I Asked OpenAI’s Deep Research Who’s Going to Win Super Bowl 2025?
Mitch Jackson
Lawyer and entrepreneur (30+ years) - Breaking political news commentary on Substack ?? mitch-jackson.com/substack (it's free)
I had a wild idea: What if I put OpenAI’s Deep Research to work and asked it the ultimate question—who’s winning Super Bowl 2025? Just for fun. No betting tips here. No legal, financial, or investment advice (because, let’s be real, AI isn’t a fortune teller). Just a curious experiment to see how well Deep Research can analyze the data available as of Friday morning before the big game. Will it nail the prediction? Let’s find out.Super Bowl LIX Prediction: Eagles vs. Chiefs
Who do you think is going to win? Share your prediction in the comments!
Line Movement & Public Betting Trends
The betting market opened with Kansas City as a slight favorite (-1.5 points) over Philadelphia (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post). Early money on the Chiefs (the two-time defending champions) pushed the line briefly to KC -2, but significant buyback on the Eagles soon pulled it back toward a pick’em (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post) (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles). As of mid-week, many books list the Chiefs -1 or even -0.5, with some analysts predicting the Eagles could close as the favorite by kickoff (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post). The point total opened around 49.5 and dipped to 48.5 after sharps hit the under (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post), despite a majority of public bets on the over. In fact, about 80% of bets have been on the Over, likely influenced by both conference championship games flying past their totals and the 73-point shootout these teams had two years ago in Super Bowl LVII (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles). Oddsmakers, however, have held the total just below the key number of 51, respecting the strength of both defenses and a potential for a more methodical pace (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles).
Public vs. Sharp Splits: Betting splits indicate a tug-of-war between public and professional bettors. One data aggregator shows roughly 69% of spread tickets on Philadelphia, but an even larger 81% of the spread money on Philadelphia – a sign of sizeable “sharp” wagers backing the Eagles (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post). At some books, the trend is flipped: Caesars reported 52% of spread bets on the Eagles (public slight lean), yet 51% of spread money on the Chiefs (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post). Overall, sharp bettors appear slightly inclined toward Kansas City, given Patrick Mahomes’ stellar record in close spread games, while the broader public slightly favors the Eagles (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles). Notably, with Mahomes as their starter, the Chiefs are an incredible 29-9-1 against the spread as an underdog or favorite of under a field goal (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles). Mahomes is also 17-3 straight up (14-6 ATS) in his postseason career (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles), which likely attracts sharp money whenever Kansas City is laying a minimal number. On the flip side, bettors remember the Eagles’ dominant 2022 run and near-win in the last Super Bowl, contributing to heavy early action on Philly. All told, the line movement (from KC -1.5 to near pick’em) reflects balanced two-way risk, and we may not see significant further shifts before kickoff (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles).
Moneyline and Handle: The moneyline odds have tightened alongside the spread. After opening around Chiefs -120/Eagles +100, Kansas City’s ML briefly hit -130 before settling back to -115 as Philadelphia money poured in (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post) (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles). Some sportsbooks report the ticket count on the moneyline is roughly split (e.g. 52-53% of ML bets on Philly) but the money handle is slightly heavier on Kansas City (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles). This suggests casual bettors are split or lean Eagles, whereas some larger wagers (perhaps from experienced bettors) have backed the Chiefs. In short, the market views this Super Bowl as close to a true coin flip. It’s one of the tightest Super Bowl spreads in recent memory, and any minor line shifts likely reflect sportsbook risk management (balancing lopsided money) rather than a strong favorite emerging.
Key Injuries & Player Health
Both teams enter the Super Bowl relatively healthy, with most key players expected to suit up. Philadelphia’s roster had more mid-playoff health concerns, but they’ve largely been resolved by game week. Defensive tackle Jalen Carter came down with an illness that spread through the Eagles’ locker room, missing a media session early in the week (Eagles injury update: Jalen Carter upgraded to full participant) (Super Bowl injury report: Two Eagles upgraded to full participants | Reuters). He returned to full practice by Thursday, however, and should anchor the interior D-line as usual. Running back Kenneth Gainwell was in concussion protocol after the NFC Championship but has also been cleared – he progressed from limited to full practice participation by Thursday (Super Bowl injury report: Two Eagles upgraded to full participants | Reuters) (Super Bowl injury report: Two Eagles upgraded to full participants | Reuters). Two offensive playmakers, WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and TE Dallas Goedert (ankle), were limited in practice mid-week (Super Bowl LIX Injury Report | Chiefs vs. Eagles). Neither injury is expected to sideline them, but Smith’s nagging hamstring is something to monitor in terms of explosiveness. Veteran DE Brandon Graham (elbow) had been on injured reserve since a Week 12 triceps tear (Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Injury Report). The Eagles opened his practice window, and he was limited in practice (Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Injury Report) – an indication he might be activated to provide additional pass rush depth in a situational role. Overall, Philadelphia’s star QB Jalen Hurts is not listed on the injury report, and crucial offensive linemen like Lane Johnson (who has played through injuries in past postseasons) and Landon Dickerson are practicing fully (Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Injury Report) (Super Bowl LIX Injury Report | Chiefs vs. Eagles). The only issue lingering for Hurts is a knee brace he’s been wearing since midseason; while not officially listed, he did battle a knee injury earlier this year (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia). By all accounts, Hurts’ mobility in recent games looks adequate and he’s close to 100%.
On the Kansas City side, the injury picture is even cleaner. Patrick Mahomes was listed with an ankle tweak – he sprained it in mid-December – but has practiced in full with no setbacks (Super Bowl injury report: Two Eagles upgraded to full participants | Reuters). Mahomes insists the ankle is fine, and it hasn’t visibly limited him in the playoffs. The Chiefs’ roster had one notable absence: wide receiver Skyy Moore suffered an abdominal injury and spent late-season weeks on IR (Super Bowl LIX Injury Report | Chiefs vs. Eagles). He has been designated to return and practiced in a limited capacity, meaning Kansas City could activate him for the game (Super Bowl injury report: Two Eagles upgraded to full participants | Reuters). However, even if active, Moore would be a depth option given the emergence of other receivers. The Chiefs’ starting lineup is intact; in fact, head coach Andy Reid stated the team has “no injuries” of concern heading into on-field prep (Super Bowl LIX: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles Injury ...). One minor note is a short-term illness: punter Matt Araiza missed Wednesday with a bug but was back to full participation by Thursday (Super Bowl injury report: Two Eagles upgraded to full participants | Reuters). The rest of the Chiefs’ offensive line and defense is healthy. Notably, All-Pro DT Chris Jones, TE Travis Kelce, and LB Nick Bolton – key players who’ve dealt with bumps in the past – are all in peak shape for Sunday.
In summary, neither team faces a catastrophic injury loss, which is somewhat rare this late in the season. The Eagles did have a flu bug run through the team (multiple players reported ill) (Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Injury Report), but it appears to have been contained in time. And while Jalen Hurts’ knee and DeVonta Smith’s hamstring bear watching, expect all major contributors to play. This matchup should largely be decided by strength vs. strength, not backups or replacements. Health is as close to a non-factor as one could hope in a Super Bowl – a boost for both coaching staffs as they can utilize their full playbooks without key limitations.
