Humanity Needs A Vision of The Future, and Why It Is Not 4IR

A large number of articles have appeared which outline the role 4IR technologies may have in shaping the future. But, many of these articles offer a seductive narrative that disarms the critical attitude needed to expose the reality of these emerging technologies.

Most of these future narratives dismiss the possibility of a dystopian future. In this, they contradict present-day realities. One might wonder whether the authors have interviewed the 1 to 3 million Uyghurs, Kazakhs and other minorities in concentration camps in West China. The situation in West China is a Dystopian nightmare which has been enabled through the use of ML, Big Data, Biometrics, digital device tracking, and surveillance technology.

Many of the authors of these 4IR based descriptions of the future dismiss any significant impact on jobs. Whereas, the evidence from numerous business surveys shows that there are no budgets or plans for re-training of displaced workers. However, there are budget forecasts for the deployment of AI, Robotics and RPA to enable increased automation. I have read surveys and reports that suggest, while public statements express concerns over employment, privately, the intention is jobs displacement. It appears a large number of businesses are sold on a competitive advantage argument which requires automation and jobs displacement.

Apparently, digital technology, ML, and Predictive Analytics are employed in the invasive business model of Surveillance Capitalism. And, these same technologies together with Biometric technology enable authoritarian state surveillance. Both of these anti-human applications of 4IR technologies are becoming increasingly entrenched. Incrementally, by stealth, intrusive state surveillance will creep across the planet. Technology companies are already closely involved with state security and surveillance organisations: they provide cloud services, and ML algorithm based Biometric matching, profiling and predictive solutions. China and India maintain biometric databases. China has forcibly taken DNA from all Uyghurs in the country. In India, the entire population must provide full biometric details including iris scans, and fingerprints. Australia has developed its own biometric database.

Most 4IR inspired visions present a positive picture of the future yielding significant advances. However, these forecasts tend to dismiss alternative, less favourable, future scenarios. They also seek support in claims that previous industrial and technological revolutions generated major advances and so, they announce we should expect beneficial outcomes again. Yet, they give no critical analysis of why the future should be the same as the past. In this, they also fail to recognise the radically different capabilities of 4IR technologies which give them significant disruptive potential. Also, through these capabilities, 4IR technologies are powerful enablers of anti-human applications, and abuses of power.

The tone of most articles that promote a future of possibilities enabled by 4IR technologies is predicated on the inevitability of 4IR. That is, there are no other alternative futures. Therefore, without alternatives, society must accept this inevitability.

Most of these futuristic visions are created by technologists who articulate stories driven by technological possibility in search of an application. Consumed by technological capability, they unfold a narrative that seems to assume technology is the overriding force shaping the future. As a consequence, there is no recognition in their vision of the broader social context.

The more extreme 4IR based forecasts of the future propel the technology vision forward as an inevitability. Some of these visions acknowledge impacts on society. However, society is expected to disrupt itself in the face of inevitable change. Often, these forecasts will dismiss objections by assailing us with a list of benefits and a unilateral declaration that the benefits outweigh the impacts. That is, the technology vision of the future overrides humanity’s concerns and aspirations for the future.

These descriptions of a 4IR future are not vision statements which outline humanity’s aspirations for the future. They do not place humanity at the centre of a transformative future in which society overcomes major issues and realises a transcendent level of awareness of human possibility. In such a vision, the future is a resolution of humanity’s concerns and aspirations. Further, such a vision is human-centred in which technology functions in the service of humanity.

Now, there is a growing realisation that 4IR will lead to disruptive and adverse future outcomes. That realisation has stimulated the rise of 5IR as an alternative future. Nevertheless, 5IR is still a technology centred vision.

A credible vision of the future must be based upon the present realities of these technologies, and the structural issues in society that influence their development and use. In addition, it must provide a framework that will guide the transition from the present to the future. Further, that vision should indicate why it will be the preferred vision over other possibilities.

A vision of the future that does not provide a realistic statement of the present and a framework that describes the transition to the future is nothing more than an empty opinion.

In previous articles, I outlined issues in society with comments about how emerging technologies enable and amplify the adverse outcomes that result from them. A future vision that does not address these issues will become a new theatre for the expression of their adverse impacts; in effect, it becomes more of the same.

Today, throughout society, a number of social concerns are simmering just below the surface including: significant disenchantment with the political and social order; global employment uncertainty; privacy; economic disruption; growing inequality, and wealth concentration; the impacts to global security of the militarisation of AI and robotics; and the impact of digital technology on the psychological and social development of children. Emerging 4IR technologies can exacerbate these social concerns. Nevertheless, through the expanded level of awareness that may emerge, humanity will realise that technology exacerbates these social concerns and so, it may displace the 4IR centred future with its own vision.

There are recurring factors relevant to the collapse of civilisation, for example, Climate Change, and environmental degradation. We could also add the 6th Mass Extinction which could wipe out a significant part of global food crops. 4IR Technology disruption should also be considered. Here I imagine widespread jobs displacement due to AI and Robotics; the collapse of global supply chains due to 3-D and 4-D Printing; a critical deterioration of trust in news and information sources due to Social Media; and increasingly repressive authoritarian states employing Chinese style surveillance systems. Frustrated by the widespread feelings of uncertainty, estrangement, disenchantment, and with the political and social order brought to an explosive point, society ultimately collapses into revolution and chaos.

I suggest that all of these factors have common causes with our failed stewardship of the planet. Climate Change, environmental degradation, the 6th Mass Extinction, and the possibility of the 4IR future descending into global chaos are inevitable in an environment which is essentially a free-for-all, with no global governance, no holistic management plan, and no human-centred vision for the future.

Thank you for reading this essay. This article is the 6th in a related series that considers the impact of AI, Robotics and other 4IR technologies.

This article looks at the Singularity and how likely it is.

Are the visions of an AI, Robotics future human-centred or false narratives?

What impact will AI, Robotics have on jobs?

Some reasons why we should be concerned with an AI, Robotics future.

Why we need a new world-view to deal with the challenge of a 4IR future