I Dare not Linger - The Great False Reset - Part 1

“I have walked that long road to freedom. I have tried not to falter; I have made missteps along the way. But I have discovered the secret that after climbing a great hill, one only finds that there are many more hills to climb. I have taken a moment here to rest, to steal a view of the glorious vista that surrounds me, to look back on the distance I have come. But I can only rest for a moment, for with freedom come responsibilities, and I dare not linger, for my long walk is not ended.” - Nelson Mandela

I read a great tweet the other day titled "The Psychology of founders who win in downturns" - It was a great, short and simple post that brings together the grieving process and what it means as leaders and founders. However I won't speak to all the content there is a lot there, what really intrigued me was the idea of a "False Reset".

As I sit here Monday morning, the markets are in a Bull... rallying, what could the reasons be? Does it make any sense? Discretionary spending is down 18%, the US jobless rate is closing in on 20% unemployment, no economy has yet recovered from the shut down, no announcement has been made on policy post covid-19 (Outside of intentions on helping businesses re-grow...), the housing market is conservatively estimating a 10% drop in 2020, with others saying at least 20% is more realistic, there is no vaccine, the rapid anti-body testing that was supposed to facilitate our return doesn't work? This is not a vain attempt to spread pessimism, but just facts of what is happening.

Now i'm not a pessimist, anyone who knows me knows that, you don't start a business as a pessimist, but i'm also a rational person, risk is good, when calculated and thoughtful. But it feels like there has been a decoupling from reason, which is dangerous. There are many great insights into this from people far smarter then me, Mohamed El-Erian and Howard Marks to name a few, but in this article I have no intention of advising on the state of affairs.

However a thought did occur, are we in a false reset psychologically decoupled from reality, driven by bias and psychology. We want so desperately to return to the way things were, as if this blip like many before it were nothing to be concerned about, we want to believe our government know exactly what to do... but... the past is not a predictor of the future. We look to the past to tell us about the future, but this is a false logic. It's on every financial disclaimer "past performance is no indicative of future performance".

The truth is our future will be different, it won't be something we've known. Good and bad are relative moral statements and in the context of society, "different" is probably more accurate. On a spectrum it probably won't be an apocalypse of global war and civil unrest, and it definitely won't be business as usual in the global state of play. Either way a different game requires different rules, and until the rules and the landscape is clear, the worst you can do when the game is changing is to play the old game.

So I'd invite us not to linger... don't do it. Our people need their leaders to become comfortable with discomfort. We've climbed one mountain, the curve is flattened in Australia, your business is receiving disaster relief in the form of tax, rental and payroll buffers, but these are temporal, the game hasn't even begun, the old game is just being torn down.

What does it look like not to linger?

1. Learn with pace but also with precision: What does this mean? The mistake is to consume every bit of mass content. I read only 2 publications (NY Times and AFR) and follow a dozen individuals (both Left wing and Right wing) on linkedIN/ Twitter. There is a smorgasbord of content, and without precision you'll disorient yourself. Then make it a daily habit of reading the short listed content through the lens of what simple question: "How does this change the rules for... my family... my team/ organisation... my community... the world?" You won't have answers but it will frame your lens and focus your thinking.
2. Ramp up the pace of your actions and be ok with 80%: The question above will lead to more questions and all you can do is write them down, but if you're not careful you stay in the rabbit hole of inaction. Make a cadence for decisions - perfection will kill you in crisis, the landscape is changing under your feet and you'll need some firm foundations. Once something is 80%, lay that brick and move on. Every informed decision you'll make forms another brick in your new foundation. In an unstable world, your family/ team need firm foundations to both understanding and engaging the new normal.
3. Reassess... with speed: If you're doing step 1, it'll inform step 2 and serve as a tool to re-evaluate. Until the game is defined, the game is changing every day. Don't cling onto decisions from last week, adaptability is king, in this fast changing game the your ability to assess and adjust quickly is important.

All this to say this is not the reset we're looking for, we're still tearing down elements of the old, but as McKinsey put it, as we return there is opportunity to re-imagine the future and lead to some serious reform. I'll digest more on this later this week in part 2: But return is the place for a proper reset, re-imagine is the place of opportunity and innovation, and reform is the new normal. For all of us who dream, is the moment we've been waiting for, the old rules are gone and the change is coming. In this place on macro we have a collective responsibility to to set the narrative of how future generations will speak of us. On micro we have the opportunity to write the story we will tell our grand-children of how we conducted ourselves, make sure it's a story you want to re-tell.