IEA forecasts over 4,000 GW of new solar by 2030

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is predicting over 4,000 GW of new solar will be added worldwide by the end of the decade.

The agency’s flagship report, “Renewables 2024,” says the world is set to add more than 5,500 GW of new renewables capacity between 2024 and 2030, to reach a cumulative capacity of almost 11,000 GW.?

The prediction indicates solar will account for 80% of renewables growth over the 6-year period. Utility-scale solar will account for the majority of the solar expansion, but distributed applications, encompassing residential, commercial, industrial and off-grid projects, are expected to make up almost 40% of new solar.

“Adoption accelerates due to declining costs, shorter permitting timelines and widespread social acceptance,” the report says. “Cost competitiveness and policy support also stimulate the growth of distributed applications among residential and commercial consumers as more households and companies seek to reduce their electricity bills.”

The report adds global renewable capacity additions will continue to increase every year, reaching almost 940 GW annually by 2030.

China is expected to remain the dominant player in the global market, forecast to account for 60% of the expansion in global renewables capacity by 2030. The European Union and the United States are both forecast to double their pace of renewable capacity growth between 2024 and 2030, with the EU’s ambition for 600 GW of solar by the end of the decade “within reach,” according to the report.

India is seeing the fastest rate of renewables growth among large economies, the IEA says, which it attributes to the country’s rapid expansion of auctions, the introduction of a new support scheme for rooftop solar and stronger financial indicators.

The IEA adds that largely untapped renewables potential in emerging and developing economies can be realized if policies improve, explaining that high financing costs are continuing to reduce the economic attractiveness of renewables in these markets. Weak grid infrastructure, developing economies and securely integrating renewable energy sources are listed as other key challenges

“Measures to reduce risks, including by creating stable policy environments with clear long-term targets, can help unlock additional capacity,” the report says. “In countries with fossil fuel overcapacity with long-term contracts, policymakers could consider renegotiating inflexible power and fuel contracts and accelerating the phasedown of fossil fuel plants.”

Although the total growth is not fully in line with the goal set at COP28 to triple the world’s renewable capacity this decade, instead representing 2.7 times growth, IEA says its analysis indicates that fully meeting the tripling target is possible if governments take near-term opportunities for action.

It is calling upon countries to announce enhanced ambitions in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), due in 2025. Only 14 countries had explicit renewable capacity targets in the NDCs designed before COP28, but according to the report, nearly 70 countries that collectively account for 80% of global renewable power capacity are poised to reach or surpass their current renewable ambitions for 2030.

“This report shows that the growth of renewables, especially solar, will transform electricity systems across the globe this decade,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Renewables are moving faster than national governments can set targets for. This is mainly driven not just by efforts to lower emissions or boost energy security – it’s increasingly because renewables today offer the cheapest option to add new power plants in almost all countries around the world.”