HS2: underdeveloped; under the microscope; under the cosh!

Insufficient or underdeveloped #infrastructure presents one of the biggest obstacles for #economicgrowth and social development worldwide.

Infrastructure projects are high on government agendas, and the global infrastructure-development and investment pipeline is potentially huge (take, for example, America's bipartisan infrastructure deal, which aims to rebuild America's #roads, #bridges, and #railways, provide high-speed internet, and increase access to clean water, amongst other things).

However, everybody knows major infrastructure projects are historically problematic: cost overruns, delays, failed procurement, funding challenges, and political issues to name a few.

Most in the infrastructure industry are familiar with the "iron law of megaprojects" and Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg data on this is frequently cited:

? 47.9% are delivered on budget

? 8.5% are delivered on budget and on time

? 0.5% are delivered on budget, on time, and with the projected benefits.

(More in this WSJ article: https://lnkd.in/eGMssa_f )

We don't have to look much further than HS2 (High Speed Two) Ltd for a modern example of a major infrastructure project that has been beset by challenges.

The #HS2 rail line is facing further cuts to its route north of Birmingham as the government considers whether it can afford high-cost projects ahead of the #autumnbudget.

The government announced in March that construction on parts of HS2 would be put on hold for two years and the overall timetable would be delayed, meaning trains to Manchester would not arrive until almost a decade later than originally promised.

While 10 Downing Street says the government is “committed to HS2”, according to recent reports a spokesperson for the PM, under repeated questioning at a briefing last Thursday, would not confirm that HS2 would extend to #Manchester.

We know that the Holy Grail of #productivity are #investment, #innovation, and #infrastructure, which is crucial for national and regional #economicgrowth - and investment in #rail is a critical element of the government's strategy for UK plc.

In this article I wrote in December 2022 I referred to a paper published by 英国伦敦大学学院 in the Project Management Journal suggesting that what is missing in current research is an understanding of mega projects as a complete #system. This seems also to be true of the political leaders charged with making decisions related to these major infrastructure projects.

I understand entirely that difficult decisions must be made by politicians and ministers regarding public services and investment of #taxpayer dollars, but the current problems resulting from the use of RAAC concrete in school buildings should serve as a very real reminder of the consequences of short-sighted government investment strategies, and of what happens when the can is kicked down the road.

Most government policies are delivered through major #projects and complex programmes which makes it even more important for them to be delivered successfully in order to realise their intended #benefits for taxpayers.

We can't ignore the fact that HS2 has been been given a "red" rating for its first two phases - from London to Birmingham then onto Crewe - by the Infrastructure and Projects Authority (IPA) - inferring that "successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable."

The rating also means there are "major issues with project definition, #schedule, #budget, #quality and/or #benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable" (although it's worth noting that the phase of the project running from Crewe to Manchester was given an "amber" rating, suggesting that successful delivery of the project "appears feasible", but that "significant issues exist").

One key consideration must be the realisation of the proposed benefits of the programme. The UK Cabinet Office definition of #benefitsmanagement is: "the measurable improvement resulting from an outcome perceived as an advantage by one or more #stakeholders, which contributes towards one or more organisational objectives".?

I think the key is to acknowledge that the improvements must result from the change, they are not 'the change itself'. HS2's benefits therefore should create the link between tangible project/programme outputs and government strategic objectives.

If active and effective benefits management demonstrate the reasons why a project should be undertaken, then perhaps project success should not only be measured by the delivery of outputs to #time, #cost, and #quality but also by the positive, measurable improvements they have delivered for #stakeholders.

So, whilst HS2 is over budget and over schedule, it's worth noting that Crossrail was considerably delayed and almost ￡4billion over budget, but is boosting capacity, cutting journey times, and adding an estimated ￡42bn to the UK economy (Greater London Authority).

HS2's Full Business Case, which was prepared prior to the outbreak of #coronavirus, sets out the rationale for the first section of the HS2 Scheme between the West Midlands and London (FBC HS2 Phase One).

It also recognises that Phase One is not a standalone project and that the FBC has been prepared on the basis that future phases of the scheme (2a and 2b) proceed using current designs. The same document refers to HS2 being a catalyst for wider growth and notes its key role in #levellingup the economies of the midlands and the North, which is long overdue.

However, it will be difficult for this to be the case if the the Manchester leg of HS2 follows the #Leeds branch into the long grass.

Notwithstanding what the final decision is, the most unhelpful thing the government could do is drag its feet in communicating that decision - not only for passengers, but also for the construction industry and supply chain. And that remains true no matter who is in Government. . .

According to BBC News a blueprint for Labour's potential policies at the next general election - seen by the #BBC - says the party would "deliver Northern Powerhouse Rail and HS2 in full, unlocking billions in economic growth, creating jobs, slashing journey times and increasing capacity".

However, speaking to Laura Kuenssberg today, Labour's campaign co-ordinator Pat McFadden declined to commit to building the HS2 rail line in full, due to uncertainty over the costs.?

Notwithstanding the future of HS2, if the government is truly committed to levelling up and improving rail travel in the North, it must continue to invest in programmes like the The Transpennine Route Upgrade (TRU) - a transformative, multi-billion pound rail investment programme that will better connect passengers in the North between Manchester and York, via Leeds and Huddersfield, by transforming the Trans Pennine main line into a high-performing, reliable railway, bringing more frequent, more reliable, faster, greener trains to the north.

This is so important, and the recent partnership between Network Rail and Transport for Greater Manchester (TfGM) is another great example of the opportunities that can be unlocked by creating better-connected cities.

The partnership is expected to play a key part in delivering Greater Manchester’s vision for an #integrated public #transport system, including integration of local rail services by 2030.

We know the best and most effective way to draw #passengers back to rail (and keep them using it) - in turn contributing to key national priorities such as #decarbonisation, economic growth, and financial #sustainability - is to provide them with a rail network that meets their needs: frequent, comfortable, reliable, affordable services, that are simple to navigate.

The only way to achieve this is through an ambitious, long-term, joined up strategy, backed by a government with a clear vision for a UK fit for the future!

Delivering on the Integrated Rail Plan for the North and Midlands wouldn't be a bad place to start!

Andy Murray Prof. (Dr) Anusha Shah John Johnson Msc RPP Dr Jo Jolly Badr Burshaid ??? ?????? Carol Deveney MAPM Elizabeth Harrin FAPM Freda Quinlan Grant Shapps Hayaatun Sillem Henri Murison Harj Dhaliwal Ian Edwards Karlene Agard MSc (Oxon) Karina Singh Jonathan Norman, FRSA, FAPM Juliano Denicol Diane Taylor-Cummings Dr. Sonia Zahiroddiny Vip Vyas Sarj Gaffoor Nina Lockwood Michael Peter Martin Paver Prof (Dr) Adam Boddison OBE Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg Philip Hoare Paul Barnett Ricardo Viana Vargas, Ph.D. Robert Cairns Tallulah C. Yasmin Garcia-Sterling AFHEA AIWFM Project Management Institute Association for Project Management Major Projects Association