The Human Touch: 10 Predictions for HR in 2019

It’s that time of year again when Santa is readying his sleigh, the familiar refrain of Fairytale of New York rings out across the airwaves, mince pies are being consumed by the dozen and the crystal ball is dusted off to guide my predictions for HR in 2019.

Predicting the future is, to quote Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy author Douglas Adams, fundamentally “a mug’s game” but essential given the sheer velocity of change means that we are going to have to live in the future, “probably next week”.

Whilst I wouldn’t dare to predict the outcome of Brexit (and live in hope it won’t actually happen), and demure at any prophecy of Liverpool’s Premier League aspirations for the current season, I’m happy to wade in when it comes to HR. Witness my previous predictions for 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014.

So, with a tin hat securely in place, tongue firmly in cheek and a belly full of mulled wine, it’s time to jump into the abyss…

1. THE HUMAN TOUCH

Whilst AI will undoubtedly revolutionise both the way we work and also the work we actually do, the dystopian commentary on how machines will consign us to unemployment and drudgery is simply wrong. Clearly, we are in the midst of huge disruption and many routine and repetitive tasks will indeed be automated. However, research from the likes of Gartner, the World Economic Forum (see Fig 1) and McKinsey all conclude that AI will create more jobs than it will replace. The jobs generated by AI will allow us to be more creative, more impactful and more human. As such, the trend that weaves its way through all my 2019 predictions share (to quote Bruce Springsteen) “a little of that Human Touch”. 

FIG 1: The Jobs landscape in 2022 (Source: World Economic Forum)

2. PERSONALISATION – ONE SIZE FITS ALL TO ONE SIZE FITS ONE

My lead prediction for 2018 will I believe, go into overdrive in 2019 as HR continues to take inspiration from marketing to create personalised experiences for employees. This is a radical shift from the ‘one size fits all’ HR programs of the past. But business needs, technological capability and the expectations of employees themselves means that this retrograde practice needs to be consigned to the wastebasket of history. Instead, personalising the ‘moments that matter’ on the employee journey and providing recommendations to support for example onboarding, learning and mobility not only benefits employees but also the organisation in terms of providing data to support strategy, workforce planning, retention - and business performance.

3. ADOPTION IN PEOPLE ANALYTICS SOARS

2018 was a landmark year for people analytics as interest and adoption in the field accelerated. With a Corporate Research Forum study finding that 69% of large organisations now have a people analytics team, the chasm of adoption seems to have finally been crossed. The work of people analytics teams is increasingly equally focused on providing value to employees as well as driving better business outcomes. Whilst, organisations still face numerous challenges in achieving sustained excellence in people analytics – not least in imbuing data literacy in the wider HR function and HR business partner community, expect more adoption in 2019 in line with people analytics continuing to shift from the periphery to the core of HR strategy. The business benefits of investing in people analytics are becoming more obvious too, with a recent study by Visier finding that the profit margins of organisations with advanced capability in people analytics are 56% higher than those of their peers. That sounds like the perfect clarion call for data-driven HR to me.

FIG 2: The rise in adoption and business value of people analytics (Sources: Corporate Research Forum and Visier)

4. PEOPLE DATA FOR GOOD

Ethics is the most important aspect of people analytics and also the field’s biggest challenge. 2018 saw the Cambridge Analytica scandal, news on Amazon’s biased hiring algorithm and the introduction of the EU’s GDPR. The potential of people analytics is enormous but the risk of getting it wrong and losing employee trust – perhaps irrevocably – is high. All of those who work in the field have a responsibility to ensure that people data is used for good. Fortunately, with the growing trend of providing personalised recommendations and insights to employees in exchange for the personal data that they share with their employers, the field is moving in the right direction. Coupled with a surge in the employee wellness market, expect to see the growth in ‘personal analytics’, whereby workers are given data-driven insights to make better personal and work-related decisions to increase exponentially in 2019.   