Coaching & Game Plan Strategy
This game features a fascinating coaching duel between experience and youth. Kansas City’s Andy Reid is already a two-time Super Bowl champion head coach (both with the Chiefs) and will be coaching in his fifth Super Bowl (including one appearance with Philadelphia). Reid is renowned for his creative play designs and exceptional game preparation, especially given two weeks to plan. He has a brilliant offensive mind and a long history of success off bye weeks. In close, high-pressure games, Reid’s experience could be pivotal – he’s seen every situation over his 25-year head coaching career. The Chiefs undeniably have an edge in the coaching department when it comes to big-game experience and adaptability (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). Reid’s clock management has been questioned in the past, but he’s improved in recent years, guiding KC to three straight Super Bowl appearances and consistently making effective second-half adjustments. His familiarity with the Eagles (the franchise he coached for 14 seasons) adds an extra wrinkle; Reid already beat his former team in the Super Bowl two years ago and surely would love to do it again.
Philadelphia’s Nick Sirianni is a young, fiery head coach in his first Super Bowl victory bid (second appearance). He’s known for aggressive decision-making – the Eagles led the NFL in fourth-down conversion attempts in 2022 and continue to lean into analytics-based calls. Sirianni has shown excellent adaptability as well, particularly in tailoring game plans to his opponent. For example, he’s not afraid to pivot to a heavy run script if the situation calls for it, or to dial up deep shots when a defense over-commits to stopping the ground game. One of Sirianni’s challenges will be managing the moment: he’s facing an all-time great coach in Reid, and he’ll need to keep his team focused amid the massive Super Bowl spotlight. The good news for Philly is Sirianni’s staff has playoff experience – many were here for Super Bowl LVII – and they’ve likely learned from that close loss. Sirianni emphasized “eliminating distractions” this week and keeping players locked in on their jobs (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters).
Strategically, expect the Eagles to play to their identity: a physical, run-first approach complemented by selective deep shots. Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson (in reality, Kellen Moore was hired as OC in 2024 per reports (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer), but in either case) will collaborate with Sirianni and renowned O-line coach Jeff Stoutland to script a ground-heavy attack early. Philadelphia has been one of the most run-heavy teams on early downs (second-highest early-down run rate in the NFL) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). This serves two purposes: wear down defenses with their dominant offensive line and keep the opposing offense (Mahomes) off the field. Sirianni will stick with the run as long as it’s effective, but he’s also proven willing to adjust; if Kansas City stacks the box, he’ll trust Jalen Hurts to make throws against one-on-one coverage outside. Defensively, Eagles coordinator Vic Fangio (brought in to elevate the defense) is likely to rely on a four-man pass rush and zone coverage schemes, as is his hallmark (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). Philadelphia ranked first in defensive success rate playing zone (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer), and Fangio’s philosophy is to limit big plays and make an offense earn every yard. However, Fangio is an old-school coach who will send occasional blitzes if the front four isn’t getting home (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). The key will be picking those spots wisely, as Mahomes historically shreds extra rushers.
On the Chiefs’ side, Andy Reid and OC Eric Bieniemy (with Mahomes) will have a few wrinkles ready. Reid is a master of exploiting opponent tendencies – for example, in the previous Super Bowl meeting, he used motion and misdirection to confuse the Eagles’ coverage, resulting in two wide-open touchdown passes. We could see something similar to counter the Eagles’ zone looks and aggressive pass rush. Don’t be surprised if the Chiefs script some quick screens, jet sweeps, and creative gadget plays early (perhaps involving rookie WR Xavier Worthy on end-arounds or even a trick play) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). Kansas City knows Philadelphia’s front is ferocious; thus, we anticipate Reid will lean on the short passing game (quick outs, slants, screens) as an extension of the run and to neutralize the pass rush. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, meanwhile, has a reputation for shining in big games. Spagnuolo has won three Super Bowls as a DC (2007 Giants, 2019 and 2022 Chiefs) and is known for his aggressive, blitz-heavy approach and ability to confuse quarterbacks. He’s likely cooking up blitz packages to test Jalen Hurts’ recognition. During the regular season, Spags dialed up some of the highest blitz rates in the league and he won’t shy away now – especially noting that Hurts had the highest sack rate when blitzed (13.2%) of any QB in the NFL (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). The flip side is Spagnuolo must also account for Hurts’ running ability; expect Kansas City to sometimes use a spy or mix coverages post-snap to make Hurts hesitate.
In-game adjustments will be pivotal. Reid is lauded for his scripted first 15 plays, but equally important will be second-half changes. In their last Super Bowl meeting, Kansas City went into halftime trailing by 10, then outscored Philly 24-11 in the second half by changing protections and attacking different areas of the field. Sirianni and his staff will need to counterpunch quickly if the Chiefs shift tactics. A particular chess match to watch is on fourth downs: Sirianni’s Eagles are likely to attempt marginal fourth-and-short situations, using their nearly unstoppable QB sneak (“tush push”) formation to convert (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). Reid, traditionally more conservative on fourth downs, might need to match that aggression if possessions are at a premium. Special teams could factor into coaching decisions as well – e.g. if a long field goal is risky (Eagles’ kicker Jake Elliott is indoors, so range is not a big issue; Chiefs’ Harrison Butker has a strong leg too). Both coaches will weigh when to steal a possession or take a calculated gamble. Ultimately, Andy Reid’s veteran savvy vs. Nick Sirianni’s bold innovation forms a compelling narrative. Reid gets the nod for the coaching advantage due to his résumé (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com), but Sirianni’s no slouch – his ability to galvanize his team (and scheme to their strengths) is a big reason the Eagles are back on this stage.
Quarterback Performance Under Pressure
Both starting quarterbacks have proven they can perform under the brightest lights, but each faces unique challenges in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes is the NFL’s premier quarterback and has built a Hall of Fame resume in just seven seasons. In pressure situations – whether a late comeback or evading a fierce pass rush – Mahomes has been exceptional. He’s 2-1 in Super Bowls so far (with the lone loss coming when his offensive line collapsed against Tampa Bay), and he already boasts three Super Bowl MVP awards to his name (Super Bowl 59: Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs embracing role as 'villains' in pursuit of three-peat history | NFL News | Sky Sports). Mahomes’ playoff track record is sterling: 17-3 career record, as noted, and he’s engineered five fourth-quarter comeback wins in the postseason. His “clutch gene” is essentially unquestioned at this point. If the game is tight late, Kansas City trusts Mahomes completely – and with good reason. One quietly concerning stat, however, is that Mahomes took 36 sacks this season (a career high) and has been sacked 5 more times in these playoffs (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia). Protection “under pressure” in the literal sense has been shaky at times. The Chiefs shuffled their offensive line, even benching three different left tackles before sliding All-Pro guard Joe Thuney to left tackle to stabilize things mid-season (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia). Mahomes can usually mitigate pass rush with pocket movement and quick releases, but if the Eagles generate interior pressure that he can’t escape, it could disrupt the Chiefs’ rhythm. Still, against blitzes and big moments, Mahomes tends to elevate – he produced the 8th-highest success rate in the NFL when blitzed this year (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). His decision-making has also matured: he posted a 67.6 Total QBR (second-best of his career) despite the heavy pressure, largely by avoiding the kind of risky throws that plagued him in 2021 (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia). Under playoff pressure, Mahomes has been efficient and careful – this postseason he has 6 TDs, 0 INTs, and hasn’t fumbled. We know the stage will not faze him; if anything, he embraces it. The question will be whether he can consistently solve the elite Philadelphia defense in front of him (more on that in the matchup section). Keep an eye on Mahomes’ mobility as well – two years ago, even on a sprained ankle, he scrambled for a crucial 26-yard run in the Super Bowl. With his ankle closer to full strength now (Super Bowl injury report: Two Eagles upgraded to full participants | Reuters), he’ll use his legs if needed to make plays under duress.
