Hybrid Warfare is dead...long live "Cognitive Warfare"

Introduction

For the past two decades or so, the term "cybersecurity" has been used as an "umbrella" term, usually within the wrong context. While cybersecurity is not a new concept (for example, Cliff Stoll's "The Cuckoo's Egg" takes place somewhere in the 1980s, the rapid expansion of the internet, as well as the extended digitization of our lives, made cybersecurity a "trend." One of the issues regarding cybersecurity is the lack of standardization (a simple search of the definition of "cybersecurity" can provide enough proof). Therefore, there is no globally accepted definition of what cybersecurity actually is. The simplest explanation is that it refers to the security within the cyber[space], which again leads to a dead end since we also lack a proper definition of what cyberspace is.

Cyberspace can be seen as a domain outside of the physical world (earth, water, air, space), which has similarities and differences with the latter. Unlike the physical domain, the cyber domain is a world created by us, and we mostly control what happens in it. One of the most apt definitions of cyberspace is the one provided by Prof. Daniel T. Kuehl. In short, cyberspace encompasses not only the digital domain but also communications and the whole electromagnetic spectrum, thus representing present reality. Extending Kuehl's definition, we can identify that domination in cyberspace will ultimately lead to domination in the physical domains, and since information is one of the most important cyberspace building blocks, the entity that dominates information dominates the world.

Hybrid Warfare

Hybrid warfare is another—still debatable—concept that emerged during the last decades. In 2007, Frank Hoffman proposed a new military strategy that combines conventional military tactics and methods with irregular ones and offensive and defensive operations in cyberspace. While most of the hybrid warfare elements are not new (the concept of a trade war as part of a larger military campaign is almost as old as humanity itself), the subversive efforts within the concept of hybrid warfare are taking the lead over the conventional ones. In that view, dominating the information space is critical for the success of any hybrid warfare campaign. Since cyberspace dominates the creation, collection, process, and dissemination of information, old approaches, such as propaganda - which manipulates facts and valid information to influence (positively or negatively) a specific and targeted audience - will arise with a new facade.

Cyberwarfare, which is the use of cyberspace for launching [cyber] attacks that will result in comparable harm to conventional attacks, although the casualties can be kept to a minimum (or even zero), is one of the key elements of hybrid warfare, even though the "warfare" part is still debatable. Another key concept of cyberwarfare, which usually goes unnoticed, is that the attacks will not be affected by any geographical restrictions. The best example that showcases the latter, is the comparison between operation Opera/Babylon and Stuxnet. More on the subject here. In the "era of information", hybrid threats have gained unprecedented power due to the rapid advancement of technology and the proliferation of digital capabilities and elements. The interdependence of the globalized society has created a vast digital landscape where misinformation, propaganda, and cyberattacks can be (and are being) utilized as weapons in an ever-increasing arsenal. State and non-state actors can exploit this digital landscape to distort public opinion, sow discord, and undermine trust in institutions. The ability to conduct influence campaigns, spread misinformation, and launch cyberattacks presents a significant challenge for governments, organizations, and each of us individually.

The Rise of Cognitive Warfare

"Intelligence"

The term intelligence can have several meanings (from human intelligence to artificial intelligence) and applications. Usually, it refers to the ability to perceive or infer information (which in turn is “data in concept”) (more here) and further evolve it through a cognitive process to retain it as knowledge, which will later be applied to adaptive behaviors within an environment. One of the first applications of the term intelligence refers to the military discipline that uses information collection, verification, and analysis to provide guidance and direction in the decision-making process. The latter is dominated by the OODA (or Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) loop, which is a decision-making model originally developed by John Boyd for the United States Air Force. Currently, the OODA loop is applied – beyond the obvious military strategy, in litigation, business, law enforcement, management, and education. It is especially applicable to cyber security and cyber warfare.

Cognitive Warfare

The term "cognitive warfare" has risen to prominence after the observation of the digital realm and modern digital technologies are used to create an "alternative" universe, where disinformation and information manipulation actions (the modern term for propaganda) are exploited, together with advances in processing power, artificial intelligence, and big data analysis, to create a distorted reality. These actions will be conducted in synchronization with other actions, such as terrorism, to affect the cognitive processes and behaviors of targeted individuals (such as top leaders), groups, or the whole of society, aiming to gain an advantage over a specific strategic operation and objectives.

The whole concept of "cognitive warfare" lies in what Sun Tzu described as the "supreme art of war": subduing your enemy without fighting. Throughout history, there are hundreds of examples where armies were "discouraged" or "encouraged" to go to battle, certain about their military, ethical, or religious advantage. During WWII, allied bombers tried to "convince" the population of German cities that their regime was incapable of protecting them and their defeat was imminent. While their efforts were not successful, they paved the way for the "shock and awe" strategy employed in the First Iraq War. In our digitally interconnected world, the tools used are completely different. Deep fakes, "bot armies", social media, and information manipulation efforts are used now to alter our perception of reality.

Epilogue

The merge between the physical and digital world has already started. Modern technologies and approaches, such as neuropharmacology, nano-sensors, and more, are pushing the limits towards the human element itself. The modern battlefield is shifting towards the individual instead of the state and targets the minds rather than tanks or military airplanes. This is a fast-moving domain where new approaches and methods are constantly discovered and exploited, even before being widely known. As the boundaries of peace and war, fake and real, military and non-military, are becoming extremely blurry, it is crucial to return to the "human element"

SL