Human-Centric Data (HCD) Insights #1 - how could HCD have helped on HS2?

This is the first of a series of insights related to the new field of Human-Centric Data (HCD). A short video is included at the end of this article if you would like to know more. The first insight identifies how HCD could have played a critical role in the early identification and resolution of issues in the HS2 project by providing real-time insights into team and stakeholder perceptions, decision-making dynamics, and emerging risks. This analysis is based on the report "So, What Went Wrong with HS2?" by Graham Winch at Alliance Manchester Business School. A link to his post and report is

"So, what went wrong with HS2?"

So here’s how we believe HCD could have made a difference. Your thoughts are welcomed:

1. Early Detection of Mismatch Between Strategic and Economic Cases

The HS2 project suffered from a fundamental mismatch between its strategic intent (capacity and regional growth) and its economic justification (primarily based on time savings). HCD could have provided:

• Early warning signals from stakeholders and project teams highlighting the disconnect.
• A more inclusive and transparent assessment of the perceived value of HS2 among decision-makers, helping to adjust the narrative before major budget commitments.

2. Identifying and Mitigating Overspecification Risks

HS2’s high-speed specification (360kph) and associated technical challenges led to inflated costs and complex engineering requirements. HCD could have:

• Captured team and expert sentiment on the feasibility and necessity of such specifications before they were locked in.
• Surfaced dissenting opinions anonymously, reducing groupthink and increasing openness to more cost-effective alternatives.

3. Addressing Schedule Compression Challenges

The HS2 schedule was compressed, with key decisions made without sufficient engineering validation, leading to cost overruns and delays. HCD could have:

• Measured psychological safety and openness to challenge, identifying whether teams felt pressured to agree to unrealistic timelines.
• Provided real-time feedback loops, enabling leadership to recognize the impact of aggressive scheduling and adjust accordingly.

4. Improving Commercial Strategy and Reducing Fragmentation

HS2’s commercial strategy led to fragmented design, contractor risk aversion, and increased costs. HCD could have:

• Highlighted inconsistencies in risk perceptions between government, project leadership, and contractors.
• Surfaced contractor concerns on cost and feasibility much earlier, leading to a more collaborative approach.

5. Strengthening Project Owner Capabilities

HS2 suffered from a lack of project owner capability, leading to weak governance and oversight. HCD could have:

• Measured confidence and alignment among project leaders and teams, identifying capability gaps.
• Flagged weak decision-making structures by analysing trends in team sentiment and stakeholder engagement.

6. Enhancing Transparency and Trust Among Stakeholders

One of the core issues with HS2 was the lack of trust between project teams, government bodies, and the public. HCD could have:

• Provided a mechanism for continuous stakeholder feedback, ensuring concerns were addressed in real-time.
• Reduced perception gaps by aligning different levels of governance and leadership using comparative data.

7. Early Warnings on Budget and Risk Escalation

Budget and schedule overruns were largely predictable but ignored. HCD could have:

• Captured weak signals of emerging risks, allowing for proactive mitigation.
• Provided trend analysis on confidence levels among delivery teams, indicating potential trouble spots.

Conclusion

If HCD had been implemented early in HS2, it could have:

? Identified the disconnect between strategic objectives and economic justifications.

? Surfaced concerns about over-specification before major commitments were made.

? Prevented aggressive scheduling from driving budget escalation.

? Improved commercial and governance strategies through real-time feedback.

? Fostered greater transparency and collaboration, reducing political and stakeholder tensions.

HCD is a powerful early warning system that captures the human factors behind decision-making, enabling more adaptive, informed, and proactive project management. Given its proven value in complex infrastructure projects, we believe it should be a fundamental tool in future megaproject governance. For more information you can view the short video below which identifies the 5 core principles at the heart of the approach or view it on YouTube at https://youtu.be/3onZEHO00Ys

#humancentricdata #hcd

Jonathan Norman, FRSA, FAPM Stuart Harrison Peter Tandlich Kelvin McGrath