Jalen Hurts, on the other side, is quickly establishing himself as one of the NFL’s top young quarterbacks and a proven winner under pressure. Hurts is 25-2 in his last 27 starts (including playoffs) in games he’s finished, an astounding run dating back to 2022. In fact, the Eagles have not lost a game that Hurts started and finished healthy since Week 4 of this season (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). He’s shown poise in big moments – for example, Hurts orchestrated multiple second-half comebacks and OT wins during the 2023 season (vs. teams like Buffalo and Dallas). In Super Bowl LVII, Hurts delivered a brilliant performance (304 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, 4 total TDs) and was arguably the best player on the field (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). That game ended in a loss, but it proved Hurts can shine on the grand stage. Fast forward to now: he’s even more seasoned and motivated. Hurts has been extremely efficient this postseason, with 7 total touchdowns (4 pass, 3 rush) and 0 interceptions through three playoff games (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters). Perhaps most impressive is his ball security and calm decision-making since a mid-season hiccup. Early in the year, Hurts threw a few interceptions and fumbled more than he’d like, but after the Eagles’ Week 5 bye he dramatically cut down on turnovers (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia). He’s thrown just 3 interceptions since Week 5 (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia), often opting for a safe throw-away instead of forcing something. This “take care of the ball” mindset might make the passing offense less explosive at times, but it’s a mature approach for a young QB on a team with a great defense and run game. One area of concern for Hurts is handling pass rush pressure and complex blitz looks. As noted, when blitzed this season, Hurts took a sack a league-high 13.2% of the time (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). He sometimes holds the ball trying to extend plays, which can lead to negative plays against a fast defense. In a regular-season rematch against KC last year, Hurts was sacked 5 times and struggled (just 124 net passing yards) as the Chiefs mixed coverages and pressure (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). That said, Hurts has a knack for responding to adversity – after that subpar outing, he rebounded later in the season with improved blitz recognition and quicker decisions. And if the protection holds up, Hurts can absolutely dice up man coverage and zone alike with his arm; he’s blessed with a strong, accurate deep ball and will give his receivers chances on 50/50 balls. One more element of Hurts under pressure: his legs. Hurts is effectively a power runner in high-leverage situations – on third or fourth-and-short, the Eagles rely on the QB sneak or Hurts on a zone-read keeper to convert. In the red zone, Hurts is lethal; he has 28 rushing TDs over the past two regular seasons, often bulldozing in behind his line. This gives Hurts an edge when “pressure” means a critical down – he doesn’t have to throw it; he can run it. Overall, while Hurts lacks the lengthy playoff résumé of Mahomes, he’s shown every indicator of a clutch performer. His challenge will be continuing to balance aggression and caution: he can’t afford drive-killing sacks or fumbles (recall the costly fumble return TD he gave up in the last Super Bowl (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer)), but he also must hit some big plays when opportunities arise. If Hurts can play a clean, composed game and use his dual-threat abilities wisely, the Eagles will be in excellent shape.
Matchup Advantages: Offense vs. Defense
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
This is a classic strength-on-strength battle: Kansas City’s high-powered offense against Philadelphia’s elite defense. However, the character of KC’s offense has evolved – it’s less about deep bombs now and more about efficiency and yards after catch. Patrick Mahomes will face an Eagles defense that ranked #1 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value) this season (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview), a unit that improved dramatically as the year progressed. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s scheme emphasizes limiting big plays and rallying to tackle underneath throws. Notably, the Eagles excel at stopping the short passing game, which is exactly where the Chiefs like to live. Mahomes led the league in using short passes; about 58% of KC’s receiving yards came after the catch, the highest rate in the NFL (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia). Yet Philadelphia allowed the fewest yards after catch and was the #1 ranked defense against short passes (under 10 air yards) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). They have rangy linebackers and sure-tackling defensive backs (rookie S Cooper DeJean and LB Zack Baun have stood out blowing up screens and flats passes (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer)). This suggests that the quick screens and dump-offs Kansas City often uses might not be as effective against Philly’s speed and discipline.
Because of this, the Chiefs may need to push the ball to the intermediate level (10-20 yards), where Mahomes is still very good and the Eagles’ zone can sometimes be softer. Mahomes’ EPA (Expected Points Added) per play on intermediate throws ranked 10th in the league, and the Eagles’ defense ranked around 15th defending that area (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). We could see Mahomes attack the seams or intermediate crossers, especially utilizing TE Travis Kelce. Kelce is the ultimate zone-buster – he amassed 616 receiving yards against zone coverage this year, the most on the Chiefs (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). Philadelphia knows Kelce is the priority; they’ll mix bracket coverage and have a defender on high alert to plaster Kelce in zones, but stopping him is easier said than done. Look for Kelce to be Mahomes’ security blanket whenever Philly drops seven into coverage. On the flip side, the deep passing game might remain limited for Kansas City. Strikingly, Mahomes’ efficiency on deep throws (20+ yards) was way down this season – he ranked 34th in EPA on deep attempts (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). Whether due to missing Tyreek Hill, or younger WRs not gaining separation, the Chiefs simply haven’t connected on many long bombs. That’s unlikely to magically change against an Eagles defense ranked 2nd against deep passes (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer), featuring savvy veteran CB Darius Slay and emerging CB James Bradberry (plus those ball-hawking rookie DBs). Unless a coverage bust happens, Kansas City might not hit any huge 50-yard touchdowns; they’ll need to methodically drive the field.
One big question: Can the Chiefs run the ball at all to keep the Eagles honest? On paper, this looks like a mismatch. Philadelphia’s run defense was the best in the NFL by DVOA, #1 against the run (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview), allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. Their front, led by DTs Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis (and anchored by veterans Fletcher Cox and Milton Williams in rotation), is massive and athletic. In contrast, Kansas City’s run game has been middling (ranked 9th in rush DVOA, but that’s partly inflated by occasional big games against weaker defenses) (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview). Primary RB Isiah Pacheco runs hard but had a modest 4.0 YPC this year, and mid-season addition Kareem Hunt is more of a short-yardage back at this stage. The Eagles can likely control inside runs with their front four, freeing the linebackers to focus on Kelce and the short passing lanes. As a result, it wouldn’t be surprising if Andy Reid mostly abandons a traditional run game early (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). The Chiefs may attempt a few inside zones or draw plays just to keep Philly honest, but if those go nowhere (as expected), Reid will shift to using extended handoffs – i.e. short passes that function like runs. We might see jet sweeps or end-arounds to someone like speedy WR Xavier Worthy to test the flanks (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer), or even an occasional Mahomes scramble or draw (Mahomes isn’t a big designed-run QB, but he can pick spots to run if the Eagles drop deep in coverage) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). Overall, however, Kansas City’s offense will likely be one-dimensional (pass-heavy) by necessity. The Chiefs offense had about 63% pass play selection in neutral situations, one of the highest in the league, and that may spike in this game given Philly’s stout front. The Chiefs did have success in past matchups using Jerick McKinnon (RB) on swing passes and screens, but McKinnon is out this year – they’ll try to replicate that with Pacheco or Hunt leaking out of the backfield.
