If I Ruled The World: 4 Paths to Under 350ppm of CO2 in the Air

I was recently asked “If you ruled the world, what four things would you do to save the planet?” The goal is to return the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to under 350 parts per million (ppm), which is the accepted “healthy zone” for CO2. Scientists first started measuring CO2 levels on the pristine mountaintop of the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii in 1958, when the number was 316 ppm, slightly higher than the pre-Industrial level of 280 ppm. In May, 2013, the level tipped over 400 ppm for the first time. After making sure that I didn’t have the power to blink and put the world back in the pre-Industrial era, when I would have left fossil fuels in the ground, I came up with my list. Here it is:

1. Educate girls and women. While educating everyone is important, since only 1 in 7 Americans understand that 97% of scientists believe climate change is caused by humans[i], we have the most to gain by focusing on females. In less developed countries, women have scarce access to a range of resources, from education and technology to land and credit. Yet, they produce 60-80% of the food crops in poorer parts of the world, often as unpaid or poorly paid laborers[ii]. Education is the best form of contraception. Family planning and access to contraceptives can lead to a decrease in birth rate of 30%[iii]. Family planning allows women to have the number of children they desire, at the intervals that work for them. Population growth and the accompanying increased consumption are the major contributors to water scarcity and climate change. Decreased birth rates generally lead to increased economic prosperity. And as the graphs below show, more people mean more CO2 emissions.

The Social Determinants of Health- where you are born, grow, live, work and age- play an oversized role in disease occurrence and climate change is a risk amplifier for disease. This initiative is primarily focused on less developed nations. To implement this step requires comprehensive schooling, including sex education, in these nations. Financial institutions should encourage micro-loans and micro-credit for women-owned businesses. Research and development should focus on crops that women cultivate and farming systems they use. Better education means better health, better life choices, and better nutrition.

2. Implement carbon sinks and carbon sequestration. Besides limiting the greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere, we need to develop techniques to remove what is already out there. Carbon sinks are elements of the natural environment that remove carbon dioxide from the air, such as carbon-absorbing forests or peat bogs. Carbon sequestration can be either a natural or artificial process that removes carbon and holds it in solid or liquid form and can come about through human ingenuity. These techniques can be considered “climate intervention”. Ocean fertilization is a human-designed process that involves dumping iron filings into seawater to stimulate phytoplankton growth, which absorbs CO2.[iv] Similarly, Direct Air Capture (DAC) seeks to remove CO2 from the air by harnessing photosynthesis.[v] One promising DAC unit uses amine-based chemicals and porous ceramics to act as a carbon “sponge”, removing CO2 from the air. The entire process is carbon negative. An explanatory video on carbon sinks can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OoW2PlvMpZs

To implement this, we need to encourage research and development in carbon sequestration around the globe. College scholarships and grants in environmental engineering should be freely awarded. We can get started now, by simply planting more trees. The health impacts of clean air and water are numerous: less illness and disease, longer life spans, better economies and jobs, and stronger communities.

3. Mandate Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS).  RPS’ are policies requiring that an electric company in a country or state supply a certain percent of their energy via renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind or geothermal. This is a shift away from fossil-fuel provided energy from coal, oil or gas, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. For example, the state of Maryland has an RPS goal of 25% by 2020, meaning that 25% of all electricity used in the state will be generated from renewable sources by 2020. The Paris Climate Agreement allows flexibility for countries to implement their own RPS’, and China, Japan, the European Union, the United Kingdom and others have placed their stakes in the ground. When the US declared in 2017 that it was leaving the Paris Agreement, there was an immediate outcry from states who realized it was a bad idea. They formed the US Climate Alliance, which mirrors the Paris Agreement. As of August 1, 2019, 29 states and the District of Columbia participate in the US Climate Alliance. Policy makes a big difference in how quickly a transition to renewable energy can be made, and in fact roughly half of the growth in renewable energy generation in the US since the year 2000 can be attributed to state renewable energy requirements.[vi] Independent scrutiny of the Alliance’s 2018 Annual Report shows that Alliance states are not only outpacing non-Alliance states in reducing their emissions, they are also growing their economies at a faster pace. Truly a win-win.

