ICYMI - Top Notes from Iran Daily Summaries
Top Notes from?Iran Daily Summaries?published on?04 & 05 NOV 2023:
Hasan Nasrallah’s Speech: Expectations in Tehran, Gaza, and Beyond: In Iran, analysts continue to praise Nasrallah’s “calculated” approach to the war, but many ultra-hardliners are expressing bitterness and disillusionment due to what they perceive as a contradiction between the Nezam’s rhetoric and actions. While reports do not provide the specifics of the conversation between Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the timing and manner in which the news surfaced raise questions about Iran and Hezbollah’s relations with Hamas, their foreknowledge of the attacks, and the implications for the ongoing crisis.
Taliban’s Tehran Visit: Balancing Diplomacy, Economic Opportunities: In a significant development, a high-ranking Taliban delegation from Afghanistan visited Tehran amidst rising tensions over water rights and an influx of Afghan migrants into Iran. Despite the negative public perception of the Taliban, the complex blend of economic opportunities and security concerns between the two nations has led to a growing consensus among analysts regarding the necessity of maintaining relations between Iran and Afghanistan.
Nezam’s Challenge with Unmet Expectations of ‘Super-Revolutionaries’: Unmet expectations and disillusionment among the ultra-hardliners are fueling factional tensions and prompting criticism of the Nezam and its officials. The so-called purification project, which seeks to eliminate individuals not in alignment with the ultra-hardliners’ ideology, is raising concerns among conservatives and the outlet associated with the Supreme National Security Council.
Nasrallah’s Speech: Diabolically Clever or Hollow?: Many were wondering whether Hasan Nasrallah’s 3 November speech moved the needle at all in terms of escalating the conflict with Israel. Assessments a day later suggested not much had changed, which meant that supporters of the Lebanese Hezbollah leader had to recycle earlier assessments of his non-action or attempt to come up with novel takes on why he was not carrying the fight to Israel.
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Iran and War of Economic Corridors: Iran signed a deal to create a corridor connecting China through Central Asia and Iran to Europe. While hardliners praised President Ra’isi’s “look to the East” policy for protecting Iran’s interests in the war of economic corridors, observers wonder whether the Hamas attack on 7 October was an attempt by the Iranian regime to disrupt the Arab-Med corridor, one that undermined Iran’s interests.
Embassy Takeover Still ‘Day of God’ in Islamic Republic Calendar: The hostage-taking at the U.S. embassy on 4 November 1979 has proven to be so problematic for Iran that even today the perpetrators cannot bring themselves to apologize or express remorse—assuming there is any inclination to do so. The Islamic Republic seems to have no qualms about celebrating a day dedicated to the commission of an illegal act prohibited by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.