IEA's latest renewables report suggests a peak in global emissions is on its way

The International Energy Agency's new report finds that 2023 was a bumper year for renewables, with over 500 GW of new capacity installed globally.

With renewables deployment exploding – especially solar – global emissions could start coming down soon.

Our recent report on peaking emissions finds there is a 70% chance global greenhouse gas emissions could start falling in 2024 – if the growth in renewables continues to accelerate. But how do the IEA’s new forecasts compare to our analysis?

Globally, the IEA says we’re on track to grow renewables at least 2.5 times by 2030. In our peaking report's continued acceleration scenario (which sees a peak in global emissions in 2023), renewables grow 2.6 times by 2030 – very close to the IEA’s numbers.

At the country level, wind and solar capacity in the IEA’s forecasts is roughly in line with our projections. This new capacity could be sufficient to displace fossil fuel use and allow emissions to peak before 2025.

This doesn't mean a peak is guaranteed. Governments have the power to fast forward the energy transition – or apply the breaks. Plans to increase fossil fuel production out to 2030 remain the largest threat to peaking out there.

Even once we peak, there’s a way to go to align with 1.5oC by 2030. We need to treble renewables (we’re on the way, but an extra push is needed) and double efficiency (this is essential if renewables are to displace fossil fuels).

The other side of the equation is a fossil fuel phase out. We need to stop subsidising fossil fuels and cut fossil fuel use 40% by 2030. Coal power needs to go exit the global power system seven times faster, and gas ten times faster.

To guide action and see where investment is needed, governments need to understand what global goals mean at the national and regional level. Our new analysis of what a global trebling of renewables means at the regional level is coming soon - keep your eyes peeled ??