IEA: Combined US and European BEV market to outstrip China by 2030

The East Asian heavyweight’s global market dominance set to erode

Chinese sales accounted for 61pc of the world’s BEVs sold in 2022, according to data from the IEA. But, under its central ‘Steps’ scenario, that lead will have been whittled down to the extent that, by 2030, adding US and European sales together will outstrip China’s demand.

The IEA’s 2022 figures have Chinese BEV sales at 4.4mn, out of a global total of 7.3mn. Europe’s 1.6mn BEVs sold accounts for another 22pc of worldwide appetite, while the US is half of Europe at 0.8mn and 11pc, respectively.

But the IEA forecasts this will change rapidly even as demand for BEVs accelerates rapidly throughout the world. Total sales are expected to grow to 16mn in 2025 and then almost double again to 31mn by the end of the decade (see Fig.1).

Chinese sales will remain comfortably in the lead, rising to 7.9mn in 2025 and to 13mn in 2030 (see Fig.2). But accelerated growth rates elsewhere will alter the global demand balance.

Europe’s share of world BEV demand will remain remarkably stable, with forecast growth to 3.3mn in 2025 and 7mn in 2030 keeping it at 21pc and then 23pc of the global mix (see Fig.3). The US will, though, in the IEA’s projections, be hot on Europe’s tail as the world’s second-largest regional market by the end of the decade. Its projected 2025 demand of 2.9mn will boost its share of global appetite to 18pc, and in 2030 it will be just below Europe with 6.8mn BEVS sold for a 22pc market share.

And this will put the combined European and US slices of the BEV pie at 45pc, higher than China’s 42pc. India will make up another 3pc, compared to just 1pc in 2022, while BEV sales in the rest of the world will see its percentage point share double over eight years from 5pc in 2022 to 10pc by the decade’s end.