Hydrogen’s Flight Path: Overcoming Challenges to Net-Zero Aviation
Robert Courts KC
Formerly Minister for Aviation, Maritime & Security (DfT), Chair of Defence Select Committee, Solicitor-General for England & Wales - now Director of Ascalane Partners Ltd. Barrister & Mediator.
A quick look at the recent Destination 2050 roadmap report – the European aviation industry’s decarbonisation grouping – which has delivered some headline-grabbing updates to its decarbonisation roadmap, purporting to scale back the role of hydrogen-powered aircraft from 20% of net emissions reductions by 2050, to just 6%. Notwithstanding the figures, this is simply a clarion call for smoother regulation and focussed government vision and input, in order to grasp the potential that is on offer.
Despite aerospace giant Airbus subsequently announcing delays in its hydrogen aircraft development timeline, it remains committed to hydrogen technology. The same is true of wider industry. All acknowledge the significant challenges in developing hydrogen-powered aircraft: escalating costs, slow infrastructure development, technological challenges, and the need for supportive regulatory frameworks. But all who know the industry well remain rightly optimistic about hydrogen’s long-term potential, with continued research, investment, and collaboration to overcome the inevitable temporary obstacles.
Rising Costs and Industry Realities
As I have covered elsewhere, across the whole of policy, the cost of achieving net zero has been ever more in focus and is going to have an impact on policy whether we like it or not. In the aviation world, Destination 2050 estimates the cost as rising to €1.3 trillion – €480 billion more than previously anticipated.
Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are almost certain to be the cornerstone of aviation’s decarbonisation strategy over the next couple of decades, given their compatibility with existing engines and infrastructure. They are a vital part of the mix.
However, SAFs – both based on waste and synthetic eFuels – currently remain expensive and limited in supply. And they still emit, requiring carbon capture and/or offsetting.
Hydrogen is ultimately the clean transformative fuel. The challenges include:
The Case for SAFs
Unlike hydrogen, SAFs can reduce emissions by up to 70% and require no drastic changes to current fleets. Nevertheless, scaling up SAF production presents significant challenges. The European aviation stakeholders have, in the report, called on the European Commission to adopt a robust industrial and aviation strategy to close the price gap between SAF and conventional fuels, with the UK independently making major progress recently.
There is no doubt that much more action on SAF of both the waste and synthetic varieties is going to be vital in the years ahead – and holds great promise in itself.
What Needs to Change
While Airbus remains optimistic about developing a commercially viable hydrogen aircraft, there appears to be a growing consensus that, on current trajectory, hydrogen will not have replaced internal combustion by 2050. Indeed, Airbus have recently delayed plans to develop a hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft by the middle of next decade, citing slower than expected developments in technology.
It is undoubtedly the case that Europe must take more decisive action to shape the future of zero-emission aviation by investing in SAF infrastructure and setting clearer policies. Much of this replies to the UK, too.
More worryingly are some of the inevitable calls to rethink aviation’s broader role in decarbonisation, with all the long-term impact that would have. These include:
All of which threaten economic productivity, our place in the world, and the innovation needed across the economy.
What does this all mean?
This report highlights a broader issue: the challenges industries inevitably face in turning long-term climate commitments into actionable strategies. The updated roadmap underscores an urgent message from industry in Europe, much of which applies to the UK, too.
Whilst the aviation/aerospace industry acknowledges the significant challenges in developing hydrogen-powered aircraft, including technological hurdles, infrastructure development, and the need for supportive regulatory frameworks, this is too significant and promising technology for the focus to be lost.
This recent report might suggest a reduced role for hydrogen in near-term decarbonisation efforts, but we must not lost sight of how many stakeholders remain hugely optimistic about its long-term potential, emphasising the importance of continued research, investment, and collaboration to overcome current obstacles.
The message, as ever, is this: Europe’s aviation sector cannot achieve net zero alone. Coordinated action between governments, industries, and investors on new technologies, SAF and hydrogen, is essential to secure the sustainable future for air travel that is entirely within reach if the right action is taken – and uphold the UK and Europe’s international competitiveness.