Idle musings about the normal, new, old or otherwise

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future” 

Our first spring without baseball seems like a good time to bring back Yogi Berra’s memorable bon mot about forecasting. SARS-CoV-19 has impacted a slew of our behaviors and only time will tell which new ones remain, or return to the mean of 2019 once the economy reopens at different paces and places across our nation.

Below are some thoughts and questions about healthcare, communications, trust and leadership issues in these interesting times that would be fun to discuss and weigh how they might affect society at large and us personally, our brands and their audiences/constituents.

1. We are witnessing important confrontations about rights and obligations at global, federal, state and individual levels

Whether legitimate or simply scapegoating, the administration’s complaints about the handling of the SARS-CoV-19 outbreak by the World Health Organization and China raise the need for transparency and early action in matters of healthcare given the speed of the spread and how interconnected the globe is. Should the scope and funding of the WHO be revisited now that we can finally begin to measure the global impact of healthcare on individual and economic wellbeing? 

Although its effectiveness is debatable, the United Nations does have some peace-keeping abilities which are occasionally deployed. Should the WHO have something similar? Funding is another issue that needs revisiting. Withholding it at this moment seems harsh and immense gratitude is definitely due to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for the head-spinning fact that it made the second largest donation to WHO 2018 funding, after the USA! Call it a watchdog, an enforcer or simply the WHO with enhanced independence, funding and powers, the world needs a DEW system for global health security to serve as a bellwether before the next outbreak. Kind of like the warning signs in NY subways after 9/ll: “if you see something, say something!”

Debate and struggles about the powers of the federal vs. state governments go back to the founding fathers, who wanted to make sure we never had another king. They reappear in times of grave national emergencies - the Great Depression under FDR, 9/11 under George W. Bush and the 2008 housing crisis during Obama’s presidency. 

SARS-CoV-19, the current administrations most serious national emergency to date, pits a virus that ignores James Madison’s argument in Federalist 10 that national leaders can check the spread of the "conflagration through the other states” against the over the top belief in the personal power of the Chief Executive who cannot deal the decentralized nature of our healthcare system that is seemingly overseen by insurance providers, not the government. 

I admit to being a bit facetious here, but this situation has created a very complicated management and messaging situation for the presidency where control is admittedly very difficult to achieve. It has also led to the inconsistent messaging about the pandemic’s seriousness at its onset, the delayed response and the initial feuding with governors in Washington, New York and California which ended with delegating response management to governors nationwide. 

All of these may have contributed to Americans being less trusting of the Federal Government, be it the President, White House or Congress, than in State and City governments “to do the right thing to best handle the COVID-19 outbreak” per The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States:Entity / % of trust A lot Some Not too much Not at all

Entity / % of trust      A lot     Some   Not too much  Not at all
 

State government          34        47        14             6

City government           30        52        14             4

Donald Trump              26        25        17            32

The White House           23        36        22            18

Congress                  13        44        31            13

ll the huge challenge to give an impression of the calm and control the majority seems to want come into conflict with the President’s instincts to project strength through confrontation as the elections draw nearer? Putting himself front and center in the recent daily briefings may have temporarily backfired, but we can expect more efforts to dominate the national discourse by grasping for the media limelight. Notwithstanding his media mastery, the virus is probably the one who really holds the cards in this election and its rise or fall with reopening may determine the outcome.

At the individual level, we have seen protests by “back to workers” invoking Patrick Henry’s soaring and inflammatory oratory at almost exactly this same moment just over 245 years ago at the Second Virginia Convention on March 23, 1775. As Jack Holmes, political editor for Esquire wrote about them on April 20: ‘To be clear, the message here is not "give me liberty or give me death." It's "give me liberty and also some death," even if these folks are not the people who may ultimately suffer and die because of what often boils down to selfishness. Even by engaging in these protests, they put themselves and innocent others in greater danger. If they succeed in pressuring local authorities to lift social-distancing measures too early, the damage will be many times worse. And make no mistake: these folks are often not gig or hourly workers desperate to get back to work. Sometimes, they cite a desire to go to a hair salon as their justification for undermining the national response to a pandemic. ‘Give me convenience or give me death! Well, also death.’

