How to win the RESTART Marathon by putting PEOPLE FIRST (Part 2)

Timing your RESTART with PEOPLE in Mind 

Peter R. Classen, Christine Zdelar - May 14th, 2020

Part 2 Highlights: 

• Being situationally aware, in the fullest and most modern sense of the term, is the starting point for timing one’s restart.  Situation awareness (SA) when applied to business, is the understanding of environmental factors and events in a business’ operating context. It also means understanding the current state and capacity of one’s workforce.
• To answer the question “What should be the TIMING of my RESTART?” a leader must be Situationally Aware and have an excellent understanding of not only the EXTERNAL MARKET & BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT forces their organization must address, but also the INTERNAL FORCE - namely, the HEALTH AND CAPACITY of their EMPLOYEES - that determine what is going to be even possible.    
• What one must do to assess employee health & wellbeing is both simple and hard. The best practice is to ensure you’re asking the right questions about the state of your employees while acknowledging that how you use the information will require a nuanced approach. 

“We just don’t know what’s going to happen” was the closing statement yet again, as everyone nodded on the Zoom call,  the topic of discussion shifting away from what the next three months would look like to a recap of today’s immediate tasks. This is just as they had always done over the past 8 weeks.  Some might say that focusing on what’s immediately in front of you is exactly how you should be thinking and working right now. That might be true for most people - employees and even managers - but not for leadership. Employees and managers can very well be allowed to operate in an activity trap given the situation today. It is probably a very safe place for many of them to work.  

An activity trap is in normal times, a “tyranny of the mundane.” It includes the trivial issues, irritations, requests, and routine activities that eat up time and resources. Today, given how many of us are emotionally, socially, or economically compromised (65% - 75% by one estimate), the mundane may be all we can actually handle as individuals. However, some significant issues arise when everyone in an organization becomes so busy with activities that everyone forgets what we are supposed to achieve.

What is the purpose of leadership today but to do one thing: predict the future. Leadership is paid the big bucks because they need to visualize what is going to happen in a week, a month, and a year from now. Once they have made their big bet, two things can get done: the organization can respond appropriately to the crisis and they can plan and time their recoveries. Models can be made, different scenarios can be tested, and the machine can get back to work. All this works if leaders can predict the future. 

Standing where we are today, the phrase “we just don’t know what’s going to happen” is getting in the way of restarts and recoveries.  No one should blame leadership - a pandemic wasn’t on anyone’s radar as something remotely probable when 2020 strategic plans were written in Q4, 2019.  Yet, here we are. If an organization wants to plan and time their restart well, and to do so with people in mind, then they will need to know where they are and predict where they are going to be. That is leadership’s job. 

If an organization wants to plan and time their RESTART well, and to do so with people in mind, then they will need to know where they are and predict where they are going to be.   

Let’s not throw our leaders under the proverbial bus just yet. They are, after all, human. What tools and perspectives can we share that can make the job of predicting (or guessing) a bit easier during this unprecedented time? Quite a lot actually. So let’s get started. 

Being situationally aware, in the fullest and most modern sense of the term, is the best starting point for timing one’s restart (no pun intended).  Situation awareness when applied to business, is the understanding of environmental factors and events in a business’ operating context. We see the factors and events as variables, changing over time, and exerting a force on our industry and our marketplaces.  To speak plainly, in order to be thought of as situationally aware, a leader must know what is going on with consumers, their customers, their competition, and their business environment as a whole. They recognize important events - big and small, direct and indirect - and comprehend the significance of each.  Leaders use their analytical horsepower to make sense of all the facts they are bombarded with and use their proprietary data to create a vision of their organization’s and market’s future status. This is what we meant by “predict the future.”  Being situationally aware allows leaders to guess well about what is going to happen in a week, a month, and a year from now.  It is a very useful skill to have. 

If we talk however about the fullest and newest sense of being situationally aware, we need to add another major dimension. Today’s situationally aware leaders are also mindful leaders. They are skilled at mindfulness; a mental state achieved by focusing one's awareness on the present moment, while calmly acknowledging and accepting one's feelings, thoughts, and experiences, and the feelings, thoughts, and physical experiences of others. In plain language, it is being “in tune” with their organization’s heartbeat, their people, and their people’s situations. A business leader competent in studying situations and predicting the future would have a distinct advantage in being able to plan and time their restart. (Additional reading on Situational Awareness + Mindfulness may be found in Grahampton’s four-part article on “Leading in the COVID-19 Crisis: Mindfulness, a Secret Weapon for High-impact Team Leaders.”)

If getting the plan and the timing of the restart right is important to an organization, we believe having leaders that understand the current situation is a prerequisite. 

So where are we? 

Three weeks before announcements were made on the night of Thursday, January 30th warning U.S. businesses of the pending economic disruption, there were teams hard at work, analyzing data, predicting the future, and even thinking about the restart. How could they have known? The answer is probably as simple as they knew because either a) they have lived and worked through such cataclysms before or b) they were experts in the field of leading during times of crisis and could see well into the future. 