A crucial element will be pass protection for Mahomes. The Eagles led the NFL in sacks (70) in 2022 and while that pace dipped in 2024, they still possess a fierce pass rush. Edge rushers Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat can wreak havoc, especially if Kansas City’s tackle situation is shaky. The Chiefs’ offensive line interior is excellent (C Creed Humphrey, G Trey Smith, G/now LT Joe Thuney are all Pro Bowl/All-Pro caliber (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com)). However, their tackles have been a revolving door. After trials with Donovan Smith and others at left tackle failed, moving Thuney outside helped – but that means a backup guard is inserted, potentially weakening two spots (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia). Meanwhile, RT Jawaan Taylor is solid in pass pro (despite some penalty issues earlier in the year) and appears healthy from a late-season knee tweak (Super Bowl LIX Injury Report | Chiefs vs. Eagles). If Thuney is at LT, he’ll be facing Josh Sweat or Reddick frequently. The Eagles may try to isolate that matchup, perhaps flipping Reddick to rush over the left side. On the other end, veteran Brandon Graham (if active) and young LB Nolan Smith can rotate in to keep pressure fresh. Philly’s pressure rate was surprisingly low in the regular season (28th in pressure %, last in hurry %) (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com), but that is a bit misleading – Fangio’s scheme emphasizes containing QBs and not over-pursuing, and the Eagles often only rush four. When you have guys like Reddick (16 sacks last year) and Carter pushing the pocket, you can still disrupt the QB without gaudy blitz numbers. The Chiefs allowed some of the highest pressure on Mahomes in his career this season (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia), so this matchup is worrisome for KC. The key will be Mahomes’ escapability and Reid dialing up quick-game passes. If Philadelphia can generate pressure with four and sit back in zone (which they did successfully to many opponents), they can limit Mahomes’s magic. Keep an eye on third downs: The Chiefs thrive on extending drives, but the Eagles’ third-down defense is top-notch when they unleash their rush and tight coverage.
In sum, when KC has the ball, look for a chess match. Kansas City will try to spread the Eagles out and throw quickly – lots of short crossers, screen passes, and option routes to Kelce. The Eagles will tackle well and force the Chiefs into third-and-long, where they can crank up the pass rush. Mahomes will get his plays – he’s too good not to – but Philadelphia’s defense actually matches up well with KC’s tendencies. The stat to note: Philadelphia’s defense was better (ranked higher) than Kansas City’s offense in both passing and rushing categories this year (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview). It’s rare to say that about a Mahomes-led unit, but the Eagles D is legitimately that strong. If Kansas City wants to break through, they might need to scheme something unconventional (perhaps a trick play, or involve an unexpected target like WR Kadarius Toney or Marquez Valdes-Scantling on a gadget). Turnovers will also be crucial – the Chiefs have protected the ball well so far, but the Eagles led the league in takeaways. A strip-sack or tipped-pass interception could swing a possession. On the flip side, if Mahomes can buy time against the rush, some of KC’s young receivers (rookie WR Rashee Rice, Worthy, or Skyy Moore if active) will have chances in scramble drills. Mahomes is lethal when he extends plays outside the pocket and receivers break off routes. The Eagles will aim to keep Mahomes corralled, but that’s easier said than done. Ultimately, expect the Chiefs to move the ball in spurts but perhaps settle for a few field goals if drives stall once space tightens. Scoring in the red zone against this Eagles defense (which was top-5 in red zone TD% allowed) will be a major test for Kansas City’s offense.
When the Eagles Have the Ball
Philadelphia’s offense is built to impose its will physically and then strike through the air once you adjust – a true pick-your-poison dilemma. The Eagles’ biggest advantage comes in the run game. Behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive line, Philadelphia led the league in rushing EPA and was ranked #3 in rush offense DVOA (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview). They have a dynamic new weapon this year: RB Saquon Barkley has transformed an already potent ground attack into something borderline unstoppable. Barkley ran for 2,005 yards in the regular season and has added 442 rushing yards in the postseason (over just three games) (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters) (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters). His blend of power and big-play ability behind this mauling O-line is a nightmare for defenses. To put it in perspective, Barkley has six runs of 50+ yards this season, the most of any player in 2024 and the second-most in the last 25 years (only Adrian Peterson ever had more in one season) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). The Eagles will feed Barkley early and often. They run the ball on first and second down at the second-highest rate in the NFL (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer), using a variety of concepts – inside zone, outside zone, counter, QB zone-read keepers, RPOs – tailored to exploit an opponent’s weaknesses. Run game coordinator Jeff Stoutland (also the OL coach) is a genius at adjusting the blocking scheme week to week (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). Notably, in their last two meetings against Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs defense (the 2022 regular season and Super Bowl LVII), the Eagles’ run game was tremendously effective, posting success rates in the 88th–90th percentile (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer) even with more modest backs. Now with Barkley, that efficiency could be even higher. The Chiefs’ defense was solid against the run (ranked 8th in run DVOA) (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview) and particularly good at limiting huge runs (5th-best at preventing explosive runs) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). They’ll need every bit of that discipline because one crease is all Barkley needs – Kansas City must tackle flawlessly. Expect KC to sometimes add an extra defender in the box (strong safety Bryan Cook or a third linebacker) to try to plug running lanes. But that comes at a cost: as one analyst noted, if Barkley breaks through that first line of defense when the box is stacked, “it’s over” – meaning he’s likely gone for a long touchdown (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). Conversely, if the Chiefs play with two high safeties to guard against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles will happily hand off and grind out 6-8 yards a pop behind this line (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer).
A key matchup in the trenches will be Eagles’ interior line vs. Chiefs’ defensive front. Philadelphia boasts All-Pro center Jason Kelce, All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson, Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Mailata, and Pro Bowl-caliber guards Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens (Jurgens filled in at center in the NFC title game due to a back issue but is fine now, while Dickerson is healthy after a knee tweak) (Chiefs vs. Eagles Super Bowl LIX Injury Report) (Super Bowl LIX Injury Report | Chiefs vs. Eagles). This unit is cohesive and battle-tested. Kansas City counters with All-Pro DT Chris Jones, who is a game-wrecker inside. Jones had 15+ sacks in the regular season and is the anchor of KC’s run defense. He’ll line up across from Kelce/Dickerson often, a clash of titans. If Jones can shoot gaps and disrupt Barkley in the backfield a few times, it might put Philly behind the chains. But if the Eagles can double-team Jones or option him off with RPO reads, Barkley could consistently reach the second level. KC also has stout DT Derrick Nnadi and LB Nick Bolton (one of the league’s top run-stopping linebackers) to help plug gaps. Still, Philadelphia’s run game has the edge – they averaged 148 rush yards per game, and it’s not uncommon to see the Eagles rack up 200+ when they’re rolling. Don’t forget Jalen Hurts is a part of this run threat too. On designed QB runs (like power sweeps or draw reads) and scrambles, Hurts can exploit man coverage (if DBs turn their backs). His mobility looked better in the NFC Championship, indicating the knee issue isn’t hampering him much. The Chiefs will have to account for Hurts on the ground, particularly in short-yardage where the QB sneak “tush push” behind that O-line is nearly automatic for 1-2 yards.