While their individual right to free speech, assembly and bear arms are laid out in the First and Second Amendments of the Constitution, their exercise of said rights could actually put people in danger as social distancing went the way of the dodo in those demonstrations. It seems incredible that they can ignore how SARS-CoV-19 has struck people communing with various degrees of religiosity, from Florida beaches and New Orleans Mardi Gras celebrations to churches on opposite coasts and in the middle, like California, Kansas and New Jersey. 

Unless we are covertly trying to cull certain members of the population of our country that are most affected by the virus or to create herd immunity, it seems inarguable that the greater good would benefit from effective isolation.

2. We will continue to judge our fellow Americans by our differences even though we are more in agreement than we realize.

Hard as it may seem to believe, “93% of Americans do not think the economy should reopen immediately — even in states that are currently moving in that direction”. This is sourced from a survey of almost 23,000 individuals across all 50 states and the District of Columbia between April 17 and April 26, 2020, and led by researchers from Harvard Kennedy School, Northeastern, and Rutgers Universities. 

Additionally, 74% strongly approve of asking people to stay at home and avoid gathering in groups and an additional 20% somewhat approve of this measure. 

In fact, Five Thirty Eight posted an article on their website saying many Americans in red states ignored politics and acted sooner than their governors did. Data from Cuebiq - a private company tracking the movement of people via GPS-enabled mobile devices across the U.S. - showed that 23% of people in Tennessee, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and Kentucky started staying home during the first week of March. In fact, about 90% of the total change between early March and mid-April had occurred in the week before the stay-at-home orders were passed in each state. 

Additionally, research conducted by YouGov between April 6-7 showed “even among Americans who believe the threat of coronavirus has been exaggerated, roughly half now report they are avoiding crowded public places (52%), staying at home except for essential activities (49%), washing their hands more frequently (55%) and staying six feet away from other people in public places (56%)”. 

3. Sadly, our differences are split among familiar demographic and partisan lines. 

Arguments about white privilege being overt or unconscious will surface when we look at wearing face masks outside the home, with 51% of Whites reporting following recommendations very closely, along with 62% of Hispanics, 64% of African Americans, and 68% of Asian Americans. 

Age also plays a role in conformity with 50% of 18-24 year olds wearing a face mask vs. 60% of those aged 65 or higher. While predictable, differences along party lines didn’t seem huge: 51% of Republicans, compared to 64% for Democrats, reported wearing face masks outside the home. (The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States)

4. You are what you eat is even truer when it comes to the media you consume.

Trust in social media companies and the news media is not particularly high at the moment and the same study confirms this. Fortunately, expertise and science are doing well, for the moment. When asked “how much do you trust the following people and organizations to do the best right thing to best handle the current Covid-19 outbreak”, the fourth estate significantly trails the experts (The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States):

Entity / % of trust          A lot     Some   Not too much  Not at all

Hospitals and doctors         72        24          3            1

Scientists and researchers    58        35          5            2

The news media                14        41         27           17

Social media companies         9        32         37           22

Television ranks at the top as a source of SARS-CoV-19 information as "older (65+) Americans were more likely to rely on local television (70%), network television (60%), cable television (48%), as compared to younger (18-24 year olds) Americans (41%, 39%, 32%, respectively).” 

When it came to their cable news sources for news or information related to the SARS-CoV-19 outbreak in the last 24 hours, respondents really are split along party lines:

Information Source / % trust    All  Republicans Democrats Independents

CNN                             37       27         51         34

Fox News                        37       54         27         33

MSNBC                           19       12         27         18

Until recently, our local Fox News channel in Miami reported daily tallies of infections and deaths for Florida, also Miami-Dade and Broward, the state’s most populated counties. Ordinarily, would be easy to point a finger at the station and speculate on reasons why they ended the body count. After all, Florida is a swing state. However the real culprit may have been revealed in the April 29 headline of the Tampa Bay Times that screamed “Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.” The real shocker came in the body of the article which reported “Dr. Stephen Nelson, the chairman of the state Medical Examiners Commission and also the medical examiner for Polk, Highlands and Hardee counties — said the change in policy came after the state health department intervened. The medical examiners’ list… provides demographic information, probable cause of death and case summaries with information about each person’s medical and travel history.” State officials told him they plan to remove causes of death and case descriptions. The precedent of meddling with public records is terrifying.

