Humbled by the Sun: Forecasters vs. Reality

?? The graph above shows how booming solar installations have now made policy targets in many countries outdated.

Indeed, last week we examined the ultra-fast cost declines for solar PV, especially over the past year, driven by overcapacity in China. This has resulted in highly attractive economics in many countries (though it may also lead to lower captured prices due to merit-order effects in advanced markets, as noted in earlier posts).

But it’s not just policymakers being left behind. Reputable forecasters have repeatedly increased their solar installation predictions—only to be humbled by reality (see next graph).

This trend has been evident for several years, but this graph underscores the point made by The Economist , which I mentioned in last week’s post: "That makes it hard for people to get their heads round what is going on".

To sum up: once again, industry is outpacing policy. In light of #COP28’s Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge, this is good news (see last graph)... at least for solar.

You may see it differently—opinions always welcome!

?? References: Ember (2024) “Solar power continues to surge in 2024”; Ember (2024) “In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not.”

#SolarPV #Era #Exponential #Growth

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