ICEAA Workshop pleasure

This article has historic links to ICEAA (International Cost Estimating & Analysis Association) . Only fifteen of my overseas presentations and papers since 2007 should be interesting to review and read.

Many thanks to co-presenters including; Mark Gilmour , Bruce Fad , Arlene Minkiewicz , Zachary J. and Arthur Griffiths .

Also, thanks to ICEAA staff with Megan Jones for running very successful workshops and retaining all the papers and presentations.

2022 - Pittsburgh

• Solving the Climate Crisis with Satellites, Fighter Aircraft & Nuclear Reactors - This paper examines the challenges of factory built, low cost, mass produced nuclear reactors, not by focusing on the technology, but the acquisition process. It will consider lessons learnt from satellite and fighter aircraft programmes which lead to the formation of a consortium of nations that could engage in nuclear power generation. Can we solve the problem of becoming zero emitters of greenhouse gasses while electricity demand is increasing globally?

2021 -Virtual

• Lessons Learned from Implementing Global Project Control - This paper examines the challenges for organisations to initiate and maintain excellence in Project Controls working with the multi-disciplinary fields of scheduling, cost estimating, risk management, EVM, reporting and monitoring. With more than fifty global stakeholder and 150+ deliverables we will explore the highs and lows of a Project Controls change programme and the lessons learned.

2019 - Tampa, Florida

• Hybrid Cost Estimating: The Union of Macro and Micro-Parametrics - At the pre-concept phase of a project the nature of the solution is varied and the number of options numerous. As the project moves into the later phases the feasibility studies begin to produce more information and the number of options starts to reduce. In a hybrid cost estimating framework solution it is possible to migrate from a macro to a micro parametric cost model without need for training or skills.

2018 - Phoenix, Arizona

• Portfolio Analysis: Estimating the UK Defence Budget - This paper will consider how to build a portfolio analysis of a government budget and, once established, what questions can be considered through this analysis. I will examine the capability gaps and the cost of replacement for obsolete capabilities. As an example the paper will consider the UK MOD budget for current and future expenditures with lessons learnt trying to conduct this ambitious analysis.

2018 - Phoenix, Arazona

• Proactive Estimating: The Analysis of Sixth Generation Aircraft - This paper will explore some of the options and alternatives which as a cost community we should be pursuing for new projects. It will examine the big, first order assumptions which we should be considering to ensure that we have a voice and that the cost is considered at the forefront of the decision process. As an example the paper will consider the options for a sixth generation fighter capability.

2017 - Portland, Oregon

• Marco-Parametrics; Its Unique Capability and Application - The Family of Advanced Cost Estimating Tools (FACET) has been used around the world as a macro parametric cost model at the early stages of a project life cycle. It has a unique capability to seamlessly transition from performance to design based estimating. FACET will also combine uncertainty in the inputs with those of the algorithm to produce a true uncertainty range. Now implemented in TruePlanning the FACET model is easy to access and apply.

2016 - San Diego

• Macro-parametrics and the applications of multi-colinearity and Bayesian to enhance early cost modelling - This paper will consider the spectrum of parametric cost models from cost estimating relationships (CER) to micro and finally macro-parametric models. This will lead to a description of the Family of Advanced Cost Estimating Tools (FACET) parametric suite of models and their top-down capability to estimate costs incorporating the application of multi-colinearity and bayesian techniques.

2016 Int'l - Bristol, UK

• What Does A Mature Cost Engineering Organisation Look Like? - Cost Engineering Health Check; How good are those numbers? is Dale Shermon's second book and co-authored with Dr Mark Gilmour. The book is the paper and the presentation will consider what a mature cost engineering organisation looks like? It will cover the essential requirements for a credible and justified cost forecast.

2013 - New Orleans

• Cost Engineering Heath Check ... How Good are your Numbers? - High quality cost estimating gives a business leader confidence to make rational financial decisions. Whether you are a business leader or a cost estimating manager, you have a vested interest in understanding whether you can depend on your organisations ability to generate accurate cost forecasts and estimates. But how can business leaders be confident that the cost information that they are being provided is of high quality? How can a cost estimating manager be sure that their team is providing high quality cost information?

2011

• Historical Trend Analysis Analysed - This article describes three alternative approaches to historical trend analysis. First, the study considers the trend over time of the complexities of past systems. This results from the application of a parametric cost model (PRICE H) to the normalisation of historical projects costs and to the plotting of the complexity over time.

2010 - San Diego, California

• How to Manage a Program Effectively - This paper will describe the importance of cost estimating to Program Control. Specifically it will consider the policy for Earned Vale Management (EVM) and the need to consider the deviation from the baseline program in an EVM System (EVMS). Through the integration of a parametric model with an EVMS application, on based upon frequent re- evaluation of the baseline, it is possible to increase the confidence in the EVM metrics.

2010 - San Diego, California

• Cost Benefit Optimisation to Achieve Affordable Force Structures - This paper will describe the application of parametric cost models to the problem of selecting the optimum Force Structure when limited defence budgets impose considerable restrictions on the shape and magnitude of the armed forces. The use of Cost Benefit analysis by means of a Combine Operational Effectiveness and Investment Appraisal (COEIA) has been a methodology used to select alternative Force Structures in many procurement agencies. It is now possible to optimise this process through the linkage of parametric models and optimisation tools such as Phoenix Integration's Model Center.

2009 - St. Louis

• Through-Life Estimating (TLE) " the need to estimate through program life - The objective of this paper is to introduce the concept of using one estimating tool to estimate hardware, software, services and IT programs consistently from cradle to grave using appropriate estimating methodologies. This paper will define the term Through-Life Estimating and describe the challenges of estimating an aerospace or defence program over the typically long gestation period of 20 to 30 years " estimating Through-Life.

2009 - St. Louis

• Systems Cost Engineering - Program Affordability Management and Cost Control - Cost estimating for major engineering hardware, software, service and IT projects is critical for ensuring a realistic evaluation of the project or program, to assess its affordability, and for managing the ongoing costs realistically. Traditional cost engineering methods are time consuming, expensive and occasionally irrational. Organizations are increasingly turning to parametrics as a means of managing cost and program affordability.

2007 - New Orleans

• Applying parametric cost modelling to Technology Insertion - The paper will describe the UK MOD need to develop a Whole Life Cost modelling tool to enable the exploration and justification of up-front investment in different acquisition scenarios for characteristics that facilitate subsequent Technology Insertion. This paper will describe a case study regarding how to apply parametric cost modelling to the attributes which are associated with Technology Insertion. The case study applies this modelling to an Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle (UCAV), although it is equally applicable to all generic system types.