Divisive campaigns designed to influence our perceptions and expectations on who will bring us a safer, better future in November’s election are sure to assault the air, screens and pages around us over the next six months. There is also little doubt that domestic and foreign interests will create interference in the elections and we know alternative facts are the new reality. 

The combination of all this negativity should result in even more distrust of the media. Will any new service emerge to either distract us from it all or help is separate fact from fiction? What kind of messaging can rebuild trust after November?

5. We are at a crossing between Darwin and Dickens

Obliquely referencing natural selection and the survival of the fittest to justify their stances, cash strapped and undeniably suffering business owners who are trying to recover some income along with pandering politicians desperate to gain a degree of popularity with some constituents are calculatedly making Darwinian - or Spencerian - statements about the cost of reopening the economy measured by the currency of expendable human lives. 

Darwin’s contemporary, Dickens is much more associated with narratives protesting the social conditions of his time and a “vision that human prosperity cannot be matched with human despair”. While we’re not exactly in the throes of the Industrial Revolution, we are still living through two confronting ideologies: 

• a completely free, unfettered market which will inexorably lead to exploitation of the weak and which is currently overshadowing the arguments for a
• (B) regulated one, which proponents of the former fervently believe can run the risk of strangling innovation. 

Consequently, our fixation with just in time manufacturing, low inventory management and other practices learned from trying to compete with Japan Inc in the 80’s together with sucking out greater workforce productivity will continue as demand to meet quarterly market expectations resumes with the recovery of the stock market.

But will the concerns with our lack of preparedness and insufficient stockpiles of protective equipment for hospital workers change considerations about efficiency when it comes to health care? Will hospitals increase their stock of PPE supplies moving forward? Or will we discard our learning with a fashionable toss of the invisible hand of the market?

6. Healthcare will be on everyone’s mind. Ignoring or threatening it will be dangerous.

A mere week after the publication of the The COVID-19 Consortium for Understanding the Public’s Policy Preferences Across States study and 2 weeks after the close of data collection, we have over a million SARS-CoV-2 infected Americans and the number is growing. Talk about repealing the ACT is rearing its ugly head again. 

Unsurprisingly, being able to receive health care is a greater concern for AA and Hispanics at this time. But what is surprising is that the concern rises at both extremes of the Education and Income spectra while a higher percentage of younger Americans are very concerned when compared to those of 65+. Medicare, of course, weighs heavily on this situation, but could Medicare for all finally become a concept and become more widely supported over time? It is conceivable a large part of the 33 million unemployed might suddenly be in favor if it thanks to the virus.

7. Commercial messaging has taken a beating for making similar emotional appeals and executions, but some fascinating research has been done on the effectiveness of moral messages on public health behavioral intentions during the pandemic 

 To be fair to advertisers and their agencies, they probably all wrote the same comms objective in the creative brief: maintain top of mind awareness and generating empathy through expressions of support. The work reflects the brief.

In sharp contrast, researchers from the Department of Psychology at the University of Kent and at Yale University conducted a test to measure the effects of three types of moral messages vs a non-moral control on “participants’ self-reported intentions to wash hands, avoid social gatherings, self-isolate, and share health messages, as well as their beliefs about others’ intentions, impressions of the messenger’s morality and trustworthiness, and beliefs about personal control and responsibility for preventing the spread of disease.” In other words, they were effectively curious about generating intent to actually do something (report downloadable at https://psyarxiv.com/9yqs8) 

Why use moral messages? The researchers wrote: “With the COVID-19 pandemic threatening millions of lives, changing our behaviors to prevent the spread of the disease is a moral imperative.” Every message - including the control - started with “We all need to do this, however difficult.” The moral ones added an RTB using one of the following moral theories that were thought to be persuasive: 

1. Utilitarian - focused on the expected consequences of failing to slow the spread of the pandemic 
2. Deontological - focused on notions of the duties, obligations, and responsibilities we have to our families and communities and 
3. Virtue based - considering what an ideal person would do during this crisis. 

