A hung parliament might still be the better option!

With the strongest possible showing for the Libdems might we be still be able to precipitate a movement towards a government of national unity?

I have hardly encountered the degree of frustration and despondency with the thinking public as I have with tomorrow’s British general election. What unpalatable political choices have been presented to us - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/politics-crisis-how-vote-claudius-van-wyk/

Here are the possible scenarios as I see it:

Option one: Boris Johnson comes to power - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/pending-death-politics-usual-claudius-van-wyk/

With the polls predicting an outright Conservative majority of up to 30 seats what are the likely consequences?

Economic disruption:

The economic uncertainty of the on-going Brexit trade wheeling and dealing has a potential for the increasing demonization of Europe in negotiations. NATO's solidarity can be further compromised, and, as a consequence, Russian aspirations further advantaged - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/jan-smuts-prophetic-brexit-warning-dont-abandone-europe-van-wyk/

But no, Johnson can’t sell the NHS to Donald Trump - that is blatant nonsense - but he can open the doors to international market entry to supply NHS needs - drugs, equipment, professional services, IT outsourcing, etc. But the NHS' access to European nurses, expertise, resources will be fundamentally compromised.

Yes, ironically we can anticipate increased Keynesian-type government spending financed by borrowing to counteract the depressed economic trading conditions during the transition phase of the breakup with Europe. This will widen the fiscal deficit and increase national debt.

Social disruption:

Britain could enter a Trump-like era of opportunistic populism with Johnson appealing to the baser instincts of Britons. The polarisation of British society could deepen fuerther with the likelihood of heightened protest and even social disruption.

Political disruption:

As we sadly have come to experience, political debate is likely to be characterised by rancor-filled invective with reason and common sense drowned out. Could we see increased Scottish resistance and could we even see increased disturbance in Northern Ireland?

Option two: Corbyn comes to power - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/who-me-prime-minister-claudius-van-wyk/

Whilst this scenario is generally anticipted to be unlikely to happen without SNP assistance - nevertheless here goes:

Economic disruption

The economy continues to stall with promised new Brexit negotiations. Further distraction is generated by the promised second referendum. Labour embarks on a spending spree to renationalize core utilities and industries financed through borrowing and with increased taxation. Investment is stifled in face of socialist policies. Spending to fulfil election promises increases the fiscal deficit and national debt. This could impact interest rates? See also: https://members.tortoisemedia.com/2019/12/10/191210-corbyns-victory/content.html?sig=Fs7-8ZWD_w4KUxUUAPvm9vFOdcXSfuEvIJjByDHUVeE&fbclid=IwAR2E0XD-QP5RCyxX3fSlcaeVSbhmGWqhFk82Aa1S27xKN49-XjWOo1R_uEo

Social disruption:

Labour’s socialist agenda deepens British polarisation and could provoke rightwing extremism. The so-called ‘progressive’ socialistic demands are enhanced with 'occupy'-like movements, 'extinction rebellion'-type protest is encouraged. There could also be heightened trade union demands. Economic uncertainty is likely to be deepened.

Political disruption:

Similarly parliamentary debate will be characterised by hostility, rancour and invective.  Meanwhile Johnson’s political nightmare of a manacled parliament indeed comes true.

Option three: Corbyn comes to power with SNP support:

There is an inevitable demand for another Scottish referendum. There could also be strongly increased demands for Scottish economic quid-pro-quo. This could also precipitate heightened Northern Ireland uncertainty.

Option four: Hung parliament - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/has-british-politics-struck-iceberg-claudius-van-wyk/

Economic disruption:

Business confidence is likely to continue to stall as parties try to put together some form of coalition government. Meanwhile, with Johnson likely to refuse to budge from no 10 Downing Street, we could see public protest and demonstrations in Whitehall.

Social disruption:

No doubt public disquiet and frustration will be heightened with increased energy for public protest?

Political disruption:

The Libdems are likely to come under pressure to support a Corbyn administration whilst the DUP comes under pressure to support a Johnson administration.

Best outcome:

As dreary and unpromising as this all appears to be, the ensuing political hiatus could just stimulate a movement, possibly initiated by senior statesmen like former premiers Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and John Major, for a government of national unity.

That will require the identification of a credible compromise interim leader of integrity to head a potential government. Once that has been achieved and inter-party agreement could be reached on a Brexit deal and then renegotiated with EU. A second referendum on leave, under new conditions, or remain could follow - see:: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/should-queen-now-take-charge-claudius-van-wyk/

Ultimately, following that, a national convention on political and constitutional renewal could be convened to forge a vision of a new British future - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/post-brexit-vision-britain-claudius-van-wyk/

However:

Even if Johnson does come to power - a stronger political centre must still be there to help support overdue efforts to transform British politics - see: https://www.dhirubhai.net/pulse/holistic-values-vision-inform-policy-claudius-van-wyk/

But let this be said: Notwithstanding the frustrating confusion resulting from an outdated and unworkable political system in this era of increasing complexity - we can be grateful to live in a society where freedom of expression is still sacrosanct.