I Saw Today's News a Year Ago

In 2023, I made several predictions in the social, cultural and political spheres. How did I get on?

Social and Cultural Predictions

Firstly, regarding social and cultural shifts, I believed that 2024—and perhaps even more so 2025—would be seen as pivotal years. I thought we would transition culturally from what was before to a new era. I don't know if that's come true yet, but it does feel like things are changing. Of course, it will take many years to fully understand these shifts, so it's hard to say for certain.

Political Predictions

The other predictions I made in 2023 were more specific and centered around political matters. I suggested that 2023 would be a tough year for incumbents. As people may know, 2024 is expected to be a year when the most people in the history of humanity go to the polls. It's one of those peculiarities of election cycles aligning globally.

My thought was that, given COVID-19 and economic concerns, incumbents would struggle to win elections. Let's review the specific predictions I mentioned:

United States

• Donald Trump's Presidency: I predicted that Donald Trump would win the presidency. Which came true.
• Republican Control of Congress: I said Republicans would win both the House and Senate.
• Joe Biden as the Democratic Candidate: I predicted that Joe Biden would remain the Democratic candidate. This was not correct. I thought there was not enough time to get a new candidate – perhaps I was right on not enough time but not on Joe Biden as Candidate.

United Kingdom

I believed that the election would be challenging for the Conservatives, expecting them to suffer a large defeat. While the Labour Party didn’t gain more votes than in 2019, the emergence of other parties allowed them to win more seats due to the first-past-the-post system.

India

I thought that Prime Minister Narendra Modi might be an exception to the trend of incumbents struggling. I predicted he would retain his government comfortably. However, this proved not entirely correct. While Mr. Modi remains as Prime Minister it is now a coalition government.

New Zealand

In New Zealand, I predicted that the incoming government would be bolder in its approach to spending, budgets, and staffing the public service. Despite some people suggesting the government is engaging in austerity, we must remember that the government budget is the largest it has ever been. Interestingly, despite redundancies and restructuring, recent news indicates there are more civil servants now than a year ago.

After a year, there's no clear trend in New Zealand's polls. It appears that if elections were held today, we'd likely get the same result as before. Whether that's good or bad for the government is open to interpretation.

Reflections

So, what can I make of all this? I'm not someone with access to exclusive information. Like everyone else, I observe what's happening and make some educated guesses. While many mainstream media outlets and analysts were suggesting that Donald Trump would lose, I thought he would win.

Why Did I Think That?

• Incumbency Issue: People often vote out incumbents during tough times.
• Economic Perception: The economy is heavily influenced by public perception. If voters feel the economy isn't doing well, it can impact their choices at the polls.
• Democratic Party's Focus: I felt the Democratic Party was concentrating on issues that seemed out of touch with ordinary voters. For example, debates around identity did not resonate as much when everyday costs like bread and butter are rising. A shift back to traditional "bread and butter" issues might be something for them to consider.

On Pundits and Media

This brings me to a larger point about analysts and the media. Analysts often get things wrong, and if they align with your views, you might not be getting objective analysis but rather “copium” that reinforce your beliefs. Those who make a living from analyzing and predicting should strive to be more accurate.

I'm not launching any new platform or asking for subscriptions. Instead, perhaps it's a good time to reflect on what we want from our pundits. Trust in the media is at an all-time low and continues to decline. Elon Musk recently said, "You are the media now," and it's hard to argue with that.

By using platforms like X, I'm exposed to voices different from mine—sometimes expressed crudely, sometimes elegantly, and sometimes in ways I can't quite grasp. But hearing different perspectives is valuable.

Social Media and Diverse Opinions

One challenge with social media is assuming that every opinion we encounter represents a significant portion of the population. Whether it's one person out of a billion or a widespread sentiment, it's hard to tell.

If all your information sources only reinforce your existing beliefs, making it impossible to understand differing viewpoints, that's a “you” issue. We need to be more interested in understanding how others think—a practice I try to maintain myself. Understanding how someone arrives at their opinion doesn't mean all opinions are valid or good, even if they're held in good faith. However, engaging with opposing views can be enlightening and may even help to predict the future!

#PoliticalPredictions #MediaAnalysis #CulturalShifts #DiversePerspectives #ElectionInsights