I, Robot and the 3 Laws of Robotic Jobs
There doesn’t seem to be much media publicity given to the 2016 One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence(AI100) report. The ambitious study hosted by Stanford University “is a 100-year effort to study and anticipate how the effects of artificial intelligence will ripple through every aspect of how people work, live and play.”
The 52 page report is well written and I would recommend it to anyone seeking to make sense of how AI will impact one’s day to day life. Of particular interest to me were pages 38 and 39 of the report, which outlined AI’s potential impact on employment and the workplace. It is perhaps the most balanced overview of the challenges and opportunities presented by AI on the Jobseconomy.
I think it is a given that AI will have a significant impact on jobs. The report predicts that AI will invade almost all employment sectors. The question is “what will the impact be, and how will we respond?”
Some of my takeaways from the report:
1) “AI will likely replace tasks rather than jobs in the near term, and will also create new kinds of jobs. But the new jobs that will emerge are harder to imagine in advance than the existing jobs that will likely be lost.”
2) “Many organizations and institutions are large because they perform functions that can be scaled only by adding human labor... As AI takes over many functions, scalability no longer implies large organizations. Many have noted the small number of employees of some high profile internet companies.”
3) AI will allow new markets and modes of interaction to be created. Beyond being a threat, it could “have the effect of lowering the cost of many goods and services, effectively making everyone richer.”
4) “Many middle-aged workers have lost well-paying factory jobs and the socio-economic status in family and society that traditionally went with such jobs. An even larger fraction of the total workforce may, in the long run, lose well-paying “cognitive” jobs. As labor becomes a less important factor in production as compared to owning intellectual capital, a majority of citizens may find the value of their labor insufficient to pay for a socially acceptable standard of living.”
5) “As exemplified in current political debates, job loss is more salient to people - especially those directly affected.”
According to Asimov, and portrayed in the movie I, Robot: “A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.”
Given the points above, perhaps it is time to have a discussion around a set of rules or laws for AI and jobs? In addition, is it possible to use technology to help us solve these issues?
Governments and business leaders that ignore this growing trend do so at their peril. Job losses affect people, and as long as people have a vote at the polls, perhaps this will be an issue that needs to be managed carefully?