If and when Kansas City commits extra resources to stop the run, Philadelphia’s passing attack can capitalize. The Eagles’ pass offense was somewhat middle-of-the-pack statistically this year (#14 in DVOA) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer), in part because of Hurts’ mid-season slump and conservative stretch. But make no mistake: this passing game can be lethal. WR A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith form one of the best duos in the NFL. Brown is a matchup nightmare with his size and run-after-catch ability, and Smith is a precise route-runner with great body control. The Chiefs’ secondary plays a ton of man coverage (Spagnuolo’s style), about as high a rate as anyone. That could be dangerous for Kansas City. With defenders creeping up to stop the run, Brown and Smith often find themselves in one-on-one situations outside (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). Hurts has shown he will take shots downfield if he gets single coverage. Brown, in particular, thrives on deep posts and go routes when he’s isolated. In last year’s Super Bowl, Brown had a 45-yard contested touchdown catch on a go route versus one-on-one coverage. If the Chiefs leave CB Trent McDuffie or L’Jarius Sneed on an island without safety help, expect Hurts to test them deep. One concern for Philly: Hurts has been cautious and sometimes hesitant to pull the trigger on deep throws this season (to avoid turnovers) (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). But with the extra preparation time, the Eagles likely scripted some shot plays – perhaps off play-action after establishing the run. Also, watch for WR3 Quez Watkins on a potential deep attempt; he’s a speedster who could be forgotten by the defense focusing on Brown and Smith.
Kansas City’s pass defense has been quite good overall. They ranked 7th against the pass by DVOA (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview), and their young secondary has grown up fast. CB Trent McDuffie has become a versatile star (often covering slot receivers or tight ends and blitzing frequently), and CB L’Jarius Sneed is a physical press corner outside. Still, the Chiefs haven’t faced a tandem quite like Brown/Smith often, and both Eagles wideouts are finally healthy together now. One matchup to exploit might be Eagles TE Dallas Goedert against the Chiefs’ linebackers or safeties. KC’s pass D is a bit weaker in the intermediate middle, and Hurts loves to find Goedert on play-action crossers or tight end screens. If Kansas City sells out to double the outside receivers, Goedert can work underneath.
A significant factor will be protection and pass rush when Hurts drops back. The Eagles allowed relatively few sacks in 2024, thanks to that stout O-line and Hurts’ elusiveness. But the Chiefs can bring heat. As mentioned, DC Steve Spagnuolo is known for creative blitzes – and he’s not afraid to send defensive backs. Kansas City was 5th in pressure rate (26.1%) and 6th in hurry rate (9.0%) during the season (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com), indicating they can affect the QB. The bulk of that pressure comes from All-Pro Chris Jones inside and emerging DE George Karlaftis on the edge. Karlaftis, along with FA pickup Charles Omenihu and first-round rookie Felix Anudike-Uzomah, form a rotation that tries to collapse the pocket around the tackles. However, they face a daunting task: Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailata are among the best tackle duos at shutting down edge rushers. If Johnson (who has battled through injuries valiantly in past playoffs) is truly at full strength, he can neutralize Karlaftis one-on-one. The Chiefs might have more luck with pressure up the middle – blitzing a linebacker like Drue Tranquill or Willie Gay Jr. in the A-gaps to stress the interior communication. The Eagles did have a hiccup in the NFC Championship where backup center Cam Jurgens had to fill in; a botched protection led to a free rusher. But with Kelce and the starting five intact now, Philly is typically excellent at sorting out blitz pickup. Hurts’ job will be to identify where the rush is coming from pre-snap and hit his hot reads when needed. Spagnuolo will try to confuse Hurts with disguised coverages and late blitzes, hoping to make him hold the ball. If Hurts holds it too long, Chiefs pass rushers can get home and possibly force fumbles – Hurts has had some strip-sack issues when he’s indecisive in the pocket (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer).
One more subtle aspect: Hurts vs. zone coverage. Kansas City actually mixes in a fair bit of zone, and they might lean on it more if man coverage isn’t holding up. Earlier this season, Hurts had some struggles against zone looks, sometimes hesitating or checking down quickly. But later in the year, the Eagles offense incorporated more RPOs and quick reads to get Hurts comfortable (Super Bowl LIX Cheat Sheet: 25 Things to Know About Chiefs Vs. Eagles - The Ringer). In the NFC title game, we saw a more decisive Hurts firing slants and quick outs to keep drives on schedule. If the Chiefs sit back in Cover-2 or Cover-3 zones, expect the Eagles to use run-pass option (RPO) plays – where Hurts can hand to Barkley if a linebacker drops, or pull and throw a quick slant to A.J. Brown if the backers bite on the run. Those plays can be extremely tough to defend if executed well, because the Eagles’ run threat is so credible.
Overall, the Eagles offense has an edge on paper against the Chiefs defense. Philadelphia averaged 27.2 points per game (7th in NFL) (By The Numbers: How far are Seattle Seahawks from Chiefs, Eagles?) and can beat you in multiple ways. Kansas City allowed only 19.5 points per game in the regular season (a top-5 scoring defense), but they also hadn’t seen an offense as balanced as Philly’s often. The Chiefs did struggle at times against strong offenses: for example, they gave up 31 to Buffalo and 28 to Cincinnati during the year, and even in the playoffs the Houston Texans scored 23 on them (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). The Eagles will look to replicate that success. If Philadelphia can avoid turnovers and penalties, they have the ability to control the tempo – long, run-heavy drives that wear out KC’s defense. The long drives also keep Mahomes on the sideline, which is a defensive strategy in itself. The Eagles led the NFL in time of possession (32:22 per game) (Chiefs-Eagles: Super Bowl LIX predictions, picks, odds - 6abc Philadelphia), a stat they’d love to see play out in this game. On the flip side, Kansas City’s best chance on defense is to create negative plays: a sack, a run stuff for loss, or a turnover to put Philadelphia behind schedule. Spagnuolo might gamble with a big blitz to try to force a mistake from Hurts. But if those gambles don’t land, the Eagles could end up gashing the Chiefs for big gains.
One more note: Red zone execution. The Eagles were among the best in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns, thanks largely to their power run game and Hurts’ dual-threat. The Chiefs’ red-zone defense was middle of the pack. If Philadelphia consistently finishes drives with touchdowns instead of field goals, Kansas City will be under huge pressure to keep up. Conversely, if KC can force a field goal or two (perhaps via a sack or great coverage in tight space), that could be a win that keeps the game within reach.
All told, when Philadelphia has the ball, they’ll aim to dictate the game’s flow. The matchup of Philly’s offense (ranked 10th DVOA) vs KC’s defense (ranked 5th DVOA) (Super Bowl LIX: DVOA Preview) is strength vs strength in some respects, but the presence of Barkley behind that offensive line might tilt the scales. As theScore’s analysis put it, the Chiefs “don’t have the defensive personnel to stop the Eagles’ offense” if Philly executes to its standard (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). Kansas City will need some inspired play (perhaps a big game from Chris Jones or a takeaway by their secondary) to slow down this unit. Otherwise, the Eagles could grind down the Chiefs just like they did to the 49ers and Commanders in the NFC playoffs (scoring 31 and 55 points in those games respectively).
