However you feel about the election result you’ve woken up to, it should awaken you to the need for reform of our electoral system.

This isn’t a party-political post, although I will declare one interest: I abhor pretty much everything that Reform UK stands for – or at least what I think I’ve managed to distil as actual policy positions from a lot of bile-fuelled rhetoric.

On BBC R4 Today this morning, Richard Tice chose to single out the Lib Dems as a party that should feel very bad about the fact that they had secured fewer votes than Reform UK but had won many, many more seats. Interesting choice to target a party that has consistently campaigned for a more proportional voting system, and in this election got the most proportionate result of all parties winning 11% of the seats from 12% of the national vote.

But, he does have a point. Reform and the Green party should have more seats, reflecting their share of the national vote. They should have a national voice and influence that reflects the level of support they have in the country. Given my declared opposition to Reform UK, you might find it surprising that I think this… that I might see advantage in a system that limits the impact of polarising influences? I will always argue that proper exposure to the light of any political ideology will make for a better politics and a better country; some will think that Reform could make a real impact in parliament, while my personal view is that some real accountability would expose the truth behind the mask and reduce its popular support almost as quickly as it has risen. Whether I’m right or other people are, shouldn’t the people decide who gets heard?

Labour voters should feel most satisfied with the result, shouldn’t they? Well, yes, with 412 seats they have an 86-seat majority and c. 63% of the seats in Parliament. A strong mandate for change, right? They should certainly be able to make a real impact over a 5-year term with a settled parliamentary majority. But they won this with only 33.7% of the national vote. This landslide is being compared to 1997. But, then they won 418 seats with 43.2% of the national vote. In 2019 the Conservatives won a sizeable enough seat majority (365 seats, 56%) with 43.6% of the national vote. In 2024, Labour have a big majority in parliament, but most of their constituency majorities are much smaller than in 1997 or are over what is currently a split vote that if it coalesced could heavily impact it’s electoral chances in 2029. That is exactly what Reform are aiming to do.

Conservative supporters have a right to feel aggrieved that their party secured only 19% of seats from 23.7% of the national vote. It’s worth considering when the media claims that the Conservatives have had a disastrous election that they still secured nearly 1 in 4 votes nationally. The party will turn in on itself trying to work out where it went wrong (probably for longer than the shelf-life of a lettuce) and how it moves forward.

If the result had been truly proportional, then Labour would have 214 seats (not a majority) and the Tories would have another 28 seats at 149. Reform would have had 91 seats. The Lib Dems would have 72 seats (just one more than they got!), the Green party 45 seats. No party would have had a majority, and even in this configuration it would have taken multiple parties in some form of coalition to secure a working majority. Conservatives and Reform couldn’t have done it (total 240), but at 331 Labour, Lib Dems and Greens could have done, representing 53% of the nation.

Some people would say that makes for unstable government. Does the 2010-2015 period of our country’s government look stable or unstable compared with the 2015-2024 period? More importantly, the problem with these discussions is that - in reality - this whole thing is an MC Escher closed-loop waterfall. If we had a more proportional system, would the national vote share have been what it was yesterday? No. Categorically and emphatically no. Strategic campaigning choices, and tactical voting, have a huge impact on how people vote in our current system. The media has been full of how people have as much voted against something in 2024 as they have voted for someone. So, we get an unrepresentative government from an unrepresentative set of voting… and even the winners should be looking over their shoulder.

Labour achieved just +1.6% increase in their share of the vote since 2019, but have secured 211 more seats, representing +32% of parliamentary seats. They have a much more fragile grip on power than it appears.

It’s definitely time for change… to our voting system as much as the country.