IIR Weekly Global Refining Report ~ Prices rebounding..

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--IIR's weekly Global Refining Report gives you the latest inside intelligence on outages, derates, delays and more... & now there is an interactive, dynamic Global Refining Capacity Dashboard available to further power your refinery capacity research ..

and IIR’s Global Refining MarketIntel Platform -- the first of its kind in the industry -- is being gradually released beginning here in October.  Research - Data - Technology - Analytics all contributing to drive Actionable Intel providing Answers in today's uncertain crude fundamental world..

This Platform is part of a more comprehensive IIR Global MarketIntel Platform -- just ask [email protected] for further information..

Market Commentary: 

Prices rebound with OPEC indicating that the worst is over for the oil markets.  For as OilPrice reports, “Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said that OPEC is going to continue its oil market management and said the "worst is over." The comments came as OPEC unveiled its annual World Oil Outlook. 

Global inventories are currently 220 million barrels above the 5-year average, according to Bloomberg. Regardless, OPEC says it hopes the market will be "very healthy" heading into Q4 2020. 

Notably, the upside for oil could just be getting started, as combined Brent net spec exposure is near decade lows, indicating there could be plenty of room for a relatively smooth - and potentially drastic - move higher.”

  [..Brent pricing IIR Fundamental Analytics..]

However, there is a note of caution as OilPrice goes on to report, “The market is moving toward rebalancing, but this process will likely take many months more and certainly more than initially expected. 

A number of uncertainties put downward pressure on every oil demand forecast and on oil prices these days, including when an effective vaccine could be available to many people in many countries when economies recover, and whether consumer behavior has changed for good with work from home and virtual corporate events and conferences.”

There simply remains so much unknown in these markets.  Therefore, within this Global Refining Report, IIR hopes to shed some light on what is transpiring from a Refinery Operations perspective as the Global Refining Index (working with ADUs) illustrates what is happening to crude operationally available capacity and how refineries are de-rating and operating overall in these times.   The Global Refinery Maps depict the COVID-19 Impact as well as the non-COVID-19 outages.  Area Charts visualize COVID-19 Impact and non-COVID-19 capacity offline in Asia, Europe and North America.  

Petroleum Refining Highlights

Hurricane Delta makes landfall in SW Louisiana mere miles from where Hurricane Laura came onshore; Chan-Hom in APAC

As Hurricane Delta passes through the Gulf of Mexico, 272 manned platforms have been evacuated, totaling 1,693,232 BBL/d of crude oil capacity and 1,675.2 MMCFD of natural gas capacity that have been shut in.

Sempra has halted restart activities at its 15 MTPA LNG liquefaction plant following an extended outage caused by Hurricane Laura and widespread power outages in the Lake Charles area. Freeport LNG and Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass plants are expected to continue operations at reduced rates with limited personnel throughout Hurricane Delta. Kinder Morgan has declared a force majeure event along certain segments of its Natural Gas Pipeline of America pipeline system, affecting several points in Cameron and Vermilion parishes.

The ports of Houston and Galveston were closed to inbound traffic. Port conditions are Yankee, which essentially means they expect to get hit within 24 hours. Locks are closed on the intracoastal waterway. Essentially, the same status exists for Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Sabine, Port of Lake Charles and Port of New Orleans. The Coast Guard has eight helicopters, four fixed-wing aircraft, seven shallow-water response teams and 20 boats on standby as pre-planning and resource pre-staging continue.

Ethylene producers LyondellBasell, Westlake Petrochemicals and LACC, which were returning to service after completing repairs from Hurricane Laura, have halted restart activities and are in the process of shutting down. Revised restart timelines will be assessed through the weekend once the storm has passed.

Phillips 66 and Citgo Lake Charles, Louisiana, have paused the restart of their refineries, which were taken down as a result of Hurricane Laura. These refineries process a sum of 662,000 BBL/d of crude oil. In addition, Shell has placed its 260,000-BBL/d Convent, Louisiana, refinery into hot-oil circulation, and Delek curtailed rates at its 74,000-BBL/d refinery in Krotz Springs, Louisiana, in preparation for the hurricane.

Industrial Info's researchers continue to monitor the storm's progress and report on plant closures in the Disaster Impact Tracker tool as they are confirmed.

October 9, 2020  Total, Thursday, October 8, 2020, shut down the 40,000 b/d Crude ACU-2 and the 51,000 b/d Vacuum Distillation 1 prior to arrival of Hurricane Delta at its 190,000 b/d Port Arthur, Texas. IIR continues to monitor plant activities and will issue an update when new information becomes available.

