Iconic Pessimism Finds Itself a New Time... But There's Hope

Quick note: this blog post has nothing to do with my employer. Everything expressed is macroeconomic and my reflection on the broader tech industry trends.

It's hard to believe I barely snuck into the millennial age bracket vs. GenX (at least based on some definitions). Whether I am or not, I can't help to feel what a lot of people feel, which is quite a few of these down cycles happening from the dregs of the .com bust to the Great Recession to the Covid Recession. Now into the latest one we appear to be in… I've heard it is called the Patagonia recession because of tech swag giveaways and the fact it's tech feeling the heat on this one. This iconic picture its funny I wasn't alive for it, but it sure has roared back to life again as the tech industry locally in Seattle is taking big lumps in the tech space.

I write today as the dominos keep falling around us because psychologically, it's hard to ignore this type of activity as it's happening and just maintain 100% focus. It is natural as a human to get a little distracted. For the millennials, it feels like this merry-go-round is never-ending. I can only imagine how Gen-Z is taking to it. Yet one of my best friends reminded me there was a full-blown decade of prosperity between all of this, I just wonder if many people feel they were in decent enough shape during that period to fully capitalize on it?

Everyone impacted by these layoffs, you have my support and compassion. I was part of a layoff during the Great Recession, which changed me massively. Spending months unemployed for someone who is driven is just brutal. I ultimately had to take a position that reset my salary a bit, but the next 5 years laid the groundwork for what I would become. The reality is the next couple of years will be full of massive opportunities for everyone as we rebuild the economy and shift from a preservation mentality to an expansion one. These cycles will always come, its human nature, but I'm reminded of the forest fire and its cycles. I think it's a good analogy, too, because no one is out here rooting for forest fires, and no one is rooting for layoffs (except maybe the fed with how they've handled this "super charged economy"). But life, uh it finds a way…

So these fires and these recessions will find a season, but what is important is the response by living things to these conditions. There are defenses for these conditions, and offensive strategies are coming out of them. Take the pinecone; certain varieties like "serotinous cones" don't operate like traditional seeds. They're glued shut; they don't activate until after the fires come through. When the grasses and other trees burn, the pinecones open up and only then does the next generation of pines spring forth.

Now I'm not bringing this to light to say profit off of others' misfortune, but to say if this misfortune should find its way to your door to be the pinecone. Find the areas that were dormant and waiting and activate those. Explore, be creative, give yourself a pursuit, and allow for what comes next in the face of such destruction. When the market turns, no towering trees and canopies are blocking the sun; there's just your time to reach out. We'll see waves of startups come out of this situation, opportunities to pivot careers, and people re-evaluating what is essential and chasing new passion projects.

But it's hard to feel excited about such opportunities in the face of such trauma. So here's what worked for me when I went through this in 2009; maybe it will help someone get to their own success.

1. To the best of your ability while being financially responsible, try to maintain your social life and hobbies. You still need to be you, and you'll be more positive when you're happier. You may have to swap out something like dinner at a nice restaurant for a smaller treat but it's worth floating a bit on credit IMO to maintain sanity.
2. Your network and, by extension social media can make the difference. After 7 months unemployed, it was a friend who introduced me to a consulting agency. When I came to Dell, another mutual friend of the hiring manager suggested he try me again after I initially had passed. Keep those relationships strong and networks cooking.
3. Set a 5-year goal and align all decisions with that. You're about to embark on a new journey. You don't have to wait for perfection; you just need to take a step in the right direction. Plans help with that.
4. Strongly consider working as a consultant. The dirty secret is that work still needs to be done after the layoffs. Many companies have decentralized budgets and leave it to the managers how to spend the money. When their team just got reduced, they often want to hire consultants to pick up the work left undone. The other thing about consulting is that you're constantly exposed to a ton of different ideas, clients, and industries, which means you build for what's next very quickly.
5. Remember that this isn't a reflection on you, most likely. Layoffs are often arbitrary or so massive in scope that survival of the fittest isn't in play. They're not a lion attacking a zebra; it's a meteor striking the plains. You need to go into every interview with confidence. Find ways to bolster that confidence, for me, listening to a favorite song before interviewing is always helpful for instance.

To everyone already affected directly, to everyone affected indirectly, and for those yet to come, you have a strong network of people who support and love you. This is a hard time, and you are right to feel however you feel, but hopefully, something in this you will find helpful or inspiring. All I know is I wasn't ever going to be this strong a version of myself without that layoff. I'm fond of saying you get paid in two ways for a job; money and experience. Good luck to everyone, and I hope this becomes a blip on the radar for you but one which prepares you for that next level you're capable of ascending to.