For implementation, countries should direct regional teams to target the best renewable energy source for their geography (i.e., solar in Kenya, wind in Iceland) and require a goal of 100% renewable electricity by 2050. Incentives via tax breaks and other carrots should be offered to countries to reach this goal earlier. And, the US should get back in the Paris Agreement since the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The benefits include intact ecosystems, clean air and water, less drought, famine, flooding or human migration, and the myriad health benefits that come with these improvements.

4. Pass other legislation for efficiency and conservation. It would be nice if legislation encouraging people and businesses to do the right thing was not necessary, but that is not the world we currently live in. Here are just a few suggestions:

• Cap and Trade/Cap and Dividend legislation for businesses, especially oil companies, fossil fuel power plants, and other high greenhouse gas emitters. These policies set a maximum amount, or cap, of greenhouse gas emissions that a company or plant can emit in a given year. They must pay a fee for any amount over that cap, for example, $20 per ton of CO2 emitted over the limit. To be most effective, the price should go up every year, giving the company a big incentive to find ways to operate more cleanly. If a company does not reach the maximum cap, they receive a credit per ton of CO2 under the cap, thereby putting money in their pocket. “Cap and Trade” allows these credits to be sold to high-emitting companies on the market. Similarly, the money collected in fees can be distributed to the country on a per capita basis as a dividend in the “Cap and Dividend” scenario. While it can be difficult to quantify how putting a price on pollution leads to environmental benefits, a recently unveiled tool called the E3 (for Energy, Environment, and Economy) Carbon Tax Calculator was developed by Stanford researcher Marc Hafstead and is an excellent start. It is being constantly refined.

If you want to know more about Cap and Trade, please watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxs6ZrxLvHg

To test out the E3 calculator yourself, use this link:https://www.resourcesmag.org/common-resources/introducing-the-e3-carbon-tax-calculator-estimating-future-co2-emissions-and-revenues/

• Electric vehicle subsidies. In the US in 2019, the IRS offers $2500-$7500 tax credits for lowering the upfront cost of plug-in electric vehicles (EV’s) used for personal use. State and local governments need incentives to replace buses, trolleys and mass transportation with clean, renewable energy vehicles as well.
• Rewards for business innovation. The internationally known EnergyStar designation means the appliance or product is energy efficient. LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design)-certification is the most widely used green building rating system in the world. Much more can be developed through innovative design.
• “Net Metering” policies. These policies allow customers who have their own rooftop solar or wind renewable energy system to sell any excess energy that they generate back to their public utility at a retail rate and get credit on their bill.
• Other ideas: Public transportation subsidies, rewards for telecommuting, and incentives to develop storage and better links to the energy grid for renewable energy generation.

To implement these legislative ideas, it is critical to shift the framing from climate policy to health policy. We must find shared values such as the well-being of children or the ability to save money from lower health care costs. If we improve the health of the planet, we improve the lives of every living thing on it.

References

[i] NASA. 2019. Scientific Consensus: Earth’s Climate is Warming. https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/. Retrieved August 23, 2019.

[ii] Hawken P. 2018a. Women Smallholders. Page 76. Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reduce Global Warming.

[iii] Parker C. 2019. Climate Change and Population Growth. Climate Change and Health course, Johns Hopkins University.

[iv] Geoengineering Technology Briefing (GTB). 2018. Ocean Fertilization. https://www.geoengineeringmonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Geoengineering-factsheet-OceanFertilization.pdf.

[v] Hawken P. 2018b. Direct Air Capture. Page 192. Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reduce Global Warming.

[vi] National Conference of State Legislatures. 2019. State Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals. https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/renewable-portfolio-standards.aspx

The Paris Agreement Presents a Flexible Approach for U.S. Climate Policy