Human Progress - Everywhere You Look!

Steven Pinker’s marvelous book, Enlightenment Now, Viking 2018 states that progress is being made in every measure of human well-being.?

Very few people know that.

Rather than present it one day at a time,?

as I did 4 years ago, I present it all at once, so that the reader can savor it at

leisure. I highly recommend the book by Steven Pinker, a Harvard Professor.

A long life is the ultimate blessing. Pinker p 53

The average person living in the world today can be expected to live 71.4 years.?World Health Organization

For millennia, humans lived on average 30 years.?

In 1800, no country had a life expectancy above 40 years. By 1950, it had grown to 60 in Europe and the Americas.

Child mortality dropped from 50% in Sweden in 1775 to less than 1% in 2015! This trend is global.

The global rate has fallen from 18% in the 1960's to 4% in 2015. Think of the grief this has prevented!

Maternal mortality plummeted three hundred fold from 1.2% to O.004% in Europe from 1789 and today!

“The improvements in health among the global poor in the last few decades are so large and widespread that they rank among the greatest achievements in human history.

Few people are even aware that it is happening.” ?

Radelet, S. 2015 The Great Surge: The Ascent of the Developing World, page 75

Between 2000 and 2012, the rate of dementia among Americans over 65 fell 25%. Kolata, G.?

U.S. Dementia Rates are dropping even as population ages. NY Times, 11/21/2016

The cancer death rate has declined about 1%/year from 1990 to 2015.

Siegel, R. et al.?Cancer Statistics. A Cancer Journal for Clinicians?62: 10-29

The Global Polio Eradication Initiative is approaching its goal.?

In 2016, there were only 37 cases in 3 countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria). Sadly, Jonas Salk did not live to see this.

Malaria, in the past, killed half of the people who ever lived!

Between 2000 and 2015, the death rate from malaria fell by 60%.

In the first decade of the Third Millennium, the global death rate from AIDS was cut in half.

The UN has agreed to a plan to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030.

In the early 1900’s, two German chemists,?

Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch spent years perfecting a system that took nitrogen out of the air, and made ammonia for use as fertilizer.

Without that process, we would be able to produce only 2/3 of the food we currently produce.

Not only did they get a Nobel Prize; they are credited with saving the lives?

of more people than any other 20th Century scientists: 2,700,000,000 lives!

Extreme poverty is being eradicated, and the world is becoming middle class. In the past 200 years, the rate of extreme poverty in the world?

has gone from 90% to 10%?!!!!

Almost half of that huge shift has occurred since 1980!

This has occurred while the number of people?

living on the earth at the same time has increased from?

2 Billion in 1930 to almost 8 Billion in 2020.?

We added 4 billion people since 1975.

In some ways the world has become less equal,?

but in more ways the world’s people have become better off.

If everyone were well off, it would not be immoral for some to have more. But many are not well off, so we must move towards every individual’s well-being, and sufficiency in a humane manner.

We must not forget that the most effective levelers of economic disparities are epidemics, massive wars, violent revolutions, and state collapse.?

We must be careful what we wish for!

Muslim countries have seen a 40% decline in fertility from 1975 to 2015.

Iran experienced a drop of 70%; Bangladesh 60%.

Women in these countries are happily getting control of their fertility.

Since 1970, the United States has slashed its emissions of five air pollutants by almost 2/3!?

During this same period, population grew by more than 40%;?

people drove twice as many miles, and became 2.5 times richer.

Think of the urban waterways near you.?

Many of them are much cleaner today than they were 50-100 years ago.

Temperate forest deforestation declined from?

400 million hectares in 1650 to virtually 0 (zero) today.

Tropical forest deforestation fell 2/3 between 1950 and 2000.

The Amazon Rain Forest deforestation peaked in 1995,?

and from 2004 to 2013, the rate fell by 4/5!!!

The annual number of oil spills has fallen from more than 100 in 1973?

to just 5 in 2016.

The number of major spills fell from 32 in 1973 to 1 in 2016.

Meanwhile, between 1985 and 2016, oil shipped by sea doubled.

Protected areas of Earth’s land rose from 8.2% in 1990 to 14.8% in 2014.

This is an area double the size of the United States.

Marine Conservation areas more than doubled between 1990 and 2014.

More than 12% of the world’s oceans are under protection.

The 1963 Treaty banning atmospheric nuclear testing?

eliminated pollution from radioactive fallout.