5. EMPLOYEE EXPERIENCE AND WELLNESS MOVES CENTRE STAGE

One of the best books I’ve read in 2018 was Jeffrey Pfeffer’s Dying for a Paycheck, which provided a sobering and damning analysis on how our workplaces are literally killing people. Not only do modern management practices engender stress, damage engagement and destroy the mental and physical health of employees, Pfeffer also emphasises the massive harm it causes company performance too. This is why the field of people analytics is so important as is the focus on employee experience and wellness. The methodologies being employed to understand, design and measure employee experience are getting more sophisticated, more data-driven and more wide-ranging. These include active and passive listening tools such as surveys, ONA and wearables plus the analysis of unstructured data (e.g. text) that in combination provide signals on how employees think, feel and behave. Expect to see growth in companies providing their employees with the tools, data and “nudges” to support exercise, mental health, work/life balance and consequently motivation, happiness – and performance.   

6. THE RISE OF SOCIAL CAPITAL

As companies seek to gain insights into what drives individual, team and organisational performance and productivity, there is a growing focus on maximising the value of the organisation’s social capital – namely how individuals and teams are connected within the enterprise. This has seen a rapid growth in companies using Organisational Network Analysis (ONA) to map relationships, identify key influencers, highlight employees at risk of burnout, get insights on performance and support innovation amongst other uses (see Fig 3). The ONA vendor market (also see Fig 3) is booming and is set to gather pace in 2019 as more companies adopt ONA. For more on this topic, please see The Role of ONA in People Analytics.

“Bringing in the best people is only part of the solution. Firms must also bring out the best in people. To do this entails a new frontier, unleashing social capital potential”

Michael Arena

FIG 3: Typical ONA use cases (left) and vendor market scan (right) (Source: David Green, The role of ONA in People Analytics)

7. NUDGE, NUDGE: BEHAVIOURAL ECONOMICS ENTERS HR

One of my predictions from last year, which with the emergence of Humu from stealth mode and other vendors developing tools in this area, I expect to really come to the fore in 2019. To recap, HR is once again playing catch up with marketing here as companies have long sought to understand and influence consumer behaviour. Whilst examples in HR are still in short supply, I know a number of people analytics teams experimenting in this area. One of these is Google (watch Prasad Setty speaking here) where much of the work undertaken by the people analytics team is on research to help educate Googlers on how they make decisions and they can improve these over time. Expect to hear more about companies researching the impact of behaviour on employees, teams and organisations in the next 12 months. 

8. THE HR TECH MARKET CONTINUES TO INNOVATE – AND CONSOLIDATE

In a backstage conversation at UNLEASH, Josh Bersin revealed to me that he is currently tracking 1,400 HR tech companies globally. Investment in the space is rising in parallel with the hype and the choice facing buyers is daunting. With the pace of technological capability quickening, the digital transformation of HR and rising employee expectations, investment, innovation and confusion are all also set to increase. 2018 saw LinkedIn launch Talent Insights and acquire Glint, SAP spend $8 billion on Qualtrics, the emergence of Humu and the growth of an increasingly impressive glut of start-ups. Expect more innovation – and more consolidation in the space in 2019. 

9. THE FOCUS ON SKILLS INTENSIFIES

As companies seek to be more agile and prepare themselves for the challenges and opportunities offered through AI and automation, so the focus on workforce segmentation needs to shift from roles to skills. Indeed, as research from TI People finds (see Fig 4), segmentation by skill/skill set is set to triple in organisations by 2020. Becoming a skills-based organisation is a significant shift and will take time, so expect increased impetus from HR leaders, people analytics teams – and the vendor community in 2019. The whole area of skills will continue to have an increasing impact on workforce planning (skills for the future, workforce composition), learning (workers will require new skills in the workplace of the future) and talent acquisition (nurturing of talent pools, hiring new skills, site location etc) as well as company M&A strategy.