Turnover Margin & Ball Security
Turnovers are often the X-factor in tightly matched games, and both teams emphasize ball security. During the regular season, Philadelphia had a +11 turnover differential, among the league’s best (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). The Chiefs were +6, solid but not extraordinary (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). In the playoffs, this disparity has grown: the Eagles have forced 10 turnovers (an incredible number in three games) and themselves have not given the ball away yet (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). The Chiefs, meanwhile, have 0 takeaways in two playoff games and also have not turned it over offensively (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). That means neither offense has committed a giveaway in the postseason – a testament to Mahomes’ and Hurts’ decision-making and ball handling. It’s unlikely that trend continues for both; the pressure and quality of defenses in the Super Bowl could finally crack someone. Historically, winning the turnover battle is huge: teams that win the turnover battle are 38-7 in Super Bowls (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). Both coaching staffs will stress avoiding mistakes.
On paper, the Eagles defense is more likely to generate a takeaway. They led the NFL in takeaways during the season and feature playmakers at every level: CB Darius Slay and S Kevin Byard have a knack for interceptions, and the pass rush’s strip-sack ability is well-known. In Super Bowl LVII, the only turnover was Hurts’ fumble that the Chiefs returned for a touchdown – a massive swing in a 3-point game. Philadelphia surely hasn’t forgotten that and will prioritize ball security. Jalen Hurts typically does a good job protecting the ball when running (strong grip, rarely fumbles on hits), but as mentioned he did have that one slip. The Chiefs will try to punch at the ball when Hurts is in traffic and will be eyeing any chance for a strip on Barkley, who can sometimes fight for extra yards and expose the ball. Barkley fumbled just once all season, however, and has been reliable. Kansas City’s defense, while opportunistic in past years, didn’t record a single takeaway in the AFC Championship or Divisional round. Some of that is luck (dropped potential INTs, etc.), but it also reflects that they faced careful QBs. If they can’t pry the ball from the Eagles, it’s hard to imagine them winning without any takeaways, given the Eagles’ overall advantages elsewhere.
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Conversely, Kansas City is generally careful too. Mahomes has only 2 interceptions in his Super Bowl appearances (both in the loss to Tampa Bay when he was under siege). This season he threw a few more INTs than usual (12) but many were early-season and on tipped passes. In the playoffs so far, he’s been clean. Philadelphia will hope to pressure him into a mistake – perhaps disguise a coverage to fool him into an interception, or get a strip-sack from the blind side. Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham have all shown the ability to tomahawk the ball out on sacks. One wild card: Chiefs receivers had issues with drops and tipped balls during the season, some leading to INTs. If a pass glances off a receiver’s hands, the Eagles secondary will be looking to capitalize. Turnovers on special teams (muffed punts, etc.) seem less likely as both teams have solid returners and specialists, but it’s always a possibility in a high-pressure game.
It’s worth noting the psychological side of turnovers: whoever blinks first might pay dearly. Hurts and Mahomes will both likely play a bit conservatively early rather than risk a big mistake. That could mean throwing the ball away under pressure instead of forcing it. Hurts in particular has shown he’ll take a sack or throw out of bounds rather than throw into coverage (sometimes frustrating fans by not giving his receiver a chance, but it’s part of why Philly’s turnovers are low). This game could hinge on a single turnover swing. If, for example, the Eagles manage an interception and short field, that could be the difference in a one-score contest. Likewise, if the Chiefs can strip-sack Hurts or force a rare Barkley fumble, it might set up Mahomes with a bonus possession.
In summary, the Eagles have a slight edge in the turnover department on paper – their defense has shown a greater propensity for takeaways. Philadelphia’s +11 margin vs. KC’s +6 reflects that over the long haul of the season, Philly was better at both stealing possessions and avoiding giveaways (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). But each team has immense respect for the other’s ability to capitalize on mistakes. Don’t be surprised if both offenses initially call plays designed to minimize risk (runs, screens, high-percentage throws) until they get a feel for the game flow. The first turnover, if and when it happens, will be a huge momentum moment. This being a dome game (no weather issues) and with experienced QBs, we may not see many turnovers at all – but even zero turnovers would probably favor the Eagles, who thrive on long drives and field position. The Chiefs likely need to steal a possession or two to tilt the odds back in their favor, given Philly’s advantages elsewhere.
Historical Trends & Situational Angles
Several historical trends and situational stats could come into play:
In conclusion, the situational angles give a slight narrative edge to Kansas City (experience, clutch close-game record, Reid’s bye record), whereas historical statistical trends (outrushing, turnover margin) favor Philadelphia if they play their style of game. Both teams are aware of these factors – the Eagles know they need to run the ball and take care of it (which history validates), and the Chiefs know if it’s close late, they have confidence in their proven formula. Super Bowl history also shows that rematches and dynastic attempts create tremendous drama; the motivation for each side is through the roof.
Weather & Stadium Conditions
Weather will not be a factor in Super Bowl LIX, as the game is being played indoors at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans (Super Bowl LIX: Betting Report - National Football Post). The teams will enjoy climate-controlled conditions – around 70°F, no wind, no rain – essentially perfect environment for football. This means we should see each offense able to operate at full efficiency with no external hindrances. A fast indoor turf could benefit skill players with speed and quick cutting ability. For instance, Kansas City’s quick receivers and Philadelphia’s shifty running by Barkley may be even more effective on the Superdome’s surface. Conversely, pass rushers can sometimes get better traction on turf for takeoff, but the Superdome has modern turf that most players are used to.
One thing to consider is the kicking game: Both kickers (Eagles’ Jake Elliott and Chiefs’ Harrison Butker) are used to some cold/windy conditions outdoors, so kicking indoors should be easier for them. The Superdome has hosted many big games, and long field goals are common there due to no wind. We could see confident attempts from 55+ yards if needed.
The crowd noise should be moderate and split. Super Bowls typically have a fairly neutral crowd composition (a lot of corporate and neutral fans), though New Orleans is closer to Kansas City geographically than Philadelphia. Regardless, both teams are used to playing in loud environments. The dome can get loud on third downs, but each offense has silent count mechanisms. The Eagles in particular excel on silent counts due to their experience in hostile stadiums; center Jason Kelce’s timing with Hurts on the snap count is excellent. The Chiefs’ offensive line also is disciplined with Mahomes’ cadence. So noise likely won’t create many false start issues – at least not beyond maybe one early game jitters penalty.
A notable point: Two years ago in the Super Bowl, the field (grass in Arizona) was very slippery and caused players to lose footing. This year, on artificial turf, footing should be consistent. That likely helps pass rushers and anyone making sharp cuts, as they won’t fear slipping. Players did express preference for grass due to injury concerns on turf, but one game likely won’t have injury variance. Both teams played multiple games on turf this year without issue.
Lastly, no weather means no randomness from wind or rain – so the better team execution-wise should win out. There won’t be a lucky wind-aided field goal miss or a rain-caused fumble. It’s a clean setting to determine a champion, which is fitting given these are arguably the two best rosters in football.
