On Human Nature
J.M. Berger
Extremist ideologies, narratives, and propaganda. Author of four books, including "Extremism" (The MIT Press, 2018) and "Optimal" (2020). PhD in criminology from Swansea University School of Law.
I've been thinking a lot about human nature this week (and as part of my work for years before). Are people essentially good? Some weeks, many weeks, it's hard to think so.
The truth is that it's hard to dig down into the question because we live in complex webs of community. People who are kind and generous within one community can turn cruel and miserly when taken out of that context.
Some people can and do forge their own way when deciding the values they will live by, and most people do to some extent. But most of us are deeply influenced by the values of the communities in which we sit, our zones of consensus.
I talk about the gut check. When you don't know what's right, you ask someone you trust. Your community defines who you trust. You have agency, but people collectively tend to agree with the consensus views of their peers.
Now more than ever in history, you have the agency to choose community, unbounded by geography, class, even race. Not everyone consciously wields that power, but we all have it. The heyday of ham radio is past. Today we all carry multiple worlds in our pockets.
Except in very small groups, you don't access consensus directly. It's always mediated, usually by technology, and especially today.
I will likely be working on ways to map these pocket worlds and make sense of them, but for today, I think there are a few high-level observations that can help make sense of this moment.
1) Consensus zones determine what's true and false, but also what's right and wrong. Again, people have agency, and in many cases the content of these zones (cruelty) are readily apparent. But not always. Many people voted for Trump because of the cruelty. Not all of them.
2) Right-wing movements worldwide have mastered this zone structure far more than center and left movements. They have fostered it. There's not one right-wing information ecosystem, there are many, all marching toward the same goal, but each taking a different route.
3) Right-wing infrastructure feels like an open-world RPG with multiple points of entry and multiple branching paths once someone starts down that road. But those paths lead to destinations determined by the sponsors of the infrastructure. The range of outcomes is limited by design.
4) Right-wing movements have two major tactical advantages. A) They're not held back by truth. B) They're enabled by people with unimaginable money to build out a massive AAA infrastructure. X alone probably made enough of a difference to swing this election. But it's not just X.
The challenge, then, is to match the infrastructure, which will be difficult without the same access to capital, but not impossible, with the right combination of technical ideas and values-oriented content.
People are not lemmings, and you can only guide them so far, but they're not free-wheeling forces of nature either. Their information environment shapes them, and in large numbers, even weak tendencies can lead to big outcomes. We need to change the environment, not the message.
OK, I know this used to say "weekly" brief, and I know it's been a long time. Stay tuned for updated and more honest branding.
Support my work
This newsletter is free, but you can support it by purchasing and/or spreading the good word about my books. They include:
Optimal (2020) : A dystopian novel about a future world run by algorithms, but (surprise) it's really about human nature. Kirkus Reviews called it "gripping."
Extremism (2018) : As part of the MIT Press Essential Knowledge series, I give a brief introduction to extremism and the elements of extremist ideology.
ISIS: The State of Terror (2015, with Jessica Stern) : Still the definitive introduction to ISIS and its history through 2015.
Jihad Joe: Americans Who Go to War in the Name of Islam (2011): The definitive history of the American citizens who participated in jihadist wars and terrorist organizations from the 1970s through 2011.
Let the Game Do Its Work (2020) : A long essay/short monograph on my favorite genre of dystopia. As the Amazon listing says, it's not a whole book, and it's priced accordingly. If you buy this, don't be like some of the reviewers and post "Boo, this isn't a whole book." I KNOW, THAT'S WHAT THE LISTING SAYS.
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Computer Software Professional
2 周I agree that the media environment for the left is poor. The story in Slate about visiting Montana in order to watch as many ads as possible in the Tester-Sheehy race in 48 hours and how the ordinary people spoke in the same soundbites even if they claimed to ignore the ads was deeply scary. The Founders did not intend this to say the least. But that Harris did not communicate a sufficient reason to vote specifically for her to less educated voters can also be true.