IE International Relations Society Newsletter - End of Year Edition
IE International Relations Society
IE-based society for all those interested in global affairs discussions, debates, and activities.
As we wrap up the final week of 2024, we invite you to take a moment to reflect on the events that have shaped the world over the past year. This week’s edition of our newsletter includes the usual main highlights of global developments of the past week, but we also want to encourage you to look back on significant moments and shifts in international relations that have defined this year. To help guide this reflection, we’ve attached a special article from the Council on Foreign Relations, outlining ten of the key world events of 2024.
Looking ahead, 2025 is fast approaching, and with it, new challenges and opportunities in global affairs. As we prepare for the year to come, we’ve compiled a selection of resources at the end of this newsletter to help you stay informed on the trends, predictions, and key issues to watch in international relations. These resources include both simple and broad overviews and in-depth analyses, ensuring you’re ready for whatever lies ahead.
This edition also marks the conclusion of the first year of the IE International Relations Society Newsletter. It has been a fantastic journey, and we are grateful for your engagement throughout the year. We look forward to continuing this journey with you in 2025, and to further improving and evolving the newsletter as we go. Thank you for being part of this exciting endeavor, and we can’t wait to bring you even more insightful content in the new year.
Wishing you a reflective end to 2024 and a?thought-provoking start to 2025!
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Big Events of the Past Week:
Han Duck-soo Impeached and South Korea Mourning Over Plane Crash
South Korea’s parliament has impeached acting President Han Duck-soo, accusing him of obstructing judicial appointments critical to impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial. Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok has assumed the acting presidency as the Constitutional Court deliberates on whether to uphold Han’s removal. The country remains mired in political uncertainty, sparked by Yoon’s failed martial law decree, which triggered weeks of unrest and a currency crisis. Adding to the turmoil, South Korean investigators have requested an arrest warrant for Yoon, citing allegations of rebellion and abuse of power during the martial law declaration. Prosecutors allege Yoon ordered military intervention to disrupt a parliamentary vote, escalating tensions as the Constitutional Court reviews his impeachment. In the midst of this crisis, on Sunday, a?Jeju Air flight from Bangkok crashed at Muan International Airport in South Korea, killing 179 in the country's deadliest air disaster. South Korea's new acting President?Choi Sang-mok has ordered an emergency safety probe of the country's entire airline operation system as the country enters a 7-day national mourning period.
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight Crash in Kazakhstan Kills 38, Investigation Underway
On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243, an Embraer 190 carrying 67 people, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 passengers and crew. The flight had departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, en route to Grozny, Russia, and encountered thick fog as it approached. Survivors reported hearing explosions, and the plane's fuselage appeared damaged by shrapnel, likely from Russian air defense missiles after the aircraft entered an area where Russian forces were repelling Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian officials confirmed their air defense systems were active near Grozny but did not admit responsibility. Vladimir Putin apologized but did not acknowledge Russia's role. Azerbaijan believes the plane was subjected to electronic interference and missile fire, which led it to divert across the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan called for an international investigation, rejecting Russia’s proposal to involve its aviation body. Kazakhstan, in collaboration with Azerbaijan and Russia, decided to send the flight recorders to Brazil for an independent investigation. The investigation continues, with the black boxes being sent to Brazil for analysis.
HTS Leader Says It Could Be 4 Years Before Next Elections in Syria
Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, has stated that it could take up to four years to hold elections in the war-torn country. In an interview with Saudi TV, he explained that drafting a new constitution might take up to three years, with a comprehensive population census needed to ensure the legitimacy of the elections. Al-Sharaa, leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, emphasized that significant changes in the country’s governance and public services could be expected within the next year. He also announced that HTS would dissolve at an upcoming national dialogue summit aimed at bringing together Syria’s different factions and uniting the country after years of civil war. Al-Sharaa reassured Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious groups that their rights would be protected, and expressed his hope for strengthened relations with Russia, a key ally during the conflict, while also hoping that the U.S. would lift sanctions imposed on Syria.