The copy isn’t particularly scintillating, but serves its intended purpose:

Condition                           Message

Non-moral control    We all need to do this, however difficult. 

Deontological        We all need to do this, however difficult, because it
                     is the right thing to do: it is our duty and 
                     responsibility to protect our families, friends, and 
                     fellow citizens. 
                     IT’S YOUR DUTY. 

Virtue based         We all need to do this, however difficult, because 
                     it’s what a good person would do. Think about people
                     you admire morally – what would they do? 
                     BE A GOOD PERSON. 

Utilitarian          We all need to do this, however difficult, because 
                     these sacrifices are nothing compared to the much 
                     worse consequences for everyone if we carry on as 
                     usual. 
                     THINK OF THE CONSEQUENCES. 

The results are being peer-reviewed and must be taken with caution. In the authors’ own words: “Overall, our preliminary results suggest that public health messaging focused on duties and responsibilities toward family, friends and fellow citizens is a promising approach for future studies of interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the US.”

“Even though majority of participants predicted the utilitarian message would be most effective, there was no evidence the utilitarian message was effective in changing intentions or beliefs. Ongoing work is investigating the reproducibility and generalizability of our findings across different populations, what aspects of deontological messages may drive their persuasive effects, and how such messages can be most effectively delivered across global populations.” 

Factors besides the moral theory could have affected the result - for example the declaration of war on the virus could stir feelings of patriotism and duty. Could the deeply rooted ethics of America’s Protestant foundations have had an outsize influence. Could one argue that the 3 moral messages actually had a moral call to action while the control was passive? 

Whatever the final outcome is, the study is a good step in terms of better understanding potential public service messages that can help nudge desired behaviors in future.

8. Having better choices in communications technology doesn’t mean we are all connected or communicating better.

In spite of all the ways we can now hang out with each other over video, loneliness has risen during the pandemic. Ironically, it is notably higher among Millennials, the cohort one generally associates with being digitally native and never looking up from their tech. Of course, many more of them are living alone, but it goes to show that we are inherently social beings and that human touching beats swiping.

Perhaps surprisingly, the pandemic is showing that our social skills need a Masterclass as YouGov data shows almost one-quarter (24%) of Americans are finding it difficult to maintain social connections during it. Among those who say it’s been difficult to maintain social connections, 35% say one of the reasons why is because they feel awkward talking over video or on the phone. A similar number (34%) say it’s because their usual social activities don’t have a virtual equivalent, while 32% feel awkward reaching out to friends or family to schedule a virtual chat.

On the positive side, our creativity is flourishing as people use their tech to create memes and entertainment whose inherent silliness is both endearing and fascinating. For starters, @RexChapman tweeted a hilarious video on March 22 showing himself as a man riding a horse to the soundtrack of America’s “Horse with No Name”, with his girlfriend's hair acting as the tail. With over 10 million views, you can enjoy it here: https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1241753020435697671?s=20

In the absence of fresh sport outside of football in Belarus this spring, Andrew Cotter, “a Scottish sports broadcaster working primarily for the BBC covering mainly golf and rugby union, but also tennis, athletics, dogs and The Boat Race, was bored out of his gourd. He filmed his two dogs, then brilliantly changed the context with narration in his usual argot. Enjoy it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f2BZNowCXws

Meaner memes include the Rolling Stones in close proximity with masks cleverly photoshopped onto Jagger, Watts and Wood while Keith Richards is barefaced. In the same vein, VanGogh’s self portrait is seen dangling from his ear. 

9. Zoom brings a whole new level of attention and authenticity to conference calls.

Participants quickly learn it is unwise to enact old behaviors like eating or making rude faces and gestures at other participants’ comments as the camera reveals what you really think vs the limited clues the speakerphone mic and mute button used to hide. The “accidents” that happen on these WFH meetings are changing our perceptions of others as their kids, pets and other spontaneous occurrences happen and heighten their humanity. 

A good friend who has no kids at home and is also a manager has been “Zooming” with her reports. She suddenly understood that many of them had to deal with kids, life partners and household at a whole different level than when everyone was at the office. This helped her realize she couldn’t be as demanding of her peeps as before with regards to timelines and such. Will this newfound tolerance and consideration for others’ circumstances face diminishing returns or stay where it’s at when everyone is back in the office?

