Humanity Reunited

Mass vaccination, economic stagnation, emotional need, seasonal change, and social pressure drive the official and active reopening of industries that invite socialization in most of the West.

During the sixth video conference of the day, someone asked, regarding a work session at the end of July, if "we could meet in person." Voices of skepticism, doubt, and surprise-filled the virtual room, and I asked (twelve LatAm participants) "beyond the reason, who has visited the United States in the last three months? I have spent two months in Miami." Only two had not.

Countries like Colombia and Mexico in April registered respectively 95,000 and 330,000 travelers to the United States, 30% more than the average of 2019, mainly influenced by the availability of vaccines, according to the Florida, Texas, New York, and California tourist offices, winning states with this flow -nourished- and not yet determined of visitors.

With the US living 'normality,' Spain and France's tourism reopening this summer (after not receiving 150 million people during the pandemic - ILO), the activation of vaccinated protocols like Schengen's Covid Pass, and the urgency of reactivation economic (Mexico reports 262 hotels and 2,000 restaurants closed, AHMH), many industries are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.'

Of course, there is a fundamental reason: humans need to meet again and reduce the impact on lifestyle changes, a phenomenon called from the trends perspective 'humanity reunited,' and which begins the fifth chapter of the dystopian story: 'Pandemic - Lockdown - Recession - Vaccination - Reactivation' that today determines life and global conversation.

Under this trend, economists such as Piketty or Kahneman confirm the direct relationship between the need for socialization, vaccination, and economic reactivation: at least 60% of adults are waiting for the vaccine to re-socialize as before, a process that counting the hospitality chain (ranging from restaurants, bars, through hotels, airlines, etc.) achieves 10% of global GDP.

So the more a person feels alone or 'appeased' by reality, Covid will seek a way to be vaccinated to obtain experiences that create memorable moments. It seems that there will be many: according to Ipsos, 40% of its global panel confirms that they have significantly more money than before the pandemic. Half of them intend to start spending it on vacation involving an airplane.

According to the IATA tourism survey in the US, success depends on vaccination; it's estimated that at least 173 million people will travel this summer on vacation. However, business travelers empty chairs needs to be filled, which will have a slight reactivation during 2021, with 46% of entrepreneurs and 61% of senior managers feeling their business performance affected by the absence of travel and planning to 'accumulate miles' again before December, according to SAP.

It sounds like a recovery, but the pandemic hit for airlines was severe; Bain & Company speaks of global revenues between 295 and 313 billion dollars by 2021, far from the 660 generated during 2019.

Industry leaders expect to return to where they were in three to four years. Meanwhile, they are preparing in the short term for a new chapter that recovers the traveler's confidence under a 'democratic' business model (as when Inditex and H&M made fast fashion's global expansion), as they prepare for a future where supersonic flights fuel a futuristic reinvention.

The first 'big wave' of tourists that the US has experienced since spring and that will soon move to Europe, England, and Mexico comes with cinemas, parks, discos, beaches, bars, restaurants, and concerts reopening all over the country. Local governments expect that most urban centers in these four zones have reached 'herd immunity by late summer.

For example, in preparation for this moment, restaurant owners reinvest, not to establish protocols but to create new experiences. Alejandro 'Matu' (Robb Report editor… expert) comments that in recent weeks have received four invitations from restaurants that will open soon in Mexico City, and cities like Miami turning into the 'it place' for Latins and east coast newcomers, you have to open any magazine.

A 'wave' of top LatAm restaurants will open in Miami and Madrid (such as La única... delicious), chains like Ritz Carlton and Rosewood are expanding in the region, and San Miguel de Allende returns to weddings and celebrations every weekend, and speaking of subject… in Palm Beach County (FL) there are places with full reservations for this purpose until January 2022, according to WSJ.

While this pandemic continues, its progress and control in each country will make the re-encounter arrive sooner or have less impact and living costs. It is difficult to ask people to follow strict confinement because, in essence, as humans, we are social animals... our vitality and mental health also depend on being and celebrating with others. Significantly few are asocials.

spanish version https://www.forbes.com.mx/red-forbes-re-encuentro-humano/