I Just Dropped In to See What Condition My Recession Was In, Yeah, Yeah, Oh Yeah....
Ok, so much for my homage to the Acid Rock New Edition beginnings of the late Country Hall of Fame Legend Kenny Rogers. I was reading a recent newsletter posting on my own website The Shape of the Recovery (Yes, I need to read the content on my own website to keep abreast of whats on it. I do not originate all that cool stuff myself. I rely on a third party to build and maintain it. I am sure that somewhere there is a gifted financial advisor who does it all them self. I am no such titan of content and web creativity. I also eat generic store brand macaroni and cheese.)
In an earlier opine, I reflected on the words of the late, great President Harry S. Truman who bemoaned the lack of clarity from his economic advisors."What this country needs..." he said, "...is a good one handed economist!" We are now learning that recoveries from recession can and do take different shapes. Sort of like people. Some of us are pear shaped, others are apple shaped and still a select few are cover of Yoga Magazine shape. I have for some years attended the yoga classes at my YMCA but as of yet my yoga poses resemble Fred Flintstone on Xanax wrestling an anaconda. But I digress.
Economists and Stock Market Mavens tell us that the shape of the recovery will give us valuable clues as to health and durability of the recovery. They long for the vaunted V shaped recovery. Like the shape of a male Olympic gymnast or swimmer. Then there is the U shaped recovery, reminiscent of an obese carbohydrate fiend with sleep apnea who rolls out of bed onto the floor. After snoozing uncomfortably on the floor, they eventually find their way back into bed. Usually with the help of an aggravated spouse. As well I know.
The truth is, there are far too many variables, I think, to accurately predict the shape of the recovery. We will, however, see it plainly in hindsight. What we do know, with some confidence, is we will recover. Things will get better for the economy. That should translate into better times for most of us. Not all.
Every recession is a disrupter. It unmasks what is working and what isn't, resulting in the "Creative Destruction" touted by German economist Joseph Shumpeter. Like the cycles of nature, economic cycles have winners and losers. Web retail appears to be a winner, older retail stores anchored in malls appear to be a loser. You get the idea.
No matter the shape of the recovery, now is the time for sizing up the shape each of us needs to be in to face the future. Us old dogs will need to learn new tricks. And to attain a fit and vigorous shape, avoid the carbs. Donuts, no mas!