If we could sit with such people and have an open and frank conversation, here is what we might be able to learn about our current situation (as of May 12, 2020):

• The world is at the early stage of a rapid onset natural disaster that will take 2 to 5 years to play out. 
• The coronavirus infects the body via a receptor called the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, or ACE2.  ACE2 receptors are prevalent in the lungs, hence the respiratory symptoms, but they’re in the heart, blood vessels and the brain, too.
• Humans have no natural immunity to the disease and most national planners are assuming a 70% general population infection rate if no vaccine is found. At somewhere between 2% and 10% infection rates, we have a ways to go. 
• A good deal of how the virus affects the human body is still unknown, but it is worse than researchers first thought. The US with the largest number of cases, has a rich dataset to study, and should become the world leader in the research and analysis of the virus’ impact. 
• While $10.4 billion has been pledged to create a vaccine ($2.4 US, $8.0 other), the smartest of the pandemic forecasters are convinced it will be a 12 to 18-month process before a vaccine becomes available. (Brookings and Gates Foundation). 
• Even finding a Covid-19 vaccine will not be enough to end the pandemic. The volume of vaccine available in coming years is expected to fall far short of global demand.  The number of people at risk will be in the hundreds of millions for years.
• The need for supportive therapies,including equipment (e.g. ventilators,) is growing exponentially at around 500% in 2020. At present, less than 10% of world demand is being met - though this is really just a guess. 
• The Case Fatality Rate varies widely right now (May 11, 2020) from country to country - from 16.29% in Belgium to a low of 0.09% in Singapore - owing to the lack of equipment and the speed of intervention. The national experience with Covid-19 around the world is very different and very deadly for some. 
• The scope of the disaster includes health, social and economic impacts. The impacts are interconnected, though with past pandemics as a guide, about 60% of the total cost comes from self-imposed preventative measures (i.e. lock-downs). When all costs are quantified and tallied, the current estimated cost of the pandemic is around $2.7 trillion (Bloomberg).

In the United States:

• The lack of a coordinated and rigorous national pandemic response will not translate into a smoothly flattened curve but 50 disjointed curves with spikes and troughs that extend well through the summer, and most likely into next year. National restart planning is, therefore, extremely complicated.
• About four in ten adults (37.6%) ages 18 and older in the U.S. (92.6 million people) have a higher risk of developing serious illness if they become infected with coronavirus, due to their older age (65 and older) or health condition (KFF, Kaiser Family Foundation)
• Just over half of those at higher risk of developing a serious illness are ages 65 and older (55.2% or 51.1 million adults); however, the remaining 41.4 million adults ages 18-64 are at risk due to an underlying medical condition. (KFF)
• It is safe to assume at least 20%, and maybe as much as 30% of the national workforce is at a higher risk of serious illness. 
• While it is not clear how high the unemployment rate will climb (25% being the approximate median forecast), it is much more clear how deeply impacted the national workforce is: 55% say they have lost a job or income since February. (KFF)
• Loss of income is a major problem for 41% of households, 29% report falling behind on bills or not being able to afford necessities. (KFF)
• 56% of U.S. adults report that worry or stress related to the coronavirus outbreak has caused them to experience at least one negative effect on their mental health and wellbeing, such as problems with sleeping or eating, increased alcohol use, or worsening chronic conditions. (KFF)
• In certain sectors, the mental health trauma forecasts are rather shocking; 40% of front-line healthcare workers displaying Acute Stress Disorder (ASD) symptoms already, a precursor to Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).  (H Hospital News, Canada) 
• Bottom line: The virus is still spreading. In the U.S., no one State is ahead of the curve and most are just hanging on. No nation is yet directing the wave, they are all riding it. 

What will happen in your Industry?

That’s a great question. We cannot answer that but we can provide an excellent outline for asking yourself more detailed questions. When combined, your answers may give you the insight you need to predict the future with more clarity and authority.  

Business Environment Analysis

What is happening now, and in the near future and next year in the Political, Economic, Societal, Technological, Environmental, and Legal/Regulatory spaces?  Include in your thinking on societal issues, questioning how will the pandemic unfold.

Customer Analysis

Similarly, what is happening to customers now, and in the near term, and again, next year? Consider each customer segment, its current usage and attitude, their changing motivations and preferences, and any emerging unmet needs. 

Competitive Analysis

As with the previous areas, what will happen to each strategic competitive group, their performance, their objectives, strategies, culture, and global considerations? Who will survive? Who won’t? What are the competitive strengths needed to survive?  

Market Analysis

Consider changes in size, projected growth, entry barriers, distribution systems, trends, and key success factors of the future.

Lastly, with all this, what exactly are the opportunities, threats and the remaining strategic questions that need to be answered?

And last but not least, Employee Analysis

There is no RESTART without engaged, capable and healthy (mentally and physically) employees turning their focus away from sustaining and surviving, to restarting and reactivating. 

There are many, many questions leaders need to ask and answer relating to the wellbeing of their employees. But before addressing seating plans or temperature screenings, the more important questions relate to how your employees are feeling right NOW. Remember, the best RESTARTS are a product of the best RESPONSES. 

So, when was the last time you took a measured, targeted pulse-check of your team? Are managers doing more than simply asking “how are you?” during their weekly 1:1’s?

