The Ideas That Will Shape 2024

CEPA’s President & CEO Dr Alina Polyakova reflects on the ideas that will shape 2024.

2024 follows a turbulent year for the transatlantic alliance and world order.?

Russia’s war against Ukraine is still raging. If Putin’s intention was to subjugate Ukraine by force, however, he has failed — after almost two years of brutal attacks, numerous war crimes, and many innocent lives lost, Ukrainians are more united than ever in their fight for freedom.

Moscow is now on a war footing, growing more confident that it can outlast the West as key elections loom on both sides of the Atlantic. Finland joining NATO and Sweden’s petition to join both re-energized the alliance and exposed internal fissures, raising the stakes for the 2024 Washington Summit where the Alliance will mark its 75th anniversary. The Hamas attack on Israel has once again focused attention on the Middle East, in a way that few predicted last year. Tensions in the Taiwan Straits remain high. And worries, as well as excitement, around AI captured the public and political imagination.

I believe that the world in 2024 will be defined by growing instability and insecurity. And if it was not clear before, it is now obvious that the global order is in the midst of a long-term geopolitical restructuring in which democratic norms and institutions will be pressured. The transatlantic alliance — the bedrock of international security — will be tested by both internal polarization as well as external economic and political pressures. Maintaining Western support for Ukraine will be crucial for securing the future of US global leadership — as CEPA’s Editorial Board warned in October of last year, “the national security of the US is inextricably bound up with Ukraine.”

Defeat in Ukraine would have catastrophic consequences for Europe and the United States, paving the way for authoritarian resurgence and geopolitical danger. The uncomfortable truth is that the only path to durable peace in Europe and the free world is Ukraine in NATO — anything short of that risks “losing all that’s been invested in Europe over the past eight decades,” as CEPA Distinguished Fellow Lieutenant General (Ret.) Stephen Twitty poignantly argues.

While security concerns will undoubtedly be top of mind for decision-makers, competition over new and emerging technologies — AI, quantum, and biotech, to name a few — will shape the future of economics, society, and geopolitics. As CEPA Senior Fellow Fiona Alexander recently wrote, as China seeks to manipulate international norms around technology, the US cannot afford to abdicate its global digital leadership.

CEPA will continue to generate cutting-edge ideas, sharp analysis, and timely policy recommendations to help decision-makers better prepare for the many challenges facing the transatlantic alliance. From envisioning a new strategy for Europe’s security architecture to analyzing the Alliance’s capabilities in the drone space and highlighting the unintended consequences of Europe’s tech agenda, CEPA consistently offers innovative, practical insights to vexing challenges. Our experts will remain at the forefront of the most critical issues shaping the global order, offering insights and guidance for the future.???I found the below agenda-setting ideas and analysis from CEPA’s experts particularly thought-provoking, and I hope you will too.

Dr. Alina Polyakova, President & CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

2023: Year in Review

The in-depth report A New Vision for the Transatlantic Alliance finds that?the only long-term security solution for Europe is eventual NATO membership for Ukraine and an?effective deterrence by denial strategy for NATO’s Eastern Flank.? For more thought-provoking reading on this topic:?

• Bringing Ukraine Into NATO Without World War III by Kurt Volker?
• The Army That Ukrainians Built by Lera Burlakova?

The?new report series on Injecting Security into European Tech Policy highlights the unintended security consequences of European tech regulation in the areas of AI, competition, cyber, chips, and export controls. For further insights?on these issues:?

• On tech, the EU doesn’t speak for Europe by Dr. Alina Polyakova and Matthew Eitel ?
• Chip Wars: China Strikes Back by Christopher Cytera?

The seminal report An Urgent Matter of Drones charts how uncrewed and autonomous weapons systems are transforming the character of war and why NATO must adapt its capabilities. ? Read more from our experts on these critical topics:?

• The Challenges Posed by 21st-Century Warfare and Autonomous Systems by Gordon B. "Skip" Davis, Jr. and Lorenz Meier?
• Economy, Autonomy, and Rethinking the Military by James Hasik

At CEPA Forum 2023 key policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic — including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Moldovan President Maia Sandu, and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli — made the case for why Ukraine’s victory matters to the United States, the NATO alliance, and the rest of the world.?

To learn?more on these topics,?visit?CEPA’s website.