Humza Yousaf elected as SNP Leader and First Minister-elect of Scotland: Analysis from Kevin O'Donnell

After a gruelling contest which laid bare divisions in the SNP not seen for decades, Humza Yousaf, a Sturgeon ally, has narrowly been elected as SNP Leader and First Minister-elect of Scotland. In the end, when second preferences were considered, Yousaf polled 52% of the vote to Kate Forbes’ 48%. Yousaf, a former Health Secretary and Justice Secretary, has a daunting in-tray and, despite the talk of uniting the party in his acceptance speech, he becomes leader at a time of infighting, introspection, and division. Yousaf – the MSP for Glasgow Pollok – will seek to govern very much in the mould of Nicola Sturgeon; he has already pledged to create an extra band of income tax and has pledged to introduce a wealth tax, raising cash from land and renewable energy projects. The mantra will be one of progressivism and social democracy in line with the modern-day positioning we have become accustomed to. The Scottish Greens will also breathe a sigh of relief as the Bute House Agreement – which brought them into government – looks like it will endure for some time yet.

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Yousaf’s opponents, particularly Scottish Labour, will immediately point to the fact that his mandate from party members is threadbare. In the first hour since Yousaf’s election, Labour has pointed to the fact that 48% of SNP members backed a centre-right candidate with conservative views on economic and social issues. Although Yousaf is the torchbearer for Sturgeonism, Labour will still sense an opening, arguing that the SNP’s progressive veneer has slipped. Anas Sarwar will relentlessly argue that only a vote for his party in Scotland can remove the Conservatives at the next UK General Election; Yousaf is alert to the danger Labour poses, here, and, like the times of old, the SNP may be crowded out and struggle for relevance in a Westminster election. Ensuring the SNP hold on to swathes of seats in Glasgow and the Central Belt is Yousaf’s first big political test.

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Yousaf has promised to build support for independence gradually. In line with Alex Salmond’s approach, he argues that governing competently will grow support for independence over time. There are a few immediates to note with regards Yousaf’s approach to independence. First, he will quietly ditch Nicola Sturgeon’s plan to use the next election as a de-facto referendum. He argues this is a lose-lose for the SNP; fail to win 50+1% of the vote and the party’s opponents say they have had their second referendum and lost. Win 50+1% of the vote and party’s opponents simply argue no general election can be used as a ‘de-facto’ vote on anything. The fact Nicola Sturgeon proposed this at all was symptomatic of the fact she had completely run out of road when it came to securing a second referendum. Yousaf now inherits the strategic dilemma that wracked his predecessor. With the UK Government standing firm on the issue of a Section 30 Order, the prospect of a second vote on independence is, to all extents and purposes, off the table for some time. Yousaf must show he can be a competent First Minister for all of Scotland, no mean feat in a deeply divided country.

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On policy, Yousaf will be a proponent of Net Zero and will continue to advocate for a ‘just transition’ away from fossil fuels. He will seek to ‘reinvest’ profits from natural resources in communities; so, with the Scotwind Leasing process, for example, Yousaf advocates taking a public equity stake as opposed to simply leasing the Scottish seabed. He will portray himself as a First Minister willing to use the powers of devolution to the maximum. One problem hangs over Yousaf, however, and that is he consistently polls poorly amongst the voting public. During the campaign, it was clear from polling that Kate Forbes was the country’s number one choice to succeed Nicola Sturgeon. Yousaf, by contrast, was found to be the most unpopular Cabinet Secretary in the Scottish Government. It remains to be seen whether Yousaf can rise to the challenge of First Minister, but, one thing is clear, and that is his in-tray is as daunting as the task of succeeding Nicola Sturgeon as Leader of the Scottish National Party.?

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