Odds are, as leaders, we are probably making assumptions about the state of our employees at home that are not grounded in evidence. Instead, leaders need to make themselves aware of what life is like for employees, living a day in their shoes. 

Check out Grahampton’s Article: “Leading in the COVID-19 Crisis: How Managers can become a Hero in 5 Minutes” for a practical approach to taking the pulse of employees.  

Physical Environment

Consider where exactly your employees are located. Do you employ suburbanites, who have been able to enjoy the spring weather and at-home workouts in the backyard? What about city dwellers who haven’t left the one-mile radius of their apartments in weeks? When you do open your office again, what does this mean for how your employees commute to work?  There are countless articles online regarding how offices need to be reconfigured in order to account for social distancing. As much as these articles are helpful from a facility and mechanical standpoint, virtually none discuss a process of reconfiguration where employees are part of the solution building team. A sense of safety starts in the mind, not in a new office layout.  Engage with employees - through an employee resource group, a business resource group, or an affinity group and allow bottom-up ideas and consensus to emerge. The more that employees feel they “own the restart and the office re-arrangement” the more likely they are to not fear coming into the office. Adjustments to the physical environment should be integrated with one’s change management agenda so that fears and concerns can be addressed with advanced communication.  

Social Environment

Knowing who else your employees are spending their lockdown days with can provide insight into their overall wellbeing. Are employees holed up at home with their entire families so you’ve noticed kids running around in the background of video calls? Does that mean employees are balancing their own workload with the home-workload of their children? Or do you have employees who have spent the last few weeks entirely alone, without even so much as a hug from a friend or loved one? Do you have employees who are taking care of a loved one at high risk to Covid-19?  Is it feasible for them to return to work? At what cost and at what risk to others?  

The point is that understanding that well-being will vary, and just because the office reopens, this does not mean their home life will get back to normal any time soon.

Check out the three part series on “Leading in the COVID-19 Crisis: Mindfulness, a Secret Weapon for High-impact Team Leaders” for detailed approaches on getting a handle on these sorts of issues. 

Financial Environment

Have you already decided to cut salaries or withhold bonuses and promotions? Have your remaining employees lost their coworkers due to layoffs? What about the other major employers in your area? Have your employee’s spouses, partners, and other family members been financially impacted?

All of these factors are contributing to an employee’s overall wellbeing. Some workers, without the social distractions and long commutes, have described a productivity surge in recent weeks. Others have turned to baking bread from scratch just to regain any sense of control over their lives. The reality is that a mindful approach to evaluating the state of your workforce is nuanced. Most likely there will be no one-size-fits-all answer when it comes to understanding the individual circumstances of each employee. 

But, the answers to these questions can begin to give you an understanding of how your employees are feeling right now, and how they feel right now will be indicative of their appetite or ability to head back into the office. When it comes time for a RESTART pilot-day, it will be helpful to know which employees have been living alone for weeks and may be ecstatic for a change of scenery. Alternatively, knowing which employees, whether because of childcare, health concerns, or long, high-risk commutes, will need more time to wrap their heads around restarting their work lives in our “new normal.”

In summary: To answer the question “What should be the TIMING of my RESTART?” a leader must be Situationally Aware and have an excellent understanding of not only the EXTERNAL MARKET & BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT forces their organization must address, but also the INTERNAL FORCES - namely, the HEALTH AND CAPACITY of their EMPLOYEES - that determine what is going to be even possible.   

If this perspective has been helpful, please watch for the next parts in this Grahampton series. PDF copies of this article will be available on Grahampton.com in the coming days.  

Next Parts in this Series:

Part 3 - A RESTART VISION that leads to a COMPETITIVE PEOPLE ADVANTAGE

Part 4 - The Tortoise, the Hare, and HR: who will win the RESTART RACE? 

Part 5 - BEST PRACTICES from those who are leading in the RESTART RACE.

Grahampton: Supporting organizations and their Restarts

Check out Grahampton & Co.’s support services for supporting “Restarts”, “Leading in Times of Crisis and Challenge” and the other work we do at www.grahampton.com. 

About the Authors: 

Peter R. Classen is a Chief Transformation Officer, crisis navigator and a speaker-author on “leadership in challenging, high-stress, and uncertain business environments.” As relevant to the RESTART conversation, he chaired for almost five years a multinational steering committee that built a playbook for governments to better manage Post-Disaster Reconstruction Programs. The work of his committee and the development team is in use in more than 25 countries around the globe. Over the past two and a half decades he has helped ~35 organizations respond, restart, and recover from disasters. Find Peter, our partners, and our teams at www.grahampton.com. 

Christine Zdelar is an Associate Partner of Grahampton, and an expert in change management - why it is necessary and how organizations can better design and manage their change agendas. Christine is known for her talent management capabilities, and especially for architecting people-first organization change strategies and for developing adaptable, highly-resilient, and ultra-productive teams. She works across industries from emerging tech start-ups to the Fortune 100 and has over a decade in the product development function. In addition to the HR consulting she currently supports, she is leading an international research effort exploring the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the employee psyche and how employees-of-the-near-future will think, act, and perform.