iCars, Google cars, Bluecars and a new age of automobile design

My last article (Apple iCar: designed in California, Manufactured by Foxconn) seemed to have hit a nerve. Designers and critics alike complimented and commented on the design (done in 2010 by Liviu Tudoran), but the point of the article wasn't what an iCar would look like, but how and who would and could build it, and what does this mean for automotive business models. The article contends that there is a seismic shift in the value chain, away from production capabilities and toward software and design.

Given the interest in design, let me begin to speculate on the impact that shared and autonomous cars will have on automotive design.

The Mobility Revolution will spark a renaissance of creativity and boldness in the design of vehicles within (and outside of) the design studios of major manufacturers. The image accompanying this post was done almost 10 years ago at MIT to illustrate how stackable, shared, city-based vehicles could save space. There are other considerations however; while cars today have barely more than ten percent utilization rates, shared vehicles will have over fifty percent utilization rates (i.e. five times more mileage driven per year), significantly shifting the product design specification toward durability and utility. Expect manufacturers to build cars specifically designed for the rigours of car-sharing in the future, in much the same way that London, New York and other cities have specifically-designed taxis, or that UPS and the postal service specify and order dedicated vehicles for their fleets of delivery vehicles. Deutsche Post has even gone a step further - acquiring the company that designed and built its (fully-electric) delivery vehicles.

Today, most car-sharing organisations (ZipCar etc.) purchase standard-issue vehicles from manufacturers and dealers (or are indeed owned by OEMs, who use it as a channel for their own vehicles, like car2go and DriveNow). As the independent organizations and their volume orders continue to grow, however, they will begin to flex their financial muscle, insisting on fleet-orders and even dedicated vehicle specifications and designs.

Autolib’ – a car-sharing network that started in Paris using electric vehicles – operates around 3,000 of its own unique ‘Bluecar’ vehicles. Designed and engineered by Italy’s Pininfarina, the Bolloré vehicles are built exclusively for the car-sharing company’s requirements, using Bolloré’s proprietary battery technology. After Paris and Indianapolis, Bolloré is now getting set to roll-out in London. Christophe Arnaud, Deputy Chief Marketing Officer for Blue Solutions (the division of Bolloré that launched Autolib’ in Paris), told me the company is aiming for roughly 6,000 charging points and vehicles in the city, which will allow for effective short-distance, zero-emission car-sharing. The sheer scale of the movement toward fully-dedicated designs for electric car-sharing will continue to grow as quickly as the business models will change; China’s Kandi, a manufacturer of go-karts, all-terrain vehicles and electric vehicles, has started building its electric ‘EV’ exclusively for car-sharing - it aims for 100,000 - available via vending machines.

If we take it one step further, electric autonomous vehicles will lead to a sheer revolution in transport design. Without transmissions, engines, the need for the occupants to face the road, or a steering wheel, designers are free to start afresh. Google's car is (famously) already testing, design company IDEO has released its own ideas in Wired, and Mercedes-Benz showed off its autonomous vehicle concept at the CES 2015. In the UK, driverlesss vehicles are already on the roads, with designs that clearly break the mold.

So what do I believe this means for the Apple iCar? Well, we know of Apple's unique and impressive capability to design simplicity into their consumer electronics, and we know that Apple is a fan of proprietary systems and networks. We should therefore assume that their electric iCar will be designed ground-up for sharing, and to allow for autonomous driving. We should also assume that Apple will create a new and fully integrated business model, like iTunes, for an end-to-end user experience. Zero Emissions, Zero Accidents, Zero Ownership... indeed.

Another example of a proprietary design, built for electric, autonomous car-sharing, is on the cover of my book The Mobility Revolution: Zero Emissions, Zero Accidents, Zero Ownership, available now via Troubador, Barnes&Noble, Amazon and many other reputable booksellers in eBook and in Paperback. For more information, visit my website or follow me on Twitter @LNeckermann