The 1987 ban of chlorofluorocarbons ratified by 197 countries?

began the closure of the hole in the ozone layer,?

expected to heal by 2050.

Had this not occurred, the hole would have kept growing,?

and ultraviolet light from the sun?

would have made Earth uninhabitable by 2040!

The historic Paris Agreement on climate change marks a major step forward in attempting to reverse the human contributions to this potential disaster.

Dematerialization is a Friend of the Earth!

An aluminum can was 3 oz - now 0.5 oz

vinyl records for music - now MP3’s, no material

newspapers, entire forests - now iPod, no paper

telephone, answering machine, phonebook, camera, alarm clock, dictionary,?street maps, other apps, almost any information in the world = one smartphone!

The sharing economy is more efficient.

One half of American 18-year-olds do not have a driver’s license!

Young people prefer their experiences, rather than their cars.

Britons have reduced their annual use of material?

from 15.1 metric tons per person in 2001?

to 10.3 metric tons in 2013.

The nature of information technology works to?

decouple human flourishing from the exploitation of stuff.

Fifty percent of the entire world was estimated to be undernourished in 1947.?

In 1970 undernourishment in the developing world was 35%.

In 2015, it was 13%!?

All this progress while the population is increasing rapidly.

If we do many things to reduce our effect on global warming,?

and later find that it was not necessary,

we still will have improved human living conditions, especially air pollution, which is a major killer.

Between 1500 and 1700, the Great Powers were almost always at war.

Now they are never at war!

The last one was more than 60 years ago!

World War II at its worst saw almost 300 battle deaths per 100,000 people per year.

?Korean War??22 battle deaths/100,000 people

?Vietnam War??9

?Iran-Iraq War ?5

?1990-2010 ??<1

It may seem that the world has more refugees than ever right now.

Not so.

Today:? Syria ??4 million

1971? ??Bangladesh War??10 million

1947 ????Partition of India??14 million

1940-45 ?????WWII ??60 million in Europe alone,?

with the World Population then, half of what it is today!

Genocide has been practiced in all regions of the world?

and during all periods of history.

Genocides as old as history. Chalk and Jonassohn

Genocide was committed by both sides in WWII.?

Hitler, Stalin, Imperial Japan, USA (Hiroshima and Nagasaki)

The rate during that time was 350/100,000 people/year.

The rate of Genocide since 1945 averages about 15/100,000/year!

War is now illegal.?

The world’s nations have committed themselves to not waging war?

except in self-defense or with the approval or the UN Security Council.

Today the US could not annex Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah, as we did in 1846 in a war over unpaid debts.

Borders seem to be more fixed now than they ever have been.

Immanuel Kant proposed in 1795 that nations should agree to make war illegal.?

It was first agreed upon in the Pact of Paris (1928),?

The Kellogg (US Secretary of State) - Briand (French Foreign Minister) Pact.?

The century before the Kellogg-Briand Pact saw the equivalent of 11 Crimea-sized annexations/year.?

Since 1928, virtually every acre of land that was conquered?

has been returned to the State that lost it!

Illegality became effective with the founding of the United Nations in 1945.

In the19th Century: “War enlarges the mind of a people, and raises their character.“?Alexis de Tocqueville

“War is life itself.”???Emile Zola

“ …the foundation of all arts, and the high virtues and faculties of man…”

John Ruskin

Today, the idea that it is inherently noble to maim and kill people strikes most of us as the ravings of a madman.

War may be just another obstacle that an enlightened species learns to overcome, like pestilence, hunger and poverty.

Please think of the problems that America could solve?

if half of our Gross National Product (GNP) did not go to “Defense.”

Tools that help build this world are trade, democracy, economic development, peace-keeping forces and international norms and laws.

War destroys the world.

In 1921, deaths per 100 million vehicle miles was 24.

In 2015, they were 1?-?a 24 fold reduction!

Think of all the people who were saved from injury!

Autonomous cars should be able to save over 1 million lives per year.

Since 1980, about 650,000 Americans have lived,

who would have died if the rates had not dropped.

The Brooklyn Dodgers were named for pedestrians, who were

skilled at dodging cars and street cars (trams)!

Walking the streets today is 6 times safer than it was in 1927!

In 1970 the chance that an airline passenger would die?

in a plane crash was less than 5 in a million.

That small risk has fallen one hundred fold!!!! 5 in 100,000,000.

