Howard Marks on Avoiding Pitfalls
“When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they’re the first thing I open and read. I always learn something, and that goes double for his book.” -Warren Buffett
This is a series of posts exploring the investment philosophy of Howard Marks, as detailed in his book The Most Important Thing. Marks has discovered eighteen “most important things,” which will all be summarized on this blog.
The Most Important Thing is… Avoiding Pitfalls
“An investor needs do very few things right as long as he avoids big mistakes.” -Warren Buffett
The financial crisis of 2008 was the result of never-before-seen events (a nationwide decline in home prices) colliding with risky, levered structures that weren’t engineered to withstand them. Investors were much more concerned about missing out than they were about losing money.
Here are some lessons that we ought to learn from a crisis…
- Too much capital availability makes money flow to the wrong places
- When capital goes where it shouldn’t, bad things happen
- When capital is in oversupply, investors compete for deals by accepting low returns and a slender margin for error (asset prices rise)
- Widespread disregard for risk creates great risk
- Inadequate due diligence leads to investment losses
- Capital is devoted to innovative investments, many of which fail the test of time
- Hidden fault lines running through portfolios can make the prices of seemingly unrelated assets move in tandem
- Psychological and technical factors can swamp fundamentals in the short-run
- Markets change, invalidating models
- Leverage magnifies outcomes but doesn’t add value
- Excesses correct
What is today’s mistake and how might you avoid it?