NATO to Boost Defence in the Baltic Sea After Undersea?Cables Damaged
Finland recently seized the Eagle S, a ship suspected of damaging the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia, part of a series of disruptions in the Baltic Sea since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO has pledged to increase its military presence in the region, with Finland and Estonia requesting additional support. The Eagle S, linked to Russia's shadow fleet, is under investigation for possible criminal activity. NATO allies, including Sweden, are coordinating efforts to protect key infrastructure. The Estlink 2 outage has raised power prices in the Baltic, and authorities continue investigating other incidents involving damaged cables and pipelines, intensifying regional security concerns. In response to these developments, Sweden's opposition Social Democrat party has urged the government to invoke NATO's Article 4 to convene a special meeting addressing security concerns. Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stated the government would consider all options.
Kavelashvili Becomes Georgian President?While the Country Protests
Mikheil Kavelashvili, a former soccer player backed by the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party, was sworn in as Georgia's new president on December 22, 2024, sparking widespread protests in Tbilisi. Elected by a parliamentary electoral college after direct presidential elections were abolished in 2017, Kavelashvili promised to unite the country despite opposition claims that the election was rigged with Russian assistance. The protests, which erupted after the government postponed EU membership talks, have grown in size, with demonstrators accusing the ruling party of becoming more authoritarian and pro-Russian. Outgoing President Salomé Zourabichvili, who advocates for EU integration, joined the protests, calling Kavelashvili's election a "parody" and refusing to step down. Zourabichvili and opposition groups argue that the October elections were manipulated, with the OSCE supporting this claim. Despite the protests, Kavelashvili and his supporters are determined to push forward with a pro-Russian agenda while distancing themselves from the West.
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Poland to Take Over EU Presidency Amid?Row with Hungary
Poland will take over the EU presidency from Hungary on January 1, 2025, focusing on security and defense, contrasting with the controversial leadership of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Orban’s presidency was marked by diplomatic tensions, including uncoordinated visits to Moscow, Kyiv, and Beijing. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk aims to strengthen Poland's role in EU security, especially regarding Ukraine and NATO, and lead defense initiatives like the "East Shield." However, domestic issues, including protests over Ukrainian grain imports and upcoming elections, may limit Poland’s EU actions. Additionally, Poland is in a diplomatic dispute with Hungary after Hungary granted asylum to Marcin Romanowski, a Polish opposition politician wanted for corruption. Poland plans to take Hungary to the European Court of Justice for not honoring a European arrest warrant. This move highlights the growing tensions between Poland and Hungary, as Tusk's government seeks accountability for corruption within the former administration.
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The Ten Most Significant World Events in 2024, according to the Council on Foreign Relations
In 2024, the world faced escalating geopolitical tensions, ongoing conflicts, and remarkable advances in technology. The year saw the continuation of Russia's war in Ukraine, worsening instability in Sudan, and rising concerns about China’s economic strategies. Space exploration thrived, with missions from Japan, China, and NASA making significant strides, though geopolitical competition in space intensified. The artificial intelligence revolution accelerated, raising concerns about global inequalities and the need for regulation. Meanwhile, the Middle East experienced further turmoil, with Israel's conflict with Hamas and escalating hostilities with Iran. The rise of a coalition of autocracies—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—highlighted shifting global alliances. Amid these challenges, Donald Trump's surprising victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election marked a significant political shift, setting the stage for a dramatic change in U.S. foreign policy.
Read the full CFR article here:
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What to watch and expect in 2025
As we approach the end of 2024, it's the perfect time to look ahead and start thinking about the key developments that will shape international relations and global affairs in 2025. From geopolitical shifts to economic trends, 2025 promises to be another year of significant change and challenge. In this section, we've gathered insights from leading think tanks and publications to give you a glimpse into the issues, events, and opportunities that will define the coming year. Whether it's the future of global trade, the evolving dynamics in conflict zones, or the impact of emerging technologies, we believe these resources will help you stay informed and prepared for what lies ahead:
What Chatham House’s experts will be keeping their eyes on in the year ahead
"The World Ahead 2025" by The Economist
Ten issues that will shape the international agenda in 2025, according to the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
Five Geopolitical Questions for 2025, World Economic Forum
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