In summary, expect a fast, clean track and no external excuses. The Superdome has been the site of some high-scoring Super Bowls in the past (such as when the Saints won SB XLIV, or the shootout in SB XII back in the day), so if anything, conditions favor offense and scoring. Each team’s speed and game plan can be fully unleashed without Mother Nature in the way.
Prop Bets & Market Inefficiencies
The Super Bowl prop bet menu is enormous, but a few player props and angles stand out as potential values or mismatches given the analysis:
In summary, look for props where perception and reality might differ. Hurts’ dual-threat nature and Barkley’s dominance might still be slightly undervalued by lines that haven’t fully caught up to how Sirianni leans on them. Conversely, Chiefs wideouts not named Kelce might be undervalued due to lack of household name status – someone like Worthy or Rice could cash an over on a modest line. And remember, the Super Bowl often sees unexpected heroes (last year, Eagles fans recall Toney’s big punt return and rookie Skyy Moore catching a TD – neither were stars). Sprinkling on a lesser-known player to score a TD (for example, Eagles’ WR Quez Watkins or Chiefs’ WR Justin Watson) can yield big odds. Just be mindful of the game script we’ve analyzed: it points to Philly trying to control things on the ground and KC trying to use short passes – so align props with that narrative (like Hurts rushing TD, Barkley yards, Kelce catches, etc.). Always shop around for the best numbers, and don’t be afraid of unders on inflated lines. The Super Bowl hype can push certain overs too high, creating value on the opposite side.
Psychological & Media Narrative Factors
The mental and narrative side of this matchup is rich. For the Philadelphia Eagles, this game represents redemption and unfinished business. They suffered an agonizing 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII, blowing a late lead, and that memory has fueled them for two years (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters) (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters). Several Eagles players, led by Jalen Hurts, have openly said that loss “lit a fire” in them (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters). There’s a sense of destiny or mission in the Eagles’ locker room – to rewrite the ending and get revenge on the team that denied them. This can be a powerful motivator, as long as it’s channeled positively and not as pressure. So far, Hurts has handled it perfectly: he’s stayed calm and focused, emphasizing one play at a time. The Eagles also have the chip of being underdogs (albeit slight) to the reigning champs. They’ve embraced a “no one believes we can do it” mentality, even if in reality plenty believe they can. That underdog mentality served the franchise well in their Super Bowl run five years ago, and it’s creeping back in their messaging.
On the other side, the Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with the burden and confidence of being a modern dynasty. Having won the last two titles, there’s a narrative of Chiefs fatigue in the media – some fans have cast them as the new Patriots-like villain simply because they keep winning. Interestingly, the Chiefs players have somewhat embraced that narrative. Patrick Mahomes said, “If winning football games makes you a villain, we’ll keep being the villain” (Super Bowl 59: Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs embracing ...). That shows the Chiefs are fine being the NFL’s new bad guys; it actually might fuel them to prove any doubters wrong about their continued hunger. Internally, though, Mahomes and teammates are very grounded. Mahomes has been vocal that he cares more about the team’s legacy than his personal legacy (Super Bowl 59: Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs embracing role as 'villains' in pursuit of three-peat history | NFL News | Sky Sports). This signals a unified mindset: they want to be remembered as one of the great teams of all time, and a three-peat would certainly do that. There’s always a risk of complacency after so much success, but with history on the line, complacency shouldn’t be an issue. If anything, Kansas City feels pressure to not let a dynasty opportunity slip. That pressure can either tighten them up or spur them on. Andy Reid’s relaxed, jovial style (cracking jokes about cheeseburgers, etc.) and Mahomes’ easygoing yet competitive demeanor help keep the team loose.
Media narratives have also harped on the Andy Reid vs. Eagles storyline again, though it’s less raw now than it was in 2023. Still, it’s notable: Reid could further cement his Hall of Fame legacy by beating his former team again. The Eagles players downplay this (“it’s not about Andy vs us, it’s team vs team”), but you can bet Philadelphia’s fans and even some players use it for motivation – they don’t want the old coach who never got them a ring to beat them twice for rings of his own. Meanwhile, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni was actually fired from the Chiefs staff years ago when Reid arrived (a fact that was a big story in the last Super Bowl). Sirianni insisted he doesn’t hold a grudge, but he’s a fiery competitor; proving himself against Reid would be meaningful.
Another narrative: the Kelce brothers. Jason Kelce (Eagles center) and Travis Kelce (Chiefs TE) famously faced off in Super Bowl LVII, and Travis got bragging rights. They’ve since become media darlings with their joint podcast, etc. The media hasn’t played up the brother vs brother angle as heavily this time, but it’s still there. Jason Kelce contemplated retirement and this could be his last game – his teammates would love to send him out on top (if he indeed decides to hang it up). That emotional factor could be rallying for Philly. For Travis Kelce, he’s looking to continue building the greatest TE legacy ever; another ring (and possibly another big SB performance) moves him further into legendary status. The brotherly rivalry is all love publicly, but internally each would surely cherish beating the other again (or getting revenge).
Quarterback legacies are front and center in media talk. Mahomes is gunning for his third ring at age 29, which would put him ahead of where Brady was at that age and very much on a GOAT trajectory (Super Bowl 59: Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs embracing role as 'villains' in pursuit of three-peat history | NFL News | Sky Sports). The media has discussed whether Mahomes could eventually catch Brady’s 7 rings – a third ring here would keep that remote but possible discussion alive. He’s also in his fifth Super Bowl in seven seasons (Super Bowl 59: Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs embracing role as 'villains' in pursuit of three-peat history | NFL News | Sky Sports), which is mind-boggling. The team seems aware but tries to downplay it, focusing on “one at a time.” For Hurts, a ring would validate his rapid rise and secure his status among the NFL’s elite QBs. It’s been noted that Hurts doesn’t have an MVP (he’s been runner-up), so a Super Bowl win and possibly MVP could be his way of claiming the spotlight he’s been just shy of. Hurts is extremely poised and mature – his teammates often note his steadiness: he’s the same unflappable guy up 20 or down 3. That demeanor helps in big games (and helped in the last SB until the very end). There is a minor narrative about Hurts’ contract as well: he got a big extension; winning a Super Bowl would prove he’s worth every penny (not that many doubt it). Conversely, if he struggled, critics might chirp about the investment (that’s more off-season talk though).
Team unity and distractions: Both teams appear to be in a good place. There have been no major off-field distractions or controversial comments leading up. The Eagles did have a little issue with an illness going around, but that actually might have bonded them (the classic “Jordan flu game” narrative gets tossed around jokingly). Sirianni said a lot of guys being here before is important in handling the media hoopla (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters). Indeed, the Eagles have media-savvy veterans (Kelce, Graham, Slay) ensuring younger players aren’t overwhelmed. The Chiefs are basically old pros at Super Bowl week now – they know the routine, media day, etc., so nothing should catch them off guard. If anything, the Eagles might be hungrier simply because they haven’t gotten to taste victory, whereas the Chiefs must guard against any sense of entitlement. But given the stage and the opponent, it’s hard to imagine Kansas City not being fully motivated.
