"I want to be Elected" ... 2024-UK Edition
"The Times they are A Changing" ---The Dawn of the Post-Brexit Age
Just back from the The Borders Book Festival (with the sponsorship from Baillie Gifford coming to an end) and the excellent annual political tour de force from James Naughtie which helps set the backdrop on both sides of the Atlantic, especially timely this year. Some of the thoughts are incorporated into the comments below.
The General Election was set three weeks ago with a July 4th date. After the initial surprise the attritional early stages have passed and we have entered the more definitive stage where Candidates have been confirmed and the Manifestos are being published.
Whatever the justification for holding an election on July 4th were for the Prime Minister the first three weeks have been pretty abysmal in terms of campaigning for him with banana skins everywhere. Its felt bit like a soccer team heading out of the dressing room onto the pitch with no defence and no goalkeeper. The other parties have had a field day which has been reflected in the opinion polls and little sign so far of any recovery. What seems almost like low key inertia and almost boredom during the campaign is not likely to be repeated should a new Labour Government be installed. A period of transformational activity , and a positive (and perhaps firm ) approach to leadership and government looks on the cards. (dare one say united )
Boundary Changes
The general election will be fought across 650 new constituencies after boundary changes were approved by parliament. With only 77 constituencies remaining unchanged, the boundary review changes which seat many people will be voting in. Not only does it mean that seats may have a new name, but geographical changes to seat boundaries many also mean that historical knowledge of voting patterns may be irrelevant, having implications for those hoping to vote tactically.
Candidates
The formal list of candidates is out ......and there is a big increase,
More than 4,500 candidates are standing to be elected in the 650 constituencies across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
It means that the election, on 4 July, sees a 35.7% increase on the 2019 poll.
The increase primarily comes from Reform UK ending its promise not to stand against Conservatives, the Green Party standing more candidates and the Workers Party of Britain entering its first general election.
There has also been a large spike in the number of independent and smaller party candidates standing. Matthew Flinders, professor of politics at Sheffield University, said an increase in candidates means this election means the next government will see "more marginals" and "more fluidity between elections".
The Opinion Polls -- A change is coming and it could be seismic. A reminder, as we keep being told, that no votes have been cast yet... but the picture is developing into something pretty horrendous for the Conservatives with a squeeze from multiple directions. The process is first past the post with 650 seats (including those in Northern Ireland which has 18 seats ) ..
The Ranges of options are fascinating, and still showing a big Labour Victory . The latest poll from Survation( thanks Damian Lyons Lowe )gives a great insight as to some of the dynamics at play and also minor shifts in voting patterns can bring big changes. There are polls almost daily which have been relatively static in terms of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour, with uplifts in support for the Liberals and obviously Reform (which Survation also captures in their latest poll)
The survey has Labour on track for a 262 seat majority with 456 seats. The Conservatives get 72 seats, The Liberals 56, The SNP 37 , Plaid Cymru 2 and the Greens 1.
(The range for the Conservatives has extended from over 200 seats down to 5, and I have seen the SNP as low as 10 form as high as 37. ) A couple of key things to look for would be whether the Labour Party overtakes the SNP in Scotland, and the Liberals get more seats than the Conservatives. Also looking at this survey Reform wins 7 seats. (Worth watching Nigel Farage in Clacton)
What can we look forward to after Election Day?--Stand & Deliver
Parliament is due to sit again on July 11th and one can expect some early action should the results be as the polls suggest. There is normally a long summer recess from late July till early September, but there are already suggestions that an Incoming Labour Government would shorten this. One can expect some early action, for example, in the Rwandan Migration policy being cancelled. There will also be some early policy colour, but there is a need to see the full state of the Economic position and the Labour Party has said it will give the OBR the full 10 weeks notice to come up with independent forecasting. That does imply the earliest that a Budget could be would be Mid September, or potentially comes after the Party Conference Season Recess in mid October.
In addition to the Budget there will be a lot of attention on other key areas such as Education and health. Energy, The Energy Transition, and Infrastructure have also been earmarked for early action and I certainly want to see more colour on the GB Energy proposals and how targets may be brought forward. How firm will the approach be here?
Just because the Labour campaign has been very safe and seemed non committal, that doesn't mean that they won't take things forward at pace. It is a huge opportunity if the results are anything like the polls are suggesting.
What about Brexit ?
Perhaps the biggest issue facing the UK, the aftershocks and implementation of Brexit, is noticeably absent from the political discourse and this was covered eloquently in the talk today. There are brief mentions in the Manifestos but this is conspicuously absent from the Conservative/Labour discourse.
领英推荐
The Brexit votes and actual exit have taken place under the same political party, though this is the third general election post the original referendum, and there have been five Prime Ministers since the 2016 result was announced (Cameron, May, Johnson , Truss , and Sunak.
Now we have the prospect of a Government being elected which hasn't had ownership of the process up to now. We now have the potentially changed dynamic and effectively entering the Post Brexit Era . An early cooperation on the Defence and Security pact with the EU is the first opportunity which should be oven-ready. Look out for that as an early sign of a move to more positive engagement. Europe also has its own electoral backdrop but has definitely kept to the sidelines in this campaign.
What about the political aftershocks?
A result of the type currently projected would lead to some fairly significant political fallout. The winners would appear to be Labour, The Liberals and it will be interesting to see how Reform does in potential votes, and possible seats.
SNP
The SNP should end up with a significantly fewer number of seats. The SNP goal is to remain the largest party and preferably with a majority of Scottish seats (29) to allow the Independence Goal to claim to be mandated. The big pressure comes from the resurgent Labour.
Conservatives
The fallout from the result could be apolyptic with One Nation Conservatives and the Right Wing of the Conservatives battling for an identity. This could take a considerable time, and potentially longer than five years. It is worth remembering that the further parties go from the centre ground in the UK Electoral system the less likely they are to become the Government.
With under three weeks to go the Conservatives face threats from across the political spectrum and very difficult to find somewhere to set a firm base and to shore up. The downside risk may still be underpriced. Multiple threats from Reform , Labour, The Liberals , and also even the SNP (the seat I am in )
Some Light Reading
The Manifestos-- these are mostly now out .. and a few are below -- awaiting the SNP which is due this week along with reform. The Labour Party Manifesto is certainly worth a read.
Elections Elsewhere ..
Europe , France , and the United States are also in Poll Focus. The European Eelections with a swing to the right away from the Greens triggered a snap Parliamentary Election in France which is ongoing, and we are obviously awaiting the drama of the US Elections in November.. There is plenty to discuss on the US Elections including on Sharks and Batteries.
Two things to follow up on from the Naughtie talk this afternoon. The first was the key role that Pennsylvania will play(Pittsburgh and Philadelphia) along with Wisconsin and Michigan.
The second thing is the potential increasing role that Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio might play in any Trump campaign. It was clear also that the Global political system could change dramatically. (NATO, Russia-Ukraine , China-Taiwan) . Thats for another day ...
The focus is back on July 4th ... The change is coming and there may finally be a more stable domestic political backdrop, at least for the near term.
Philip Kerr