“I see it better now that I see it from a distance”
Vishal Paul
Qualified IICA-MCA Independent Director / DVS GROUP - Trader, Investor, Entrepreneur, Eternal Optimist.
The significance of posting the above photo which invoked an EUREKA MOMENT in me will be understood after you have read my memoir article below.
Right from my childhood I have been a seeker of knowledge as to how this world works. I have always been in awe of people who know so much be it the ones who are masters at their craft, to the ones who touch everything superficially and have mastered storytelling, to the ones who are so social and know what to say so well, to the eloquent public speakers, to the ones who know so much but unable to express, to the spiritual enlightened masters and all in between. The “WHY OF THINGS” which is the motto of London School of Economics has always resonated with me very well.
When I was at the age of 10–12 years my favorite book I recall vividly was “Tell me why” which explained in two volumes all the phenomenon that occurs in the world which they could package into those volumes then. One experiment which it spoke of comes back vividly to me is to get a magnifying glass in the open when the sun light passes through it on to a paper below and given the right amount of time?, angle, intensity of sun the paper can burn. I spent several days and hours practicing this to explore and make this work apart from rubbing flint stones to ignite a spark and then a full-fledged fire. These experiments intrigued me and I could not make sense of “THE HOW OF THINGS “. But all the while observing that things happen at their own pace and for a reason that we may not know.
Flash forward life happened and the curious child’s mind started accepting things, sometimes coerced into submission but always reading and finding answers in his own ways to the phenomenon called life all around subconsciously. I finished my schooling with flying colours and scored great towards the end. Then college followed which again was a new journey to the new found freedom for a teenager and especially to a curious mind like mine. Towards the end I graduated well and pursued a post grad MBA. But throughout the college journey I was always pulled towards business and work so did internships and side hustles. But all was not hunky and dory?,there were slip years, pain points, events that pulled me down and many downs along the journey too.
I straight away started with my own business on completion of studies to explore the business side where much happened as a flow and I do not wish to highlight it claiming any bragging rights rather just state it as it is. I have in my past 25+ years of business done businesses right from Garment exports in niche categories to the world over as a Merchant exporter, Trading of yarn & fabrics, Sole Distributor of renowned world brands like Levis, Dockers, Wrangler and more, Real estate finance, Buying and selling of lands, Development of real estate, Facilitating of coal trade and mines in Indonesia to India, trading of precious metals and diamonds, investing and trading in stocks, ETFs, RIETS, INVITS and commodities using fundamental and technical analysis. These have been the works which have enriched me monetarily and with wisdom galore.
But as I said everything cannot be a success story and just like a parent loves his weakest child more I have had my share of failed business attempts on account of various reasons some known and some invoking the seal of fate. a) I had been passionate to explore the food business of long cut pasta for exports to West Africa and India spending quantum time in Italy visiting over 15 factories. b) I have been through the length and breadth of my state (meeting farmers, traders, equipment suppliers, government bodies, oil marketing companies and politicians) which holds the sugar bowl of India to set up the sugar and futuristic then ( 2007) and relevant now (2023) Ethanol for Blending Distillery. c) I have also delved deep into the process to study and explore setting up a tire to oil project using waste tires. d) I have worked to make and launch my own denim jeans brand. I have whilst pursing these projects which started with euphoria endured periods of rejection, periods of inordinate delays, self-doubt, deceit, bad debts, litigation and eventual self-introspection. Nevertheless I thoroughly enjoyed in each business attempt and the entire journey and its experience is very close to my heart. I learnt a lot about myself and my drawbacks through these failed attempts much more than the cliché chest thumping wins.
Year 2020 was a life altering experience not just for me but the entire world I am very sure all will agree. We all learnt so much about the fragile nature of our own very existence and our EGO which can get crushed in the very moment when tide turns against us. I had to shut down my business like millions of MSME businesses and we all were sitting home. This is the exact time where because of my natural inclination and affinity to liking business I was on and off studying about stock markets and shares but never in a structured manner and from right mentors. During the home stays we all became tech experts in using the same and I got a forward on my cell of the above photo on day “Periods when to make money”. As usual it intrigued me and I started to see it keenly and seeing all events rights from 1924 to 2020. What I saw was clearly that 2020 was depicted in this pic as a clear falling trend and many events in the past did actually happen and markets rose or fell accordingly. (Would love to give credit to whoever made this but stays unknown to me and would appreciate if someone knows to put in the comment box below).
My eyes dilated and interest piqued, I was seeing a photo which depicted almost a century compressed into one and majority events happened the way they did. I wondered who made this and how did he know. But one thing came out starkly was that it depicted a CYCLE of peaks and troughs?, ups and downs and an entire century has had its ups and downs affecting lives, economies?, welfare, inventions and almost every event in the world. This is when it all made sense to me and I started thinking aloud if the bigger life works in a cycle then the anything within it will also work in a cycle and cannot stay insulated with just a growth or decline trajectory. We are just FRACTALS of the WHOLE.
This is when I got the answers to my certain questions as to why I was sent on a journey through so many businesses successful and unsuccessful ones of course through choices that I alone made for myself. People in India starting in the 1990s majority would be in the same business / family business and very few would venture out of their core competence but I was given a chance to do with breaks and pushes being redirected all the time into a business which I currently embarked upon after years of study post seeing this image. The trading and investing business in stock markets now makes sense to me as I am well versed with so many businesses and its allied activities, raw materials, finance, logistics, legal implications, laws and a gamut of experiences. This gives me an edge and interest in studying the business models and its finances to then finally short list enter via technical charts. It’s a work in progress and this business of capital markets is a vast field infact a paradise for someone who just isn’t it for returns but also for the love of companies and businesses. New age technologies like AI/ML and Algorithmic trading is emerging and transforming it daily. The sudden covid shock in my case made me question and find a business where buying a selling was not dependent on someone but transparent as we all saw payment delays and many people succumbing, it also made me think which business can be done sitting at home digitally, it also made me think where can we find a gap to capture profits, which business can be easy for tax purposes and so which lead me to Trading as the perfect business for me online. I have all my life been a trader if you can see and every time I had a failure in any attempt to do a new business was in getting into a manufacturing business. I am ready for the next innings. All this while I was being prepared for my next role of a TRADER and INVESTOR with new age online set up.
My current conclusions (and they may be transformed and improved going forward) as life doesn’t stop teaching you is to see every event as a part of the whole preparing you for a new role ,a new learning a new adventure and a new you.
Everything is CYCLICAL and yet not a loop (like the photo chart I have posted above) it’s like a river that flows ahead in a rhythm or as a snake which moves side to side but never in a line. Life is a series of preparations for the coming experiences based on your choices. There are lot of coincidental ties in life.
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· Businesses first move Sideways when starting establishing critical components and appearing random, then they come to a phase of Growth followed by Maturity and then Decline phase giving chance for a new business to arise.
· Life starts with Young age?, Youth, Middle Age, Old Age, Rebirth ( believed by many )
· Trading Charts show accumulation, mark up, distribution, mark down.
· Nature depicts Seed, roots, Tree, uproot, pollination and so on.
· Economies and Empire are first Poor, Developing, Developed, and Collapse then rebuilt.
And many many more examples if you think aloud.
“No man ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river, and he’s not the same man.” — Heraclitus