FIG 4: Workforce segmentation today and in 2020 (Source TI People)

10. A REVOLUTION IN HR SKILLS AND CAPABILITIES

HR is one of the most exciting areas to work in the business. This is partly due to the function facing perhaps unprecedented change and increased expectations on the value and impact it needs to provide to the business – and employees. As such, the skills and capabilities required by HR professionals are also undergoing seismic change. I’ve partnered recently with myHRfuture on a survey to understand what these skills are, and also which ones are most in demand from HR professionals themselves. Fig 5 provides an illustration of these skills. With the traditional HR professional bodies struggling to incorporate these requirements into their certification programs, expect to see the rise of alternative providers (like myHRfuture) to fulfil this growing demand.

FIG 5: What are the HR skills of the future (Source: myHRfuture)

HO, HO, HO...

That’s the ten predictions for 2019 done, which just leaves me to wish you all a Merry Christmas and a prosperous data-driven, employee-focused (and Brexit-free?) 2019.

REFERENCES

• Gartner - By 2020, Artificial Intelligence Will Create More Jobs Than It Eliminates
• McKinsey - AI, automation, and the future of work: Ten things to solve for
• World Economic Forum – The Future of Jobs 2018
• Corporate Research Forum – Strategic Workforce Analytics
• Jonathan Ferrar – Nine Dimensions for Excellence in People Analytics
• Visier – The Age of People Analytics
• David Green – Ethics, Trust and People Data for Good
• Josh Bersin - Wellbeing Around The World: How HR Departments Are Jumping Into Action
• Dirk Petersen – 6 steps to ethically sound people analytics
• Jeffrey Pfeffer – Dying for a Paycheck
• Michael Arena – Social Capital: The Next Frontier for HR
• David Green – The role of Organisational Network Analysis in People Analytics
• Laszlo Bock - The Humu Nudge Engine is Making Work Better—Here’s How
• Josh Bersin - A Typhoon Is About to Hit the HR Tech Market
• Andrew Marritt and David Green - Using employee text analytics to drive business outcomes
• Volker Jacobs - You can’t have organisational agility without these 5 building blocks

You might also want to read Anita Lettink’s extremely helpful collection of The Ultimate List of 2019 Trends and if I could pick out one especially to read, it would be Tom Haak’s 10 inspiring HR Trends for 2019.

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CHECK OUT A NEW COURSE ON 'CREATING A DIGITAL HR FUNCTION'

I'm delighted to have contributed a cameo role to a new online course on myHRfuture, which was launched this week and covers 'Creating a Digital HR Foundation'. You can find out more about the course here (or by clicking on the image below), which also features fellow instructors: Volker Jacobs, Emilie Bastrup and Chris Rowlands.

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SUBSCRIBE TO DATA DRIVEN HR

I launched Data Driven HR just over six months ago and amazingly we've now passed the 5,000 subscribers figure. Thanks to all of those who have already subscribed and supported me. If you'd like to join click here (or on the image below).

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

David is a globally respected writer, speaker, conference chair, and executive consultant on people analytics, data-driven HR and the future of work. He helps HR practitioners and organisations leverage data and analytical thinking to drive positive business outcomes, improved performance, and enhance employee experience. Prior to launching his own consultancy business and taking up board advisor roles at Insight222 and TrustSphere, David was the Global Director of People Analytics Solutions at IBM Watson Talent. As such, David has extensive experience in helping organisations embark upon and accelerate their people analytics journeys. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING ENGAGEMENTS

David will be chairing and/or speaking about people analytics, data-driven HR and the Nine Dimensions for Excellence in People Analytics model at the following events until the end of April 2019. If you are going to one of these events and would like to meet up with David or you would like to book him to speak at a conference, please contact David by email on [email protected]. 

• 22 Jan - Insight222 People Analytics Program European Member Meeting (on people analytics operating models), London (Member only - if you are a people analytics leader contact Stacey Smith for more detail)
• 31 Jan-1 Feb – People Analytics & Future of Work, San Francisco
• 5-6 Feb – HRD Summit, Birmingham
• 24-25 Feb - SHRM Tech EMEA, Dubai
• 19-20 Mar – UNLEASH, London
• 26-27 Mar – HR Core Lab - Leading with Talent Analytics, Barcelona
• 24-25 Apr - People Analytics & Future of Work, London