A Huge Course Correction on College Enrollment

?? The correction on college enrollment; rethinking how colleges prepare students for jobs; and a red flag for college finances. These are excerpts from my newsletter, Next. To get the full version in the future, sign up here.

EVENTS

The "Next Office Hour," my regular webinar series, returns for 2025 with two free virtual events in February.?

1?? On Thursday, February 20 at 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT, we'll talk about higher ed’s strategy for AI in the year ahead with a president and a CIO.?

I’ll have separate conversations with:

• Joseph Aoun, President of Northeastern University and author of Robot-Proof: Higher Education in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.
• Lev Gonick, Chief Information Officer at Arizona State University

???Register now to join us live and to get an on-demand recording afterwards for free (Support from Workday)

2?? On Tuesday, February 18, at 7 p.m. ET/ 4 p.m. PT, I'll be in conversation with the authors of the new book, The Disengaged Teen: Helping Kids Learn Better, Feel Better, and Live Better, Jenny Anderson and Rebecca Winthrop.

?? Register now to join us live and have a chance to get a free copy of the book.

THE LEAD

The National Student Clearinghouse for years was an obscure organization largely responsible for helping colleges and universities understand who was enrolled and where, mostly for the purposes of tracking student loans.?

When Rick Torres came into the job in 2008 as CEO of the Clearinghouse, he realized the organization was sitting on a treasure trove of data from colleges that sent them detailed enrollment figures on every student—whether they had a loan or not. This was also a time when there was interest in establishing a so-called unit-record law on Capitol Hill that would allow the federal government to better track students through college, and eventually connect that record to their outcomes after graduation.?

I first met Torres in 2013, after the publication of my first book, College (Un)Bound, when he asked me to speak to the Clearinghouse’s board. We immediately bonded over our shared love of the New York Yankees. In a way, Torres, who came from the business world, saw the Clearinghouse becoming the Yankees—a much bigger player in the world of higher ed.??

Last decade, Torres established the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Its reports on enrollment immediately became a go-to source for researchers and journalists because they were more timely than the federal government, which released data a full academic year after enrollment.?

As Torres recently told Inside Higher Ed’s Liam Knox, the fact that the research center included part-time students while the federal government didn’t was a “huge change.” When one of the center’s reports showed that some half of bachelor degree recipients had at one point attended a community college that was “eye-popping,” Torres said, and “really catalyzed a lot of thinking about transfer pathways” as it became clear that students swirled through higher ed instead of followed a straight path.

The fact that the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center included part-time students while the federal government didn’t was a “huge change.”

During the pandemic, the research center’s prominence grew significantly as it put out more frequent enrollment reports. Suddenly, its numbers were being quoted in the New York Times and on CNN to illustrate what was happening in real-time with campuses closed.?

Those early looks at enrollment in the first weeks of the fall semester didn’t end when the pandemic did. The problem was that they were based on preliminary data because not all colleges follow the same academic calendar, nor do they conduct a census of their students at the same time.??

The result is that unknown to researchers, a statistical mistake got introduced into their analysis that only grew over time.

By last fall, this error with how the research center counted dual-enrolled high school students caused the model to fail. But researchers didn’t notice until well after the headlines pronounced a big drop in freshman enrollment.?

??? The Guardian: College enrollment is falling at a ‘concerning rate’

?? The New York Times: Freshman Enrollment Appears to Decline for the First Time Since 2020

??? The Washington Post: Colleges enrolled fewer freshmen, first decline since the pandemic

I had written about the report in Next, and my piece was later excerpted in The Chronicle of Higher Education. Last week, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center issued a mea culpa on that report from the fall. The error that had been growing over time had finally been discovered.?

This past week, the mistake was punctuated when the research center issued its enrollment report for the fall. It turns out that freshmen enrollment didn’t drop 5% last fall after all. In fact, it increased by 5.5%, up 130,000 students from the previous year.?

“We feel far more confident” in these numbers, Doug Shapiro, executive director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, told reporters on a conference call this on Wednesday.

Take away the error for a minute, the wild swing in enrollment is still notable.

At a time when the narrative about higher ed is one of decline, freshmen enrollment increased. Not only that, overall enrollment has reached its highest levels since before the pandemic.?

When a reporter asked Shapiro for his theory about why the suddenly rosy picture about college enrollment, he didn’t have any definitive answers.?

Still, he speculated that a significant change in how the federal government awarded financial aid last year through a new Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) meant that a larger percentage of students who completed the form were eligible for aid. That difference might have been enough to compensate for a smaller number of families who filed a FAFSA (which was originally blamed for the supposed falloff in enrollment).?