Every time a plane crashes, a huge effort is made by the

National Transportation Safety Board to find out?

what went wrong, and correct it.

Falls cause more deaths than fires, or drowning,?

but all are declining.

Ninety-six percent of calls to firefighters are for?

medical emergencies, and the rest for small fires.

A typical firefighter will see one burning building every other year!

A major longitudinal study of teenagers (Monitoring the Future) is documenting that high schoolers’ use of alcohol, cigarettes and drugs (other than marijuana and vaping) have dropped to the lowest levels since the survey began in 1976.

Employers Liability and Workmen’s Compensation - A win-win!

Management liked it - knowing what it costs is more predictable than being sued.?

Management, workmen, and insurers all had a stake in making workplaces safer!

In 1920, 50 deaths/100,000 workers/year

In 2010, ?4 deaths/100,000 workers/year!

The annual death rate from natural disasters in low-income countries?

has dropped from 0.7/100,000 in the 1970’s?

????to 0.2/100,000/year in 2015.

Lightning deaths have dropped 37 fold since 1900.

These numbers are affected by knowledge and agency, not fate!

Terrorism is a unique hazard to realizing how safe we are

because it combines major dread with minor harm.

In 2015 an American was 350 times more likely to die?

from homicide than from terrorism;?

800 times more likely to die in a car crash;?

3000 times more likely to die in any accident.

In 2015, Western Europeans were 20 times more likely to die?

from relatively rare homicides than from terrorism;

100 times more likely to die in a car crash; and

700 times more likely to die from any accident.

“Keep Calm and Carry On”

The Fate of Democracies?

Percent of World Population living in a democracy.

1816 ?-?1%

1850?- ?7%

1900?-?20%

1950?-<40%

2015?-?66%

“the worst form of government, except all the others that have been tried.”?

Winston Churchill

The Death Penalty - On its way out?

1960 - 10 countries had abolished the death penalty.

2015??100+?!

90 countries have laws on the books,?

but most have not put anyone to death in the past decade.

Public opinion lags: 2015 - Americans in favor, 61%, Europeans in favor, fewer than 50%

Appeals on death row by expensive lawyers cost the state 8 times more than life in prison.

Progress in Equal Rights - Racism

From 2008-2016, America had a wonderful Black President!

Progress in Equal Rights - Sexism

Ninety-six years after women were allowed to vote,

Hillary Clinton won a solid plurality of the popular vote

for President of the United States.????3 million votes

In 2016, the United Kingdom and Germany were led by women.

Progress in Equal Rights - Homophobia

In 2015, the Supreme Court of the US guaranteed?

the right of marriage to same-sex couples.

Progress in Equal Rights - Pew Research Center findings

“I think it is all right for blacks and whites to date each other.”

Those who disagreed dropped from 45% in 1987 to 10% in 2015

“Women should return to their traditional roles in society.”

those who agreed dropped from 50% in 1987 to?23% in 2015

“School boards ought to have the right to fire teachers who are

known homosexuals.” Those who agreed dropped from 30% in 1987

to 20% in 2015

Progress in Equal Rights for African-Americans

Poverty rate: ? 1960 = 55%??2011 = 27.6%

Life Expectancy ?????1900 = 33yrs ?2015 = 75.6yrs

Illiteracy ?????1900 = 45%??2015 = 0

Hate crimes 1996-2015 dropped more than 50%

African-Americans who live to 65 live longer

than whites of the same cohort (age).

Equal Rights for Jewish Americans

Hate crimes against Jewish-Americans (1996-2015) dropped 40%

Progress in Equal Rights for Women

2015 - 47% of the labor force is women

A majority of university students are women.

Violence against wives and girlfriends declined 75%, 1993-2015

Progress on Racial and Ethnic Prejudice?-?World

In 1950, more than 45% of countries had laws that discriminated?

against racial or ethnic minorities.

IN 2003, fewer than 20% had these laws, and more than 20% of countries?

had affirmative action - favoring disadvantaged minorities.

Progress on Women’s Rights?-?World

1900 - Women had the vote in 1 country!?New Zealand

2015 - Women can vote in every country in which men can vote,

except 1. Vatican City

Women now make up more than 20% of National Parliaments.

In six Muslim-majority countries, 88% of respondents?

believe in full equality for men and women!!!!

