IIR's Global Refining Report ~ Optimism misplaced..

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--IIR's weekly Global Refining Report gives you the latest inside intelligence on outages, derates, shutdowns, closures, delays and more.

Tomorrow's news, Today  									June 26, 2020

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Market Commentary: 

Optimism misplaced?  OilPrice reports, “When looking at the foggy picture currently being painted by the news, publications, and facts on the ground, the only real conclusion that can be drawn is that the ongoing price rally is not yet based on market fundamentals. The ongoing demand hike, as shown by some analysis in Asia, is not based on recovering demand of consumers or industry, but largely caused by refinery runs that are taking advantage of the relatively low oil prices.”

Also, recently written in the Houston Chronicle, ““This week the market pushed through a 3 1/2 month high, and then all the sudden reporting about new cases seemed to break the back of the rally,” said Gene McGillian, vice president of research at Tradition Energy. “We have record amounts of oil and fuel in storage and still uncertainty about demand going forward.”

So seems reality is setting in, forcing the recent market rally to pause with prices even pulling back from $40.  As market participants assimilate the news & fundamentals.  What it all means.  Only thing known for certain is uncertainty reigns.

Therefore, within this Global Refining Report, IIR hopes to shed some light on what is transpiring from a Refinery Operations perspective as the Global Refining Index (working with ADUs) illustrates what is happening to crude operationally available capacity and how refineries are de-rating and operating overall in these times.   The Global Refinery Maps depict the COVID-19 Impact as well as the non-COVID-19 outages.  Also, you will find both a Capacity Offline table to quickly display weekly what the available operating capacity by region is, not to mention Area Charts, which visualize COVID-19 Impact and non-COVID-19 capacity offline in Asia, Europe and North America.  

Petroleum Refining Highlights

June 26, 2020    PBF on June 26, 2020 restarted its 55,00 b/d Crude 6 at its 165,000 b/d Paulsboro, New Jersey Refinery after it was shut for planned maintenance April 1, 2020. Previously the units had been scheduled to restart April 30 but were extended due to COVID-19. Additionally, the 55,000 b/d FCCU, 27,000 b/d Coker remain offline due to driving demand decreases due to COVID-19 pandemic concerns affecting operations. IIR will issue an update as soon as more information becomes available.

June 26, 2020  Pemex TRI continues to shutdown the 165kbd Combinada Primaria 2 (Crude 2) and 40kbd FCCU 2 units at its 315,000 b/d Miguel Hidalgo (Tula De Allende), Mexico refinery. The units, under planned repairs since Nov 2019 and after several restart postponements in the past, are now expected to be back into operations by mid-July 2020. Pemex informs that the 2020 Refinery T/A Program that includes the 25kbd HDS Unit 400-1 (Naphtha), 30kbd Reformer Unit 500-1 (CCR), 36,500 b/d Unit 600-1 (LPG Splitter), 25kbd HDD 5 (Diesel Hydrotreater 5), SRU 5 (Train 1) among other units continues valid; however, no precision has been decided in regards kick off date of the works since maintenance personnel continue awaiting HQ Office instructions. The turnaround previously reported to commence in July has been tentatively postponed until Sept 2020.The refinery is running its 150kbd Primaria 1 (Crude 1) at 110kbd while the remaining operational units are running at approximately 35 percent of normal capacity.

June 26, 2020  IIR has confirmed that Petrobras has rescheduled once again a 30-day major turnaround initially set for May, 2020 at its 189,000 b/d Refap, Brazil refinery. The major turnaround includes the 94,000 b/d Crude 2, 40,000 b/d RCCU, 31,450 b/d Cracked Naphtha HDS and associated units. The turnaround was postponed by 1-month; however due to Covid-19 pandemic the event has been further delayed, nevertheless a new date has not been set yet. The refinery is processing since March 30, 2020 at 60 percent due to Covid-19.

June 26, 2020  Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL), on June 20, 2020 (previously reported June 18, 2020), has successfully restarted the 10,000 b/d DCU 2 and resumed full throughput of 10,000 DCU 1, 36,660 b/d DHT 1, 3,200 b/d NHT 1, 4,600 b/d Reformer and 3,000 b/d Isomerization at its 54,000 b/d Bongaigaon Refinery, India. Previously, DCU 1 and DCU 2 were forced to shutdown due to Power failure on June 6, 2020, while DCU 1 was restarted on June 13, 2020 at 12 percent derate. As a result, the refinery was operating at 76 percent. Separately, the 27,000 b/d CDU 1 and 27,000 b/d CDU 2 continues to operate at approximately 82 percent each since June 21, 2020 due to low demand as a result of the Covid-19 Pandemic. As of now, the CDU 1 and CDU 2 are expected to resume full throughput gradually by June 30, 2020. Also, IOCL has rescheduled 30-day planned turnaround of its 27,000 b/d CDU 2. Previously, the turnaround was scheduled from July 4, 2020, is now expected to begin tentatively by January 8, 2022.

June 26, 2020  IIR has confirmed that Kuibyshev Refinery OJSC has rescheduled the completion of a planned plant wide maintenance turnaround of its 145,900 b/d Kuibyshev Refinery, Russia. The refinery has been shut down in Mid-April, 2020. Completion has previously been scheduled for late June, 2020, but has been rescheduled to Early July, 2020.

June 26, 2020  National Petroleum Refiners (NATREF) of South Africa (Pty) Limited, on June 20, 2020 has successfully restarted the 16,000 b/d Residual Crude Desulfurizer Unit (RCD), 30,200 b/d Diesel Hydrotreater, 22,600 b/d FCCU, 3,900 b/d HF Alkylation Unit, 3,600 b/d Isomerization Unit, 20,000 b/d Naphtha Hydrotreater, and 13,000 b/d Hydrocracker at its 108,500 b/d Natref Refinery, South Africa. Whereas the 14,500 b/d Reformer restarted on June 24, 2020 and the lone Crude Distillation Unit was successfully restarted on June 16, 2020. The refinery was forced to shut down on April 13, 2020 due to low demand as a result of the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Map of Global Refineries impacted by COVID-19/non-COVID -- OnGoing Offline Events

Global Refining Index

Industrial Info’s Global Refining Index (GRI) illustrates how much Refinery Capacity is offline versus Normal Operating Capacity.  Illustrating with an Operating % at a World Region - Market Region level how healthy Refineries are.. (see graphics below).

Refining Available Capacity

Global Regional Available Operational Capacity. COVID-19 Impact & non-COVID related outages

Map of Global Refineries impacted by COVID-19/non-COVID - Future(Delayed) Offline Events