?? Before college leaders celebrate, however, there are plenty of signals in the latest report of shifting consumer preferences, with students:

• Starting at a community college. Year-over-year growth in first-year students at two-year colleges was up 7.1%.
• Taking time off before starting college. Perhaps this is the long tail of Covid, but the number of freshmen ages 21 to 24 increased by 16.7%, and those 25 and older grew by 19.7%
• Favoring shorter programs. Enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs was up almost 10% in one year – and nearly 30 percent since 2019.
• Prioritizing hands-on learning. Two-year colleges with a significant vocational focus saw their enrollment jump some 14%.

Three other key findings from the report:

1?? Graduate enrollment. What pushed the overall number above pre-pandemic levels was graduate enrollment, which increased 3.3%. Undergraduate enrollment is still 1% below 2019.

2?? Don’t count the Northeast out yet. Enrollment increased across all regions, including a notable 4.7% rise in the Northeast, its first increase since the pandemic.

3?? Not checking the box. Black and Hispanic enrollment each grew 6.8%; white enrollment increased 1%, its first rise since 2019. Those numbers could be much higher. We don’t know because freshmen who declined to report their race last fall increased 50% from the previous fall.

In his interview with Inside Higher Ed, Torres seemed to indicate that the preliminary enrollment reports, which are popular among headline-hungry journalists, might now be a thing of the past. But that won’t be his decision to make: Torres is hanging up his cleats next month and retiring, just in time for pitchers and catchers to report to their spring training camps.??

The New Career College?

Higher ed needs to move beyond viewing career preparation as an extra and instead integrate it throughout the college experience, according to Michael Horn, in a wide-ranging discussion we had about his new book on the latest Future U. podcast. ?

What's happening: About 1 billion people worldwide switch jobs annually, Horn found in his new book, Job Moves, that he co-authored with Ethan Bernstein and Bob Moesta.

• Students need to shift from "being hired" to "hiring their next job,” Horn said, taking active ownership of their career paths
• Traditional career paths are breaking down. The "4-and-44" model (4 years college + 44-year career) is obsolete.
• The "career ladder" is dead. Career progression looks different from how employers traditionally view it. People aren't climbing rungs; they're building portfolios of experiences.
• Networks matter more than ever. Before AI screening, 70% of jobs were filled through networks. With AI now screening resumes and candidates using AI to apply, employers are relying even more on trusted referrals.

What this means for higher ed: Colleges and universities must adapt to the changing needs of students and the workforce, Horn said. This includes integrating work-based learning experiences into curricula, providing career counseling that emphasizes self-reflection and proactive job searching, and offering programs that help individuals navigate career transitions.

• Prototype: Just as students should explore different majors and colleges before committing, job seekers should "prototype" potential jobs through internships, job shadowing, and informational interviews. This allows them to gain firsthand experience and make informed decisions.
• Networking: In today's job market, networking is more critical than ever. Colleges and universities need to prioritize teaching students how to build and leverage their networks effectively.
• Continuous learning: Skills depreciate quickly, so individuals must commit to ongoing learning and development throughout their careers. Higher education institutions should offer flexible, modular programs that cater to the needs of both traditional and adult learners.

Bonus: Michael and I also talked about our writing processes, and whether we are planners or plungers. Give a listen to hear what that means and hear our writing hacks.

?? Listen to the full episode here and subscribe to Future U.

A MESSAGE FROM GROWN & FLOWN

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SUPPLEMENTS

?? Speaking of Jobs. More than two-thirds of this year’s “Jobs on the Rise” didn’t even exist 20 years ago. (LinkedIn)

?? Price-Fixing Bills Come Due. Johns Hopkins and Caltech just settled in a massive financial aid antitrust case, bringing total settlements to nearly $320M from the original 17 elite schools accused. Only five haven't settled, while all deny wrongdoing. The lawsuit alleged schools violated an antitrust exemption allowing aid coordination only if they were truly need-blind, but recent court filings in the case revealed Georgetown University maintained a list of about 80 applicants based on family wealth and donations, not academic credentials. (Higher Ed Dive)

?? Dipping Into the Endowment. In my forthcoming book, I have a chapter about whether colleges have the financial wherewithal to invest in you as a student. One red flag is taking a lot more from their endowment year after year to pay for operations, much like Albright College in Pennsylvania just asked a court’s permission to do in order to close a $20 million deficit. Albright won approval last month to borrow as much as $25 million from its $65-million endowment (Spotlight PA)

Until next time, Cheers — Jeff??

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