Ignoring Unknown Unknowns: Don't Take the Bait

Ignoring the unknown unknowns until they become a clear and present danger leads to project overruns. Most projects can’t absorb these unaccounted-for issues without significant downstream ramifications. The inevitable result is a “choice” between two bad options: reduced scope and/or increased timeline. In plain terms, delivery is delayed, and quality is sacrificed. Here is your dinner entrée, ma'am—it’s late and burnt. It’s business poison. And yet, time and time again, organizations fail to account for unknown unknowns. Why?

The answer lies in a dangerous cycle of arrogance, unrealistic planning, and desperation. To break free, one must resist taking “the bait.”

Mouthwatering Morsel: “We’re Invincible”

The first trap is the belief that immutable empirical laws of research and development don’t apply to your organization. One of Steve Jobs’ most famous “inventions” was his Reality Distortion Field (RDF). He used charm, charisma, bravado, hyperbole, marketing, appeasement, and persistence to coerce others into achieving impossible goals within unrealistic timelines.

Entrepreneurs, by nature, are wired to go against the grain and are willing to see past warnings from all directions. These traits make them especially susceptible to RDF syndrome. RDF, though, is not a good tool except in desperate circumstances. Whether you call the resolve of these leaders courage or hubris, only a small percentage have the actual people skills required to successfully distort reality. Whether or not it works—and it rarely works—all it does is squeeze the maximum possible juice out of employees. It’s an employee-grinding Reality Ignoring Field.

Reality Ignoring is unknown-unknowns ignoring. One of the devious things about unknown unknowns is that they can lay dormant for much of a project. The comprehensive integration phase, which happens toward the end, stirs them up. The further along a project goes without discovering any unknown unknowns, the more it validates the ludicrous notion that your group is beyond reproach. And then, bam—reality. You’re on the hook.

Decadent Decoy: Bad Estimates

“Ahead of schedule.” Music to the ears of managers and leadership. Rewarded in the moment with a big pat on the back. But is it true? Or is it just telling management what they want to hear?

Underestimating timelines is common among the inexperienced and approval seekers. For the green, it’s ignorance—they don’t know to account for unknown unknowns. For approval seekers, it’s a strategic white lie—a way to secure approval by kicking the can down the road.

Underestimating leads to the under-allocation of resources. It causes projects to reach the end of their rope before they are truly complete. Underestimating forces under-delivery. Proper time estimation is difficult; it requires significant experience, careful tracking, and discipline. It’s not a quick, easy meal. Then again, neither is stumbling upon a succulent feast—made of plastic.

Luscious Lure: Building Hype

Projects are so time-consuming and resource-intensive that as they near completion, tensions run high. In this time of desperation, people grasp for “wins.” These wins often come in the form of presales.

Selling something that isn’t ready has a name—vaporware. It’s done intentionally to drum up excitement so that when the product is ready, there’s a hungry audience. Or to test the waters and gauge the market. Or because of financial greed and desperation.

It’s also a way to intentionally apply pressure to the development team—to create a hard deadline, a shipment date.

The end of a project is a pivotal time for the development team. They are the linchpins. At this stage, things will either coalesce entirely or fall apart. This is when the team needs the most focus, resources, and protection. It’s a time to hold the line. Instead, sales and marketing efforts often pull focus. Critical technical resources are diverted. Are you creating hype or falling prey to it?

At the end, everyone is hungry—starving even. Suddenly, you’re surrounded by beautiful calls—all these bright, shiny rewards begin to whiz by you. But you must resist. They’re red herrings. They’re camouflage-wearing, beer-drinking killers.

If you stay focused on the critical tasks, ignore the hunger, and keep swimming against the current just a little longer, you’ll reach the sheltered cove and the beautiful reef you’ve been seeking. “Just keep swimming, just keep swimming.” – Dory