Is there a human problem estimating project schedule activitiy durations?
Shane Forth FAPM FACostE MSc
Recognised for my lifetime contribution to project controls, I help 50 ECITB member companies develop the knowledge, skills and behaviours of their project controls people and many others in wider project team roles.
This is the first of a series of questions I will be asking for debate here on Linkedin.
All the questions in the series are from forums I have held in the past with some of my project controls peers.
To start each debate I will give a brief summary of the responses I received.
Here's the feedback I received on this question:
We suffer from terminal optimism in our industry … people want to give the right answer; there is an expectation from management
Project Managers are normally optimistic, the very nature is to build things quicker and cheaper
The pressure is to be optimistic and commit to a shorter duration
Whenever we do risk analysis, people are over optimistic
People tend towards optimism
You will not get a purely objective estimate from an individual
It is all subjective depends on the person on the day
Estimates seem to be under-estimated or over egged and it is trying to find that happy medium
Three people will look at the same thing and come up with three different answers
So what do you see happening most of the time - is there too much optimism? or does it just depend on the individual?
Recognised for my lifetime contribution to project controls, I help 50 ECITB member companies develop the knowledge, skills and behaviours of their project controls people and many others in wider project team roles.
3 年Good to see the debate beginning to gathering pace, thanks to Neil Corking Paul Harriman and John Jeffers for your insights. Look forward to some more contributions.
Happily Retired. Use LinkedIn to stay in touch with former colleagues & the world of work.
3 年Yes, the management of expectations is a challenge Shane, this often leads to unrealistic timelines for critical path items. When they overrun the cumulative effect is multiplied.
Planning & Resource Manager - Altrad Services U.K.
3 年No problem Shane, I hope your keeping well. UTB.
Planning & Resource Manager - Altrad Services U.K.
3 年Often the issue is that the activities in the programme for construction are at such detail ( level 3 ) that the manhours derived in the estimate often developed by discipline are not directly comparable as they are generated at an higher level, the only way to verify this is to undertake a manhour take off by iso for piping to get a like for like comparison but by time the isometrics are produced the programme has been produced and approved and is a contract document, that’s where a more subjective duration Estimate based on manhours per metreage or tonnes comes into play. For detailed design correlation between activities in the programme and the CTRs are a must, only once you understand the metrics or manhours by activity can you make an accurate assessment of the duration of that activity.