Idiotopedia: Uncertain Times
As we all know, the one-year period between 2020 and 2021 was terrible for the markets. The overall markets fell around 20%, and many stocks cracked 30-40%. Well, I can describe the situation in the stock market in the same way that can be valid for any investment managers, for whom the last few months have been an example of the latter. But again, this short article is only a personal thought and based on my experiences, so I don't intend to recommend or judge any individual or group of people in their investment activities.
I've seen terrible news and prices cascading downward in stock markets as an overview. Investors who assumed stocks were priced right 20% ago now wonder if they aren't risky at their new reduced prices - a sample of the stock prices – has nothing valuable to present to investors through their daily mood swings. This is especially true during downdrafts. As a result, many investors tend to focus on the market's intelligence and try to tell others what's happening. Therefore, I consider the day-to-day situation isn't a fundamental analyst; it's a barometer of investor sentiment. Too much emphasis on the market's decline can lead to market participants getting carried away and ignoring the underlying issues. It would be misguided to interpret the drop as a sign of the market's health.
Well... It's always a loser's game when predicting the future movement of stock prices. The objective is to make sure that the earnings and cash flows of the businesses we want (somehow) to own will be sustainable for the long term. Doing so will help minimize risk and allow us to take advantage of opportunities. But unfortunately, stock prices and future returns aren't under our control, and thus we must leave them at what they do best, that is, fluctuate. Learn... learn... Or perhaps I can say, if we're investing for a long-term project, it's very important to avoid constantly following the stock market changes. Doing so will make us miserable.
WHY?
Because it is always more profitable than investing when everything seems inevitable.
Like most people, investors are prone to uncertainties. So they would do anything to avoid events like the Russia-Ukraine crisis or the Covid-19 pandemic. It's also a good idea to avoid everything we can't control. Being successful in investing is about dealing with uncertainties. Somehow, uncertainties are an essential requirement of the investing world (well, easy to say but painful).
Most investors try to avoid situations where they can't get the information they need. Yet, high uncertainty can show (possibly) low prices. By the time the uncertainty is resolved, prices will likely rise. Despite the lack of perfect knowledge, most investors are still rewarded for their efforts when making investment decisions. However, the time spent analyzing the details may prevent them from making an informed decision. Like high fees to experts who predict the future or stocks priced based on the fact that everyone knows their future, having a great instinct for seeking out uncertainty is excellent. It can help us make money in the long run.
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Many Southeast Asia countries are often confused about the difference between risk and uncertainty, and it can be profitable to profit from this confusion. Here are some scenarios that are likely to show a depressed stock price, which is: high risk, low uncertainty;?or?high risk, high uncertainty;?or?low risk, high uncertainty. As we know, many developed countries love the idea of the fourth logical combination, which is low risk and low uncertainty. However, they should avoid investing in these businesses due to their high trading multiples. While value investors are typically reluctant to take on high risks, they are also more willing to pay for the opportunity to make money from any given investment. In addition, changing business conditions can create uncertainty and volatility in the stock market, leading to share prices diverging from underlying business values. This is where the ability to identify and capitalize on these opportunities comes in.
Studying the patterns of success in most areas is a common way to learn how to make money in the stock market. However, investing in the stock market is a world of counterintuitive strategies. Most successful traders and investors have made their money in varying ways. If one of them vouches for their winning strategy, another market savant would likely oppose it.?
I was trying to learn how to make money in a legit and good way because I am still a newbie at it, and I want to stop losing stupidly. The pros could make money in different ways because they all knew how to manage their losses. For example, while one person was making money, another person would lose if the other was in the market. So the pro's responsibility is to prevent the second person from losing. There are more than one ways to make money in the markets. Unfortunately, there are no secret strategies or methods to make a fortune in the markets, as most people who have made it in this game have already done it using different strategies and approaches. One thing that most of them have agreed to settle for is learning how to avoid losing money.
As a closing of this short article, if we are looking for ways to improve our chances of success in investing, taking an indirect approach is a good idea. This strategy involves finding ways to avoid inevitable common mistakes, such as;
But, hey... The list is long, but the idea is simple. To win in investing, find the anti-patterns and avoid them. Let's move on, think positive, and enjoy the journey since the future is already here, just not yet evenly distributed. Stay healthy and happy!