I work, you work, WeWork.
This might be my favorite thread of the year. WeWork is aiming for a $3.5 billion IPO — of course that’s less than half of the Uber fundraise, but at the very least it's an equally exciting practice in valuation. Is it a tech company, a real estate venture or more recently, has it become an investment firm? If it’s the latter of the two, don’t get too excited. If it’s the first, the company might have timing on its side. Investors are snapping up growth stocks while value hasn’t traded this low since the dot-com bubble.
So does it matter then that the company lost almost $2 billion last year? There's a chance, like other firms, that it won't be valued on the bottom line but on its revenue potential instead. I cannot wait for the market to tell us. Banks may not be finding the animal spirits in its hedge fund clients overall in this tense market, but in Silicon Valley, those spirits have proven to be alive and well. According to our analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence:
“The company's valuation is contingent on continued revenue growth, not profitability. Sustaining that valuation may require doubling revenue annually. This requires new properties, which in turn requires cash. WeWork burned through $2.3 billion of cash in 2018, and ended the year with about $6 billion available.”
The analysts also weigh in on some pressures on valuation and the ability to raise new money:
"WeWork's last private equity funding round netted just $2 billion, down from an anticipated $16 billion, calling into question potential equity valuation. Its public bonds have traded poorly, limiting access to that market."
My other favorite aspect of this story is the indebtedness. WeWork raised hundreds of millions in its debut junk-bond deal last year and now is seeking a credit facility that may be many multiples of that size. The existing debt trades widely for its credit rating, Bloomberg analysts say. And for the debt lovers — I’d welcome your thoughts on how leveraged finance is ramping up in growth equity firms. Remember: SoftBank's Rajeev Misra said earlier this year that helping young firms tap debt markets will be a key value add. We spoke to John Vaske -- the Americas head investing giant Temasek -- on what he's looking for in earlier stage firms, without commenting on WeWork specifically. The way they manage their balance sheets is one of them.
Leverage is also a factor in how he's viewing private equity. "Firms that use leverage to generate returns, we back that out," he said. He added that he's unlikely to invest "if that's core to the generation of returns." Temasek is also looking to shift some of its private equity portfolio, looking for more $1 billion to $5 billion funds. For part of his interview with us for Bloomberg Television, click here.
More in finance:
- Deutsche Bank's Ram Nayak told fixed income staff weeks ago that their jobs were safe. That may change. Beyond that, the bank also has already made some key changes in its sweeping restructuring plan, Bloomberg's Steve Arons reports. And separately, we've written about the challenge that client exits is posing to Deutsche Bank's prime brokerage deal with BNP -- CNBC reports Barclays is a big winner, attracting $20 billion of hedge fund balances.
- Evercore is an outlier on Wall Street, posting a jump in fees tied to M&A. Separately, Lazard -- a large competitor -- said advisory fees slumped. So did asset management revenue. “Let’s face it, the asset-management business is going through a lot of changes,” said Lazard CEO Ken Jacobs in an interview. Corporate pensions are de-risking, shifting to fixed income and lower-fee quantitative strategies, and he said that phenomenon is “probably going to continue for a while."
- More in investment banking: UBS's CEO sees hurdles multiplying ahead. There's pressure on IB revenue, but also clients have pulled $1.7 billion from the key wealth management unit. Bloomberg's Patrick Winters has more here.
- More in private equity: KKR posted benefits from a rising tide in markets, with profit above Wall Street estimates even as it sold fewer assets than it did a year ago during the second quarter. Carlyle and Apollo report earnings next week.
- As scrutiny of private equity heats up after Elizabeth Warren's call to clamp down on the industry, a study shows that the industry has killed about 600,000 retail jobs. Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are getting pretty specific in the demands they're making of certain firms.
And one for fun: A writer for the show "Billions" outgunned hedge fund executives at a charity poker event last night in Manhattan. Bloomberg's Amanda Gordon was there, and this is what he says he feels about his fellow card-players:
“I’m pro-billionaire,” Ben Mezrich said. “The people at this table could solve global warming. They could sit around playing poker, getting drunk and say, ‘Let’s solve this.’ The world’s problems will be solved by billionaires and scientists.”
Hoping you have a great rest of your week,
Sonali
Head of Risk Analytics at BNP Paribas Personal Finance
5 年Manisha
no
5 年New work intend me
Owner
5 年Does pretending to work count ?..just sayin??.....ooops busted????!!lol????????
one year trening course from PTE from NSICE at +2 commerce in 1995 from punjab board first year from patiala university
5 年I do in 2017 know it's your turn