October 9, 2020 IIR has confirmed that Pemex TRI 2021 Maintenance Turnaround Program is under assessment at its 270,000 b/d Cadereyta, Mexico refinery. The 2021 Plan continues pending to be fully approved by Pemex HQ office. It currently consists of a 45-Day Major maintenance turnaround on the 120,000 b/d Combinada 1 (Crude 1), 65,000 b/d FCCU 1, 42,500 b/d Gasoline Hydrotreater (ULSG Unit), 10,000 b/d MTBE 2, 6,000 b/d HF Alkylation 1 units, while 15-Days of Minor works are expected on the 25,000 b/d FCCU 2 and 120 T/d SRU 3. As it relates dates to completion, maintenance personnel estimates 2Q21 but it has to be defined. IIR continues to monitor the 2021 turnaround planning for a better understanding of a maintenance schedule

October 9, 2020  IIR has confirmed that Syzran Refinery has restarted the 6,300 b/d TK-3 (Visbreaker) at its 176,900 b/d Syzran Refinery, Russia. A planned maintenance turnaround kicked off in Early September, 2020, and was completed Early October, 2020. Restart of the 5,700 b/d Catalytic Cracker 43-102/1 has been rescheduled to Mid-October, 2020. The The 5,600 b/d Reformer LG-35-11/300 remains shutdown in reserve mode, and restart is currently expected End-October, 2020. Meanwhile, the 14,000 b/d TK-4 (Visbreaker), 8,700 b/d Catalytic Cracker 43-102/2 and associated units have been shut down for a planned 1-month maintenance turnaround in Early October, 2020. The 16,000 b/d Hydrotreater L-24/8C has been shut down for unplanned repairs on October 1, 2020, and restart is expected Mid-October, 2020

October 9, 2020  IIR has confirmed that Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat OAO has restarted the 83,500 b/d ABT-4 ELOU (Crude 1) and 50,100 b/d ABT-4 ELOU (Vacuum 1) units at its 208,500 b/d Salavat Refinery, Russia. A planned maintenance turnaround on the units was completed in Early-October, 2020. Meanwhile, The Refinery has rescheduled the Restart of the 41,600 b/d Hydrotreater (GO-4), 20,800 b/d Reformer L-35/11-1000 and 8,680 Isomerization (PGI) Units. Restart is now expected October 15, 2020. The 31,300 b/d Visbreaker (VB) will remain offline in reserve mode till End-December, 2020.

October 9, 2020  IIR has confirmed that Iplom SpA has started to perform a plant wide maintenance turnaround at its 34,000 b/d Iplom Refinery, Italy. The planned plant wide 27 days Maintenance Turnaround has kicked off on October 5, 2020, and Completion is scheduled for End-October, 2020.

October 9, 2020 Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) continues to operate its 660,000 b/d Jamnagar Domestic Tariff Area Refinery, India at approximately 89 percent due to Low Demand as a result of Covid-19 Pandemic. As of now, the 330,000 b/d CDU 1 and 330,000 b/d CDU 2 continue to remain derated by 11 percent each since September 16, 2020. The units are expected to resume normal operations by October 23, 2020 (previously reported October 1, 2020)

October 9, 2020  Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) has delayed the restart of 380,000 b/d CDU 2 at its 760,000 b/d Jamnagar SEZ Refinery, India due to delay in repairs. The Unit is under shutdown since September 22, 2020 due to leakage in Desalter Pipeline. Previously, the CDU 2 expected to restart on October 5, 2020, the unit is now expected to be back online on October 11, 2020. Additionally, the 380,000 b/d CDU 1 continues to operate at 88 percent since October 5, 2020 and expects to resume normal throughput tentatively by October 17, 2020. Previously, the CDU 1 was operational at 85 percent from September 25, 2020 to October 4, 2020.

Map of Global Refineries impacted by COVID-19/non-COVID -- OnGoing Offline Events

Global Refining Index

Industrial Info’s Global Refining Index (GRI) illustrates how much Refinery Capacity is offline versus Normal Operating Capacity.  Illustrating with an Operating % at a World Region - Market Region level how healthy Refineries are.. (see graphics below).

Global Regional Available Operational Capacity. COVID-19 Impact & non-COVID related outages

Map of Global Refineries impacted by COVID-19/non-COVID - Future(Delayed) Offline Events