“If…..”

? “If you can keep your head whilst all about you are losing theirs, it’s possible that you have underestimated the severity of the situation, my son”

My dad’s favourite poem was “If” by Rudyard Kipling, but he always had a plaque in his kitchen, which stated this comical twist on life.

I kept it after he died, because it always made me smile. Since this lurgy crisis started, I have moved it to my own kitchen, as I wonder whether, despite toeing the line and self-isolating, I am not taking this seriously enough (a common complaint).

I wonder whether this lock-down is a) too severe; b) not severe enough; or c) about right? Once I have finished pondering that, I wonder did it start a) too soon; b) soon enough; or c) did ours/some governments dither? Now we are debating when and how it will end and what will come afterwards.

I wouldn’t criticise any type of response to this crisis, because of course, it’s without precedent (you can’t compare it economically with a similar flu from 1918). However, I don’t understand, for instance, why garden centres aren’t allowed to open, with a queuing system similar to those in place at supermarkets, if the proprietors and staff want to?

In the background, we can detect the (unelected) hand of Dominic Cummings, since the government’s messages have sounded an awful lot like the Brexit campaigns

Please don’t get me wrong. I have had asthma all my life and take steroids for it, daily. I haven’t had a “special” letter from Bozza, so maybe I am not in fact especially vulnerable. I was reported for SARs in 2003, having turned up at a Sydney hospital with a respiratory illness. Was it SARs? At the time, I just put it down to too many parties after I had arrived there for work. Who knows, nothing much came of it and then, like now, maybe we will never know whether I even had it.

Were people like Seb Coe and the footy authorities deluded by thinking that they can save the country by getting started again and carrying on with the Olympics and the Premiership? Both plans always seemed pie in the sky to me and so it turned out to be, at least for the Olympics.

What’s the outlook for business? Generally gloomy I would say. The forecasters are starting to irritate a lot of people. But try not to get irritated, remember what JK Galbraith said about them? â€œThere are two kinds of forecasters. Those who don’t know and those that don’t know that they don’t know!” 

More seriously, recessions are normally caused by a gradual slow down caused by a drop in demand. This one is different, as it will be caused by a deliberate shut down of the economy, matched by (yet more) fiscal easing. Bars, hotels and restaurants are amongst the hardest hit, but I still expect a VE day style party lasting until Xmas when they can reopen (whoop).

We should try and at least a brief period of celebrations, simply because if you thought austerity was bad last time, wait for this bad boy!

Now a debate seems to be starting, discussing whether things will ever be the same again or after a short delay will we quickly abandon daily exercise, walking places instead of driving, a mass reduction in commuting, a return to jigsaws and board games, rather than binge Box Set TV and 24/7 sports channels.

I cannot see myself getting back to normal for a long time. 

Two reasons:

a) I’ve cut myself a mohawk, so need to let it grow out before I head back to London; and

b) it’s unlikely that normality will resume before September and then during September, the schedule will look something like this:

• 92 Premier League Football games
• 75 Premiership & international rugby games
• Hundreds of cricket matches
• 85 rugby league games
• The Olympics
• Euro 2020
• The Eurovision Song Contest (!)
• Glastonbury & Isle of Wight, Download and Leeds & Reading festivals
• Approximately 3,578 gigs (that’s going to average out at 119 each day)
• Non-virtual beers with lots of friends, who want to catch up with me…

alright…I made the last one up, but you get the picture?

However you are coping with lock-down, try and stay safe, don’t go crazy and make use of tech to catch up with your friends and loved ones.