10. We have reached a point where fear and anger are very much a part of the zeitgeist and far too many of us are doing stupid things.

Generally, we want to believe that we desire to be good people, ready to help the less fortunate and generally act in a way that promotes the commonweal. We also believe in free will and our rights to choose between different courses of action. It is not the fact of being locked down the frustrates us, but the imposition to do so. 

Unfortunately, our suspicions about others have been raised to DEFCON 1 levels of wariness: Maximum readiness. Immediate response. I confess that I get irritated by the huge number of people not wearing a mask in my neighborhood when they go outside for exercise. I go out of my way to avoid them. However some are responding with sheer vigilantism. Recent news reports about front line workers being threatened and even killed for trying to do their jobs and enforce social distancing guidelines in public places confirm this. A free and just society can’t allow this to happen. Justice can’t vary according to circumstances.

About one-quarter (24%) of Americans say that they believe their overall mental health has worsened during the coronavirus outbreak. Data from a separate YouGov poll of more than 14,000 Americans finds that one in 10 Americans has sought mental health counseling at some point during the pandemic. Those who are between 25 and 34 years old are especially likely (18%) to have sought mental health counseling during this time. 

Once again we need to recognize that serious healthcare issues await us. PTSD is no longer a result of physical violence, it is definitely mental and needs attention.

11. Context will undoubtedly prove to be king when it comes to feelings about re-opening because social distancing experiences have varied greatly. 

Lockdown measures and enforcement have varied wildly from strict to non-existent by state, county and city, so people’s perceptions of the pandemic’s severity will vary greatly in accordance with where they’ve spent the last 6 or so weeks. Over this period, more than 33 million of us have filed for unemployment. Some have been lucky enough to work from home. And though the experience may encourage some to continue to do so, I’m willing to bet that tons of people want to get back to the familiar routines they once railed against. 

But don’t expect New Yorkers who have been wakened by the sirens or people who have said farewell to family members over FaceTime to be as eager to get back to work as the automatic rifle and MAGA hat toting Michiganders in front of Lansing’s state Capitol. Organizers reportedly told them to stay in their cars, so of course, they didn’t. Students of Edward Bernays and his Torches of Freedom march could ask if their protest was truly an appeal for personal liberty or a sort of focus group organized as a simulacrum for a Trump rally in the now less distant future? 

After all, those are the arenas in which he’s most comfortable. Reminiscent of an invincible gladiator, that’s where he slays his opponents - and the media - and revels under the glorious adulation of the crowd while protected from the questions of reporters. 

Let’s not forget that those protests were actually organized by conservative groups for political reasons, and in some cases they impeded access to hospitals where fellow citizens were being treated.

12. Our delight in nature’s recovery of less trafficked spaces and our infatuation with frontline workers in healthcare, agriculture and meatpacking will wane and sink back to being a “nice-to-have” as our behaviors steadily revert to the mean.

Don’t get me wrong, they deserve all the love we’re giving them, and much, much more, which is why these will be the hardest truths for people to swallow! 

Many of us have shared memes of animals in places that actually do have a precedent for them, not us. But commuting will return, even if less than before and certainly not all at once. Which means we will chase the beasts of the field away again and learn nothing of what they or the earth have taught us.

We have also displayed enthusiastic manifestations of support - if you live in Manhattan that is - by cheering, pan-smashing and clapping for our healthcare workers. Unfortunately, the swelling of the chest, quickening of the heart and moistness in our eyes for our front-liners will fade eventually. 

If you don’t believe me, just consider the outsize effort that Jon Stewart - the wit who brought us the often savage wisdom of “The Daily Show” - has had to exert on Congress to maintain the benefits of 9/11 first responders as their memory has faded to once-yearly remembrances.

Finally, many animal shelters have emptied as people have turned to rescue pets for company and support. Caring for them while sheltering at home is easy. Will they be as dedicated to feeding, walking and looking out for them when finally back to work? Let’s hope our better nature kicks in and people do right by them.

So what talking points can we take for our brands, audiences and ourselves?