Coaching pressure: There’s a narrative that if it comes down to a crucial decision, Reid’s experience gives KC a calm edge, whereas Sirianni’s aggressiveness could either pay off huge or backfire. Sirianni going for a gutsy 4th-and-3 could be lauded if it works or lambasted if it fails. He doesn’t coach scared, which players love, but the media spotlight will be harsh on any perceived mistake. Reid, having won two, might feel a little freer to go into his bag of tricks (like a surprise onside, or a weird goal-line formation) – if it fails, his legacy is secure regardless. Sirianni might feel more pressure to prove himself.
Intangibles: The Eagles have repeatedly said they are treating this like any other game: “It’s still the same field, same game of football” (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters). That mindset can prevent choking under pressure. But human nature means nerves will be there at kickoff. Whichever team settles in first could start better. In SB LVII, the Eagles started hot while the Chiefs were a bit shaky early. If that repeats, Philadelphia could jump out to a lead again. Conversely, the Chiefs, with their confidence, might weather any early storm knowing they can come back (they’ve overcome playoff deficits many times).
The media has also built up the angle of “Eagles improved roster” (with Barkley, Carter, etc.) vs “Chiefs slight decline on offense without a true WR1”. Philly might internally believe they are simply the better team this time around. But any whiff of overconfidence can be dangerous against Mahomes. Sirianni has been hammering that the Chiefs are “a great opponent – well-coached, great players, smart” (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters), keeping his guys respectful and focused.
In conclusion, psychologically the Eagles carry the motivation of revenge and hunger, while the Chiefs carry the confidence of champions and pursuit of history. The team that best controls those emotions – not coming out flat or too amped – will have an edge. Both squads seem very mentally tough and united. This game likely won’t be decided by anyone choking or getting rattled; it will come down to execution. Still, if one team makes an early mistake (turnover or blown coverage), handling that adversity calmly will be key. The Chiefs have shown time and again they don’t blink when trailing. The Eagles have also shown resilience (they were down in multiple games this year and rallied). So mentally, expect a heavyweight fight with neither backing down. As Jason Kelce said in his podcast, “these are the moments you live for – embrace it.” Whichever team can “embrace the moment” without it overwhelming them will play their best. Given all the narratives – revenge vs. dynasty, MVP candidates, brother vs brother – this Super Bowl has no shortage of storylines. Once the ball is kicked off, though, those narratives give way to the reality on the field. And as we’ve analyzed, that reality slightly favors one side…
Prediction: Who Wins and Why
After weighing all factors – statistical, strategic, and intangible – the Philadelphia Eagles appear primed to win a hard-fought Super Bowl LIX. The prediction here is Philadelphia 27, Kansas City 24, with the Eagles pulling away in the fourth quarter and holding off a final Mahomes drive. The Eagles’ balance and strength in the trenches should ultimately win out. Philadelphia’s superior defense and dominant run game will allow them to control the tempo, win the turnover and rushing battle, and keep Patrick Mahomes from completely taking over. Expect Jalen Hurts to play a poised game, perhaps not outdueling Mahomes in flashy stats, but making the critical throws in big moments and using his legs to convert key third downs. The addition of Saquon Barkley is a true X-factor that Kansas City didn’t face in the last Super Bowl meeting – behind the Eagles’ powerhouse offensive line, Barkley’s impact could be game-changing, especially as the Chiefs defense wears down late (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com) (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters). On the other side, while Mahomes will undoubtedly have his moments of magic (he’s too good to be contained all game), the Eagles’ defensive front and coverage versatility can force just enough stalls (and maybe a takeaway) to prevent Mahomes from hitting the high 30s on the scoreboard. Remember, the Chiefs offense at times struggled against strong defenses this year (e.g. only 16 points vs Denver’s tough D) (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com), and this Eagles unit is arguably the best they’ll have seen.
Key reasons for the Eagles pick: Philadelphia’s pass rush and secondary match up well with KC’s receiving corps, and they can generate pressure without blitzing, which historically is one of the few ways to slow Mahomes. Offensively, the Eagles’ multi-faceted run game should find success and force KC to adjust, opening up efficient passing opportunities for Hurts. Additionally, the Eagles’ edge in turnover margin could manifest here – perhaps a strip-sack or a tipped-pass interception turns the tide (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com). In contrast, Kansas City’s defense, while solid, may bend too much against the varied Eagles attack. Unless Chris Jones absolutely takes over or the Chiefs steal extra possessions with gambles, it’s hard to see them consistently stopping Philadelphia in short-yardage or red-zone situations (Hurts’s QB sneaks and the threat of Barkley give Philly a big advantage in those critical downs).
Point Spread Suggestion: With the line roughly Chiefs -1, our prediction implies taking the Eagles +1 (or on the moneyline at near even odds) is the play, as we foresee an outright Philadelphia win. We project the Eagles by about a field goal, so if one wanted to be more aggressive, an alternate spread of Eagles -2.5 could be considered (to fetch plus-odds) given our 3-point margin expectation. But in betting terms, grabbing the point or the ML is the prudent move – it covers you in case of a one-point Eagles loss or an overtime game scenario. The total of 49.5 also might come slightly Under in our projection (27+24=51, which is just over – but that’s with both teams hitting a couple big plays; if defenses hold to their season form, a 24-21 type game totaling in mid-40s is very plausible). So lean Under 49.5 as well, as both teams may have longer, clock-eating drives and defenses that stiffen in the red zone (note: the public heavy on over, but bookmakers holding under 50 suggests a slightly lower scoring expectation) (Super Bowl Odds: Sharps on Chiefs, Public Leans Toward Eagles).
In a matchup this close, it often comes down to a pivotal sequence or two. The Eagles’ hunger and slight roster edge should allow them to seize those moments. Perhaps it’s a fourth-down conversion in the red zone that leads to a touchdown instead of a field goal, or Darius Slay intercepting Mahomes on a tipped ball to stop a scoring drive. Philadelphia has been on a mission since that loss two years ago, and with a more complete team now, they are built to finish the job. The Chiefs, reigning champs that they are, will not go quietly – Mahomes and Reid almost guarantee a competitive game. But ultimately, look for the Eagles to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, earning a measure of revenge and denying Kansas City’s bid for a historic three-peat. Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 24. (Take Philadelphia +1 with confidence, as the underdogs win outright.) (Super Bowl picks: Making a case for each team | theScore.com) (Eagles look to deny Chiefs' three-peat, get revenge at Super Bowl | Reuters)
Let’s check back on Monday and see if the AI nailed it or completely whiffed.
And no matter who you’re backing on Sunday, here’s to a great game—may your team bring it home.
Mitch
Thought Leader, Inclusion Specialist, Global Citizen, Chief Galvanizer, Social Justice Advocate, Speaker and Author
2 周Holy s$&@ I should have just read this before the game and saved myself a horrible time.
Transformative Marketing & Sales Leader | AI Strategist | SaaS & Legal Tech Innovator | Revenue Growth Architect | Technology Author & Thought Leader | AI Podcast Host | Top 50 Legal Tech Content Creator
2 周My goodness that’s going deep indeed!!! Can’t wait to see how it plays out but one things for sure…Deep Research is making some serious waves this week!!!
WMVR-db Chicago ???? ?? accessible, ubiquitous, persistent broadcasting
2 周KC all the way! ??????????????
Technology & IP Attorney | AI Governance Professional
3 周Go Birds!