I hope you are running because everyone else is and rates are coming down..

A DOSE OF WISDOM

"Our life is March weather, savage and serene in one hour."— Ralph Waldo Emerson

THE FIRST HIT

I don't know WHAT it is, but for some reason, when we shift back to this time, WHATEVER the heck it is, I just FEEL better! I have more energy and am in a better mood! I just seem to get more done. Let's LEAVE IT!!!!

Ok...this touches a couple of things...hazard insurance, hazard insurance premiums, Texas weather and AI. First....the event....

While we were in Cancun, a pretty nasty storm blew through the hood. We live on a cul-de-sac, and this is the backyard of the house across the street. That is a 70' tree hitting the deck. My neighbor said he had just got back from dinner, walked out on the back deck and said "that tree looks like it's going to go"...and took out his phone. Between hail, tornadoes, wind, hurricanes, flooding and the influx of Californians, Texas is near the TOP when it comes to weather related and other disasters.

Here it what is left of that tree a couple of days later. I walked across the street thinking a few of those chunks would make nice tables to go between the Adirondack chairs around the fire pit. Then I tried to pick one up. All of a sudden it did not seem like that was such a great idea...

I was sitting there thinking.....I wonder how old that tree was. THEN I thought....why not let GROK think about it? So....I uploaded this picture to Grok, set it to DeepSearch and asked it how old the tree was.

What I saw was pretty amazing. First, it THOUGHT about it, then analyzed the image, counted the rings, and estimated the tree's age. Then, it calculated diameter growth, searched 28 different web pages, evaluated growth factors, enhanced the image and assessed the accuracy of the ring count and did it all in a few seconds.

And....what did it come up with??

Conclusion and Final Estimate

Considering the growth ring count of 38, the diameter of approximately 20 inches, and the likelihood of the tree being a white oak with potentially faster-than-average growth, the tree's age is estimated at 38 years. This fits within the expected range for a white oak under favorable conditions, where rapid growth could account for the observed diameter. The uncertainty in growth rate data is acknowledged, but the ring count provides the most accurate estimate for this specific tree.

Table: Comparison of Growth Rate Estimates

I came across this last night while working on this daily rant and like it. a lot. Lead YOURSELF first....and SPEED IS a WEAPON!! MANY times it'snot about being BEST as much as it is about being FIRST!

FHA loan delinquency rate rises to 11.3% as overall mortgage landscape remains healthy

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CONTROLLED MARKET SUBSTANCE

Can you say correction? And....it does not look like the selling is over quite yet as the futures are down pretty hard at the moment. We'll see what the day brings, but let's take a look ahead at the economic calendar.

Not much today.......but

Tuesday: - JOLTS job openings

Wednesday: - CPI

Thursday: - PPI

Friday: - Michigan Consumer Sentiment

then.....the following Monday we get Retail Sales followed by.....

Wednesday...the 19th....the FOMC rate decision and Powell's press conference.

Lastly.....NEXT Friday is the first triple witching OPEX during the new administration. Money and liquidity will be flowing all over the place and I think will introduce further volatility in to the market....and in fact is already doing so.....as investors take positions based on some of the new realities in the markets (options expiration where weekly, monthly and quarterly options all expire on the same day)

10 Year Yield - Rates have come down pretty hard. I kind of THINK they are going to KEEP coming down. We'll see.....

Take a look at the CME group's Fedwatch tool. At the MOMENT, there is only a 3% chance of rate cut next week. I won't go through the whole thing.....but we'll see how QUICKLY this changes for May.

Any chance we get a surprise next week?????