1. Detailing, delimiting and deciding the boundaries of individual and collective rights have surely been argued about since we were cave-dwellers as idealists and opportunists have sought to exert or expand them for communal or personal purposes. At its basest, its a struggle for power between the strong leveraging their might and the weak, who find their own way to counterbalance it. Be it David against Goliath or magnates against unions, it will never cease. Once you have established a clear position on what you want to stand for, the biggest challenge becomes maintaining authenticity and consistency while navigating it between all the situations that threaten to steer it off course, even if unintentionally. Openness, empathy and dialog help avoid emotional responses, propose value creating opportunities and create the time needed for a successful outcome.
2. While every American may not be your target audience, remember that they can be more in agreement than we think. Bad actors will always generate more news and we will all have our differences, but don’t underestimate the silent majority.
3. It is far too easy to get comfortable with your past successes and keep doing what you’ve always been doing, thinking that your audience thinks like you do. Growth comes from people who try you for the first time, so look for new audiences that think differently, do your best to understand them, then broaden your thinking to include theirs. 
4. The medium is still the message. Television isn’t quite as dead as claimed and is still a vehicle for news. Ignore it at your peril. For all its reach and ubiquity, Social Media is a little dodgy. Use it judiciously. Take a page from your audiences’ playbook and listen to experts who are saying we’re in a marathon, not a sprint. If you’re still following the war metaphor for the struggle against SARS-CoV-2, remember wars generally take a long time before victory can truly be claimed. Don’t compromise their safety by calling this pandemic over before it really is over. Truth is a precious metal, not a commodity and should be valued accordingly. Don’t play games with your audience.
5. Try taking a look at things from Dickens’ point of view. His writings helped improve social conditions during his lifetime. Not a bad legacy to leave.
6. Healthcare has proven to be the Achilles heel of our nation. The Great Depression was an economic problem and unemployment was partially ameliorated by putting people to work on public infrastructure projects. Sick people can’t work. They will go under without health insurance. Healthcare is neither a benefit or a luxury. It is a basic necessity as long as workers are humans. Even robots receive regularly scheduled maintenance, why shouldn’t people? 
7. Language is our greatest gift as it gives all of us the chance to communicate, in speech or sign. Speech is so important we even subconsciously judge intelligence by it. Messages are never neutral, they always have meaning. Make sure you know what you want people to do when they receive your message. Then craft it accordingly. 
8. Technology has the power to liberate or enslave us. It can also keep or sell our secrets. Too much of it is being used to sell our secrets. Its potential to unleash our creativity is too big to leave it up to us to discover how to use it. The virus forces us to use it for home schooling. How can we get it into the hands of every kid and turn them into creators, designers and producers? How can we galvanize the creative and artistic communities to transform classes into learning through play?
9. Trust will take a battering throughout the next six months. Consider your message carefully. People are hurting financially and psychologically. They need support in both areas. Showing them the authentic emotional value you bring will make premium prices easier to justify.
10. We have come to rely so much on copywriters using the magic of emotions to make products interesting that may have become lazy about the need for product performance as a way to establish differentiation. Zoom has cemented the value of building a better mousetrap. It seems to be in every conversation and has become the virtual studio in so much programming produced in central locations. 
11. Context is king. Plan your media carefully. Where you run your communications is as important as your messaging. The Lincoln project spent $5,000.00 to run a single ad on the local DC Fox station just to get Trump’s attention. Anecdotally, it did!
12. Our ingrained System 1 thinking habit of acting fast, instinctively and emotionally has saddled us with a long history of eliminating species starting with Neanderthals. Now the mutation of nature that is SARS-CoV-2 humbles us by exposing our fragility. But what we have really learned from our previous encounters with Pestilence is to find ways to eliminate it. Fortunately, the younger representatives of our species seem to starting to think differently about nature. Greta Thunberg has made grump old world leaders look sadly Paleolithic when dissing her. She is far from alone in her crusade. Many of us have reached out to nature in the form of rescue pets to help sustain us through this pandemic. What if we used some of our promotional dollars to help her back.

If you made it all the way down here, I want to thank you for your interest, your patience, your perseverance and mostly to commend you for your extended attention span.

Stay safe!!!

#coronavirus #newnormal #planning #strategy #marketing