU rules allow free movement. Swift emergency legislation to deal with the unprecedented tide will surely be required and a points system to allow quality migration would have to happen quickly even if we breach EU rules.
• Very quickly, the Brexit plans from the UK Government and Brussels which had considered the various scenarios, would quickly conclude free trade between the EU and the UK to stabilise markets and avoid pulled investment decisions on both sides.
• Our early pre-negotiations with global countries might actually go so well that internal investment to the UK more than compensates for pulled EU investment. Possibly the UK could be like Hong Kong is to China - a trade hub, a manufacturing exemplar, a financial service centre (even more important than at present) and an example to other countries about how democracy can really change the direction of seasoned politicians and so-called experts for the better.
• Because the UK is such a robust country in terms of its various strong industries, world standard universities, tech firms, pharma and financial businesses, as Peter Hargreaves of Hargreaves Lansdown says, an amount of collective national stress of being an independent country will be very good for us. Innovation and productivity should improve. James Dyson and The CEO of JCB are also very positive about our status going forward. James Dyson, just today said that we’d be mad not to seize our chance.
• And what of The EU? Or the emerging US of E? It will surely have to reform and like its relationship with Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and others, its new relationship with the UK will become understood and established. They will have to show due respect because of our global status and the continued importance we place on their quality workers we accept into the UK. Also our spend on their products and services and our massive impact on their culture and our desire to travel cheaply to their countries to spend our valuable, hard earned foreign currency (￡’s). This will mean that much will continue as at present. Also the security bodies, science research bodies and most obvious cross-Europe organisations will find a way to include The UK because that’s in their interests as much as it is ours.

 I am about 48% IN and 52% OUT and re-reading the above I hope this comes across. This said, it would be easy to be the other way round. I know there is a risk of an economic slow-down but I don’t see it, the only cause might be a punitive emergency budget if it was passed. Property prices will fall anyway due to the new disincentives and taxes on private landlords as people sell off their extra flats and houses.  What I do know is that with a year or so of anxiety about getting new EU and global agreements in place, we may collectively become a smarter, leaner, more ambitious country getting better national results and be in a great place to start to ride the next economic prosperity wave.

Why do I think this? Because we had a similar feeling of business freedom when I started M12 Solutions back in 2003, breaking free from Azzurri who were much larger – we worked as partners until 2006 before we went our separate ways. Our early significant success is still a business foundation and we are still innovative, ambitious, hard-working and provide outstanding customer service. If, as a country we collectively feel similar and if we are well led, then we could become a quality ‘next generation’ nation. That said, even if we remain IN, this recent uncertainty and collective appreciation of the very many important issues will undoubtably ensure that many matters cannot now be ignored, both for the UK and within the EU.

 Do vote!

 Andrew Skipsey