HR Leaders Can’t Ignore These 5 Trends in 2024

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When it comes to the 2024 outlook for businesses — and for the people who power them — one thing’s for sure: uncertainty.?

The economic picture is cloudy, and with two wars raging, the geopolitical situation looks dire. A bitter US election campaign will only up the ante. Throw in accelerated technological change, and 2024 is shaping up to be a year of unknowns.?

That means the other sure bet is efficiencies. In the face of all this uncertainty, companies will prioritize finding ways to do more with existing resources. And for most companies, the biggest item on their balance sheets is people. Next year, organizations will face more questions about how people drive results for the business, and there will be more pressure on managers to show those results.

With an eye to meeting both challenges, here are five key trends in HR for 2024.

WFH vs. RTO: What’s really more productive??

Yes, the debate over working from home versus returning to the office is still raging. But there’s a growing consensus that office hours are time well spent. A stronger culture, better collaboration and a shared sense of purpose are just three potential benefits.?

And for many employees, RTO is no biggie. In a recent poll of almost 6,000 US workers, more than half of remote-capable respondents said they expected hybrid to be the predominant work setup from now on. Meanwhile, despite resistance in some quarters, 90% of employers in another survey said staff will head back to the office by the end of 2024.

?But as companies face pushback, they need a strong “why” for whatever work arrangement they choose. What setup is truly the most productive? What’s best for retaining people? Which teams function better distributed, and which ones need to collaborate in person?

?This is where data is critical. The right analytics tools can highlight the correlation between different work setups, employee engagement and business results. Armed with that information, HR leaders and people managers can determine what works and what doesn’t.?

?The bottom line: By measuring the real impact of hybrid and remote work, companies can create models that best suit their business needs — just as importantly — share the business case with employees to generate buy-in.

?AI changes HR for the better

AI is not only transforming the job landscape, it’s changing the nature of HR. Next year, expect to see more HR functions and analysis subsumed by smart tools. This extends beyond routine administrative tasks and embraces more advanced functions traditionally performed by HR analysts — from assessing team productivity to identifying flight risks.??

The real promise of AI is the ability to tap into and crunch rich data that’s already being gathered. In our digital world, we gather a wealth of information on everything from sick days to who’s scheduling meetings with whom and even which employees are true “water carriers” for their companies. The right AI tools make it possible to analyze and to access insights on demand, without special technical skills.?

Importantly, this frees up HR people to do more true HR work. In a survey of professionals who use generative AI for HR tasks, 56% of respondents said they’ve deployed it to automate routine processes. Rather than spend their days on repetitive admin and back-office tasks, HR team members can focus on the vital job of cultivating and uplifting people.?

Managers stop relying on the gut-check (it’s about time)

When we have a question, we Google it. Shouldn’t people managers do the same in 2024?

Consider the questions swirling around the typical manager’s brain. Who’s likely to resign? Who’s due for a promotion? What raise should I give this person??

In the past, clear answers weren’t readily available, leaving managers to fly blind and make decisions based on gut instinct. The data may have been out there, but it was a messy affair, often scattered across multiple systems. There’s also been a cultural bias against sharing performance data with frontline managers.?

But that’s quickly changing. Businesses are embracing solutions like smart compensation tools for determining raises. By knowing what everyone gets paid versus colleagues and the industry standard, managers can banish bias from the equation and meet employees’ growing demands for pay transparency.

Across an organization, the financial rewards of democratizing people data for managers are substantial. At a business with 10,000 employees, putting data into the hands of frontline managers can achieve almost $400 million in cost savings and $200 million in revenue expansion, research shows.?

The new reality: Skills trump roles

AI is rapidly speeding up the pace at which some workplace roles become obsolete and new ones emerge. Staying on top of that shift calls for reconceiving employees — so they have a basket of pliable skills rather than a fixed, specific role.?

For example, it might be easy to simply “write off” a retail clerk replaced by automated checkout technology. But a skills-based approach would stress the employee’s underlying aptitudes — customer relations, product knowledge, marketing and merchandising — and ask how those might be applied in new settings, from training AI agents to supporting quality assurance.?

The payoff for adopting a skills-based mindset next year? Companies keep the talent they’ve already cultivated, generating loyalty and buy-in, and avoid the time and expense of continually re-hiring. Overall, skills-led organizations are 63% more likely to achieve business results and workforce outcomes and 57% more likely to anticipate change and respond efficiently.

But to realize such efficiencies, businesses must accurately map and catalog skills, both what they have and what they need. This is where skills intelligence tech can turn insight into action. The right tools enable managers to stay ahead of the massive changes roiling the workplace, while also helping team members map and fulfill their own career ambitions.

For DEI and ESG, the rubber hits the road

These are trying times for anyone working in diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI). The same goes for those spearheading environmental, social and governance (ESG) efforts. Not only is there a backlash against DEI and ESG, but companies are tightening their belts. Leadership wants to see the ROI from these initiatives.

We know that DEI reaps dividends. Companies with greater gender diversity are 21% more likely to outperform financially, while ethnically diverse organizations are 35% more likely to do the same, according to one study. The key to showing DEI’s value? Finding ways to tie together people and business data.

This means looking beyond simple demographic breakdowns and focusing instead on how diversity drives results. Organizational network analysis, for instance, can show who’s getting invited to meetings, who’s emailing whom and who’s involved in key decisions. Mapping that data onto business results like revenue, retention and customer satisfaction helps connect the dots between DEI or ESG initiatives and performance.??

A common denominator across HR trends in an uncertain 2024 will be linking people with business results. Against a backdrop of belt-tightening, if you don’t make that people impact connection, decision makers will stop listening, leaving HR without a seat at the table.

Thanks for reading! I'd love to hear what you’re seeing in your own industry, so please share your thoughts into the comments below. For more news and ideas around people data in the workplace, be sure to subscribe.

(A version of this post originally appeared in Forbes).