Progress on Gay Rights?-?World

Ninety (90) countries have decriminalized homosexuality since 1790,?

and 70 of those have occurred since 1945.

Progress in Reducing Child Labor

England - 1850-1910,?28% to 14%

USA ???1880-1915,?20% to 10%

WORLD??1950-2010,?30% to 10%

Legislation that made schooling compulsory?

contributed to this decline.

In 1999, one hundred and eighty (180) countries ratified?

The Worst Forms of Child Labor Convention.

These included hazardous labor and exploitation of children in slavery, human trafficking, debt bondage, prostitution, pornography, drug trafficking, and war.?

Much progress has already been made, but more is needed.

In 1825 the World Literacy Rate was close to 10%.?

By 1925, it had doubled.?

But now, even in the face of huge population growth,?

world literacy is at 83%.

In 1940, fewer than 5% of Americans had bachelor’s degrees from a college or university.

By 2015, almost one-third did.

Female Literacy

In 1885, the rate of English women’s literacy equaled men’s.

In 2015, the world was teaching just as many women to read?

as it was teaching men to read.

Since 1930, the world’s people have gained 25 points in IQ

(Intelligence Quotient).

Asia has had the fastest rise: from 1950-2014, a rise of 35 points.

Although the world remains highly unequal, every region has been improving.

We not only have a wealthier world; we have more longevity,?

better health, and vastly more knowledge.

Humans are definitely making progress.

Between 1870 and 2000, the average hours of work decreased from 60+ hours to 40 hours.

This has created a huge amount of time for other pursuits.

In the early 1900’s in America, poverty was a common end to a working life.?

With stronger public and private safety nets in place,?

senior citizens today are richer than working people.

The poverty rate in people over 65 plunged from 35% in 1960?

to less than 10% in 2011.

The amount of life that people lost to housework in America fell?

from 58 hours/week in1900 to 15.5 hours/week in 2011.

Time spent on laundry alone fell from 11.5 hours/week in 1920 to 1.5 hrs/wk in 2011.

Women got their washday back!

In 1929, Americans spent more than 60% of their disposable income on necessities.

By 2016, necessities were down to 35%!

In 1965, American men reported 32 hours of leisure per week.?

In 2015. leisure was up to 42 hours.

Women reported 30 hours in 1965; 36 hours in 2015.

In Iceland, it is illegal to pay men more than women.

The law went into effect on January 1, 2018

In 1924 America, 45% of mothers spent 2 or more hours per day?

with their children.

60% of fathers spent 1 or more hours with them.

By 1999, it was 71% of mothers (2+hrs) and 83% of fathers (1+hrs).

Today (2015) almost half of the world’s population has internet access,?

and three quarters (75%) have access to a mobile phone.

Long distance calls are remarkably inexpensive.

In the few years between 1995 and 2015, international tourism has more than doubled.

More people are getting to see our beautiful world.

Thanks to refrigeration, nitrogen storage?

and rapid transportation in refrigerated trucks,?

the varieties of food available to most people has increased dramatically.

The Information Revolution has brought virtually all the world’s literature and knowledge into the homes of millions.?

Just over 100 years ago, there was no radio, TV, movies or musical recordings, and for most people, no books or newspapers.

Mary Astell (1666-1731), considered by many the first feminist,?

wrote and debated in 17th Century England for equal rights for women.?

It has taken a long time, but we are almost there.

The next time you fly commercially and someone complains about some aspect of the flight,?just remember:?

You are sitting in a chair flying through the air like a Greek God. You are climbing through the clouds.?

You are traveling from New York to Los Angeles in 5 hours.?

Not long ago, it took years, and you might die on the way!

“People seem simply to have taken the?

remarkable economic improvements in stride?

and have deftly found new concerns to get upset about.” ?

John Mueller 1999?

Happiness: one of the most important indicators of human progress.

We now know that richer people within a country are happier.

Richer countries are happier.

People get happier as their countries get richer (which is happening).

Nations are happier when their people are in better health.

Nations are happier when their people are free to do what they wish with their lives.

Three other traits of national happiness: social support, generosity,?

and the perception of corruption.

On what principle is it, that when we see nothing but improvement?

behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?

???

Thomas Macaulay 1830?!!?

It is high time that everyone shifts from negative thinking to positive thinking.

Let us hope that the factual information you have just read will do the trick!

I publish The Good News Initiative on a daily basis. Everyone is welcome to read it, It can be found on LinkedIn.