IFTF Newsletter #3  |  AI at the Crossroads...Democracy's Enemy or Ally?

IFTF Newsletter #3 | AI at the Crossroads...Democracy's Enemy or Ally?

Will AI safeguard democracy, or push it to the brink? In this issue, we’re diving into our latest research at the intersection of AI, election integrity, and safety. From the rise of AI-generated disinformation to cutting-edge training for election officials?and strategies to bolster resilience, we’re examining how this powerful technology is already reshaping the U.S.?democratic landscape. Read on to uncover AI’s double-edged potential—both?as a tool to strengthen the foundations of our civic institutions but?fraught with consequences that we may not have considered yet.

Signals from the Future

The rapid advancement of AI technologies has led to growing concerns about election integrity with?the 2024 U.S. presidential race less than 34 days from now. The following signals highlight both escalating threats of AI-generated disinformation and efforts to combat its misuse in the political arena.

????? AI Image Generators Fuel Surge in Election Disinformation, Study Finds AI image generators are creating election disinformation at an alarming rate, according to a new study by the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH). Testing of popular tools like Midjourney and ChatGPT found they produced misleading images 41% of the time when given election-related prompts.?

???? FCC Bans AI-Generated Voices in Robocalls The Federal Communications Commission has outlawed robocalls using AI-generated voices . This unanimous decision aims to combat election misinformation and scams. Violators face fines up to $23,000 per call. The ruling follows recent incidents of AI voice impersonation in political campaigns.?

?? Roger Stone Cries "Deep Fake,"?Cashing In on the Liar's Dividend Roger Stone, a longtime Republican political operative and close associate of former President Donald Trump, claimed CNN-aired videos showing him advocating violence before the 2020 election are "deep fakes." Footage shows Stone saying “F*ck the voting, let's get right to the violence" and "Shoot to kill" regarding antifa.

?? AI-Generated Biden Video Targets New Hampshire Voters In January 2024, an AI-generated video of President Joe Biden circulated on social media, falsely claiming he was urging New Hampshire Democrats not to vote in the primary. The video, which mimicked Biden's voice and appearance, was quickly flagged and removed by platforms, but not before it reached thousands of viewers.

IFTF FEATURE A Government That Cares: Rethinking Our Rights and Duties at the 2023 Austin ConCon

Imagine a government that guarantees your right to childhood and leisure. Radical? Yes. Necessary? Absolutely, say attendees of the 2023 Austin Constitutional Convention. Facilitated by IFTF’s Jake Dunagan Dungan, diverse thinkers proposed ideas like a "Department of Joy" and rights to rest and play. These aren't pipe dreams — they aim to tackle violence, loneliness, and apathy. As cracks widen in our systems, these ideas challenge us to rethink government's purpose. Are we ready for a state that loves its citizens back?

Read Part 1 ?of Jake's report here from March 2024, and Part 2, from this month here .


IFTF INSIGHTS

Safe and Fair Elections Playbook: Identify, Prepare for, and Respond to AI Threats


Worried about democracy in the upcoming election? So was the office of Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes. Arizona officials along with others from battleground states turned to IFTF, the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU Law, and the Elections Group to simulate potential threats for the?2024 election. Together, we?conducted a first-of-its-kind?exercise to prepare officials for AI attacks on election offices and infrastructure. By simulating AI election chaos, they were able to foresee issues and plan responses.

Curious about our findings? Ready to act for safe and fair elections?

Check out our playbook, "How Election Officials Can Identify, Prepare for, and Respond to AI Threats." It details our Arizona project and outlines seven steps to tackle AI threats.


IFTF SPOTLIGHT

Is Your Mind Under Attack?

In the age of disinformation, our cognitive defenses are being bombarded daily. Our study, "Building a Healthy Cognitive Immune System," identifies the sophisticated "attack vectors" that exploit network dynamics and human cognitive biases. For this project, IFTF provided our partners?with custom foresight research to envision a socio-technical infrastructure protecting our networked society against malicious intrusions threatening the body politic.

Contact us to learn how IFTF's expertise in foresight and strategic advisory services can help your organization stay ahead of evolving challenges in the digital age.

Read Building a Healthy Cognitive Immune System: Defending Democracy in the Disinformation Age .

Watch the video about our study: Building a Healthy Cognitive Immunity System

Upcoming IFTF Foresight Essentials Trainings

IFTF Scenario Building Live-Online | 5 Sessions Oct 14 - Oct 29, 2024? 9am-12pm PDT | 12-3pm EDT | 6-9pm CEST Register here?? ?

Foresight Awareness for Philanthropy Live-Online | 90 minutes October 30, 2024 10:00-11:30am PST | 1:00-2:30pm EST | 19:00-20:30 CEST Register here?? ? ?

IFTF Foresight Essentials In-Person | 3 Days December 10-12, 2024 9am-5:30pm PST Register here??

ALL UPCOMING TRAININGS AND EVENTS

Upcoming IFTF Foresight Talks ?

Tech Agnosticism for a Better Future, with Greg Epstein,?Humanist Chaplain at Harvard & MIT Wednesday, October 30? |? 12:00pm PDT Register here??

Must-Have Foresight: How to Use Futures Thinking to Refine Strategy and Develop Leaders, with Dr. Debra France Thursday, November?21? |? 9:00am PDT Register here??


RESOURCES

Explore Tomorrow's Elections Today with UN's FutureCast Game


FutureCast is a game developed by UN Global Pulse that helps players explore multiple possible future scenarios related to an election as a way to generate robust, inclusive conversations about our political futures. The game allows users to craft scenarios across three time horizons, decide on stakeholder questions based on chosen topics, and use a "sensemaking" template to synthesize insights and plan actions. Why it matters: Elections can be moments of tense uncertainty for countries. Local organizations can use participatory foresight tools to gain the perspectives of their diverse stakeholders. Through the process, they can discover emerging risks and opportunities, and identify pathways that grant clarity and agency during a time of social ambiguity and change.

(We welcome recommendations for any recent futures thinking resources you'd like to share with readers!)

CLOSING THOUGHT

Civic?Futures

“Twentieth century political structures are drowning in a twenty-first century ocean of deregulated finance, autonomous technology, religious militancy and great-power rivalry.”
— Rana Dasgupta, author of After Nations, quoted in "Building a Healthy Cognitive Immune System"?

Navigate the Future with IFTF

IFTF offers a range of services that combine cutting-edge research, practical training, and collaborative partnerships to foster strategic foresight and build future-ready capabilities across various sectors and industries:

If your organization is seeking to build a robust future-ready strategy, IFTF has the expertise and tools to guide you through the complexities of a fast-changing world.

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