I Fear We are Entering the Worst Job Market Since the Great Recession!

Over the past 16 years I have been both a career coach and also an owner/operator of an agency recruiting business. I survived the Great Recession in recruiting and sold this business to one of my staff and focused on career coaching.

I have seen many economic downturns over my 30+ year career, and I fear that we are entering the worst unemployment market since the Great Recession. Here are the factors that I see are driving this looming economic and hiring downturn:

1. There is a Significant Chance of an Upcoming Recession: with significant voices in economics and finance, from UBS to Citi's Chief Economist, forecasting a downturn mid-year, citing rising credit card delinquency rates, weakening consumer spending and continued inflation. Notably, the yield curve inversion, a reliable recession predictor, points to a 61% probability of an economic downturn in the near future. Companies nationally are reevaluating their strategies, particularly relating to hiring activities. This cautious approach is setting the stage for a more competitive and challenging employment market, as firms tighten their belts in anticipation of tougher times ahead.
2. Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Large Language Models (LLMs): these new and rapidly advancing technologies are already affecting the employment market as companies work to trim their workforces and increase productivity. I am using ChatGPT, Bing and other tools in my business to improve productivity and generate better results. This is only going to increase in the near future.
3. Companies Beyond Tech are Trimming Their Workforces: in 2023 technology company layoffs dominated the news and haven’t stopped, but even health companies in various industries and pre-emptively trimming the workforces and labor costs. For example, Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, announced another round of layoffs, effective March 31st, affecting its US engineering, technology and software staff. ?
4. Companies Become More Conservative in Hiring Before a Presidential Election: companies crave certainty and loathe uncertainty. Before every US Presidential election, we see companies reduce all non-critical hiring until after the election results are announced. This year is particularly odd as we move throughout the election cycle and is creating a higher level of uncertainty.

If you are a job hunter right now what does this mean for you? You need to become an expert job hunter which means you need to develop an effective job search plan, market yourself, leverage your network to identify opportunities in the “Hidden Job Market” and improve your interview planning and execution. If you need help in any of these areas, just contact me.

About the Author:

Mark Lauterbach is a dedicated career and job search coach with a rich background in steering individuals through the complexities of job hunting. With a career foundation built on personal experience from seven job searches and refined through the coaching of hundreds over the past 9 years, Mark has developed the transformative Job Search Accelerator Program. This program includes his vast knowledge and insights, aiming to streamline the job search process for professionals across various organizations and industries.

Mark's passion for career development is rooted in a genuine desire to see others succeed. He is committed to empowering job seekers with the tools, strategies, and confidence needed to secure their next professional role efficiently. Mark's approach is characterized by empathy, expertise, and an unwavering dedication to helping others achieve their career aspirations.

You can contact him at [email protected] or his LinkedIn Profile